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1. Proximity to riots: Spatial exposure and attitudes toward the police in Africa

Author:
Souleymane Yameogo
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Riots have devastating consequences for communities, including the destruction of infrastructure, businesses, and human lives. The police, tasked with restoring order, are often perceived as either protectors or sources of threat and incompetence. This research investigates the impact of riot exposure on public trust in the police by incorporating both temporal and spatial dimensions of exposure, diverging from previous studies that focused solely on temporal effects. Using the terror management theory (TMT) framework, extended to inter-group conflict, this study conceptualises the police and the public as distinct groups whose behaviours and attitudes may conflict during riots. Matching geocoded Afrobarometer data with the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and employing a spatial difference-in-differences analysis, the study reveals a complex relationship between riot exposure and public trust in the police. While exposure to riots negatively impacts trust among residents living closer to riot sites – driven by heightened anxiety and direct exposure to violence – it increases trust among those living farther away. Furthermore, riot type and severity play crucial roles. Mob violence, with its chaotic nature, tends to bolster trust in the police, while violent demonstrations, which are more organised and often pursue political goals, do not. Moreover, lethal riots erode public trust in police more than non-lethal ones do. These findings underscore the importance of context-sensitive policing strategies that address the security concerns of riot-affected communities while maintaining trust across diverse populations. Policy makers must balance suppressing violence with building resilience and protecting vulnerable communities.
Topic:
Political Violence, Governance, Law Enforcement, Institutions, Police, Professionalism, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa

2. The Complexities of the Somaliland-Ethiopia Sea Access Deal

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
From 9 December 2023 to 19 January 2024, ACLED records nearly 300 political violence events and at least 726 reported fatalities in Somalia. Most political violence centered in Lower Shabelle region, where al-Shabaab targeted security forces and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Mudug region had the highest number of reported fatalities, with 412. Lower Juba region followed, with at least 121 reported fatalities. Most of the fatalities came after battles between al-Shabaab and security forces. The most common event type was battles, with over 500 events, followed by explosions and remote violence, with nearly 180 events. Most of the events involved clashes between security forces and al-Shabaab.
Topic:
Political Violence, Treaties and Agreements, Non State Actors, and Al Shabaab
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, Somaliland, and Horn of Africa

3. Kenya: Women and Lawyers Demonstrate Nationwide

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
From 13 January to 16 February 2024, ACLED records 80 political violence events and 52 reported fatalities in Kenya. Most events took place in Samburu county, which witnessed increased violence involving bandits who loot valuables, including cattle. Turkana county had the highest number of reported fatalities due to civilian targeting by unidentified gunmen during raiding. The most common event type was riots, with 35 recorded events, followed by violence against civilians, with 26 events.
Topic:
Political Violence, Women, Protests, Demonstrations, and Lawyers
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Horn of Africa

4. One Year of War in Sudan

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Since fighting first broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 15 April, ACLED records 5,550 events of political violence and more than 15,550 reported fatalities in Sudan. Between 15 April 2023 and 5 April 2024, the most political violence was recorded in Khartoum state, with over 3,660 events and over 7,050 reported fatalities.1 In all of Sudan, ACLED records over 1,400 violent events targeting civilians since the war began. Civilians in Khartoum state faced the most targeted violence, with more than 650 incidents and at least 1,470 reported fatalities. Targeted violence in Darfur was twice as likely to be deadly for civilians than targeted violence in other states in Sudan, with 32% of all reported civilian fatalities in the country being recorded in Darfur.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil War, Armed Forces, Civilians, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

5. India Votes 2024: A resurgent Hindu nationalism sets the stage for the upcoming elections, driving communal violence

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 22 January 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the Ram temple in Ayodhya at the site where the Babri mosque once stood, marking the unofficial start of the general elections campaign by his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).1 The construction of the temple, which had served as a rallying cry for Hindu nationalists since the mosque’s demolition by a Hindu mob, stirred up sentiments of Hindu pride across the country, with the BJP leading the celebrations.2 On the other hand, the principal opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC), boycotted the ceremony, accusing the BJP of politicizing religion.3 The fanfare surrounding the inauguration also overlooked the temple’s deadly origins, prompting concern over the turn toward majoritarianism in Indian society.4 The Babri mosque, constructed under the reign of the Mughal emperor Babar, was believed to have stood upon the birthplace of the Hindu Lord Ram, making it a point of contention between India’s Hindu and Muslim communities for nearly two centuries.5 Following nationwide mobilization by senior BJP leaders to reclaim the Ram Janmabhoomi (birthplace), a Hindu mob demolished the Babri Masjid on 6 December 1992.6 In the years since, the Ram Mandir (temple) remained a focal point of the Hindu nationalist movement, with the BJP at its forefront. A 2019 Supreme Court judgment awarding the disputed land to the Hindu applicants, finding they possessed a better title, ultimately paved the way for the temple’s construction, even as the court condemned the mosque’s demolition by the mob as an illegal act.7 The values of secularism and religious tolerance enshrined in India’s Constitution have long struggled against the realities of its demographics, where Hindus, comprising around 80% of the population, form the overwhelming majority.8 The gradual rise of the BJP, which views India foremost as a Hindu rashtra (nation), further increased the strain on these principles while also emboldening more radical Hindutva (Hindu nationalist) groups within the country.9 Among these is the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a right-wing Hindu paramilitary group that organized the Babri Masjid’s demolition.10 The BJP has strong ideological and organizational ties with the RSS; Modi himself began his political career as a religious volunteer with the group.11 The mainstreaming of Hindutva politics under the BJP has increased tensions between Hindus and religious minorities, sparking a resurgence in communal violence. India’s Muslim community, which is among the world’s largest Muslim populations, has borne the brunt of this violence. With the BJP galvanizing its supporters around the cause of Hindu nationalism ahead of the 2024 elections, the second part of ACLED’s India Elections Special Issue focuses on increased religious polarization as a driver for political violence across India.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Hindu Nationalism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

