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11. The Worst Angels of Our Nature

Author:
Mason Richey and Rob York
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The last several reporting periods of Comparative Connections have featured little drama in US relations with the two Koreas. A lot of important changes happened—a burgeoning Washington-Seoul-Tokyo trilateral, Pyongyang’s advancing nuclear weapons program, etc.—but these developments were mostly incremental. However, the June-December 2024 reporting period—the final Comparative Connections—has featured bombshells, both metaphorically and literally. The most spectacular event was South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol going full rogue authoritarian and recklessly declaring martial law at 11pm on December 3 in order to carry out a military “self-coup d’état.” That is, Yoon annulled democratic processes and civil constitutional protections, arrogated all political and executive power to himself and the military, and attempted to suspend the national assembly. This shocking step toward tyranny—considered long-relegated to the distant past of South Korea’s developmental dictatorships of the 1950s-1980s—was as badly conceived as it was executed, farcically falling apart after less than three hours, when legislators (mostly from the opposition) breached the cordon of deployed soldiers around the national assembly, entered the plenary chamber, and voted 190-0 to revoke the martial law decree.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Domestic Politics, Coup, Donald Trump, and Trilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

12. The Number of Countries with Coups d’etats and Other Constitutional Changes in Government is Rising: How should donors stay engaged?

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Renata Dwan, Betty N. Wainaina, and Leah Zamore
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
Last week, CIC released a major new joint report with Chatham House on aid to “politically-estranged” settings – countries where donor relations with national authorities are frayed or broken because of unconstitutional changes in government, internationally contested elections, and major sanctions. Development aid to these countries has been suspended or severely curtailed, often because of domestic pressures to disengage, leaving the problem to traditional humanitarian approaches. In this report, CIC and Chatham House argue that development engagement is needed, and outline the ways to do so without legitimizing unconstitutional regimes, in concertation with regional actors. This piece focuses on two major areas: Why should donors care in this current moment? What has been new in our thinking about the major challenges and solutions for how to work in these contexts?
Topic:
Government, Constitution, Multilateralism, Coup, and Donors
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Fact Sheet: Attacks on Civilians Spike in Mali as Security Deteriorates Across the Sahel

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Violence targeting civilians has increased by 38% in Mali so far this year. The main perpetrators of these attacks are JNIM (over 180 events, 33%), Malian state forces and/or the Wagner Group (nearly 160 events, 29%), and IS Sahel (nearly 90 events, 15%). Battles and attacks have spread to new locations in northern Mali amid joint military and Wagner Group operations and the resumption of hostilities with Algiers Accord signatory armed groups. JNIM has also launched a new offensive, carrying out a series of large-scale attacks on military positions and imposing blockades on towns and major transit routes. Overall, in the wake of successive military coups promising to improve security across the region, political violence levels in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have together increased by 5% relative to the same period last year, and by 46% compared to 