6. Faraway, so close: the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on political violence in Asian countries

Author:
Michele Di Maio, Valerio Leone Sciabolazza, Patricia Justino, and Cecilia Nardi
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We show that the Russia–Ukraine-war-induced changes in the international price of wheat affected political violence in Asia. Using data from 13 countries and more than four million cell-level observations, we show that a higher wheat price increases political violence in areas that are more suitable to produce that crop. We interpret this evidence as consistent with a rapacity effect being at play: the higher value of agricultural output increases the incentive to violently appropriate it. Our result is robust to a number of falsification and robustness tests. The effect is heterogeneous across countries and cell types: in line with our interpretation of the empirical findings, the effect is larger in countries that are net exporters of wheat and in cells that are rural. We also show that a higher price of wheat increases political violence more in countries that are low-income, fragile, and characterized by the presence of anti-government or terrorist groups, indicating that a higher value of crop production is more likely to fuel violence in areas that are poor or not politically stable.
Topic:
Political Violence, Instability, Russia-Ukraine War, and Wheat
Political Geography:
Asia

7. Neither Settler Nor Native:The Making and Unmaking of Permanent Minorities with Mahmood Mamdani

Author:
Mahmood Mamdani
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Professor Mahmood Mamdani examines how the colonial state and the nation-state have been mutually constructed through the politicization of a religious or ethnic majority at the expense of an equally manufactured minority. He proffers that political violence demands political solutions: not criminal justice for perpetrators but a rethinking of the political community for all survivors—victims, perpetrators, bystanders, beneficiaries—based on common residence and the commitment to build a common future without the permanent political identities of settler and native.
Topic:
Political Violence, Minorities, Colonialism, State, Identity, Settlers, and Natives
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. How does the attempted assassination of Trump affect the American political landscape?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On July 13, 2024, former U.S. President and current presidential candidate Donald Trump faced an assassination attempt during an election rally in Pennsylvania. This incident occurred just days before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where Trump is anticipated to be officially nominated as the party’s candidate for the November elections. The attempt resulted in Trump being grazed by a bullet on his ear. Following the incident, he posted on his "Truth Social" platform: "A bullet grazed the upper part of my right ear." The Secret Service announced in a statement that one attendee was killed, two others were critically injured, and the assassin was also killed. It is important to note that this is not the first instance of a failed assassination attempt on Trump. Each attempt came perilously close to succeeding, but the assailants were thwarted at the last moment.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Assassination
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

9. Five key takeaways from the 2024 elections in Mexico

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 2 June, Claudia Sheinbaum, running for the ruling National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) party, won the presidential election with almost 60% of votes, becoming the first female president in the country’s history. Alongside the presidential election, voters in Mexico concurrently participated in legislative, state, and municipal elections. The election was marred by assassinations and targeted attacks on candidates and other political figures. ACLED records over 330 incidents of violence targeting political figures during the election campaign, between the start of the federal campaign on 1 March and the voting day on 2 June. At least 95 incidents led to one or more reported deaths. The level of violence during this election campaign marks a record high that eclipses the violence recorded in the 2018 general and 2021 federal elections, which had 254 and 257 events, respectively. The heightened levels of violence during the 2024 campaign period also affected candidates who were not directly targeted in violent incidents. At least 553 candidates requested state protection after receiving threats,1 while others decided to withdraw from the race as a result of threats.2 Notwithstanding, none of the main presidential candidates have made substantial proposals to address this issue.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, Assassination, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

10. Eswatini’s June 2021 protests revisited: Understanding political violence in Eswatini

Author:
Sizwebanzi Mngomezulu
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
For most observers of the socio-political affairs of Eswatini (formerly Swaziland), the events of 29 June 2021 and those of earlier weeks leading up to them, presented a level of violence that the country has not experienced since independence. Indeed, it could be argued that the violence was unparalleled in the country’s modern history. Given the significance of this event, this article seeks to contextualise the conflict and examine whether the government has effectively dealt with the grievances of the protesters. It will argue that the disturbances of June 2021 were unique because they were largely non-partisan, led by groups of young people who wished to put police brutality to an end in the country. The article will also argue that whereas past protests usually took place in the main cities of the country, this time, they were spread throughout rural and urban communities, signalling a shift in the frustration locus. In elaborating on these two interconnected theses presented above, the article will proceed as follows: it will offer a concise narration of the events preceding the violence of 29 June 2021 that was centred on the death of the University of Swaziland law student Thabani Nkomonye. Thereafter, it will consider the call for an elected prime minister (PM) that came out of the protests, highlighting that these protesters were largely unaffiliated with the major political parties in the country, whose clarion call is multi-party democracy. The conclusion that will be drawn is that the authorities failed to respond to the initial concerns of the people due to the closed nature of the political system of the country and its ineffective citizen participation structures. The authorities thus chose a similar zero-sum approach after the conflict. The unfortunate consequence of this is that the country is likely to witness similar outbursts unless it deals with the root cause of the problem.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democracy, Impunity, Dialogue, and Political Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini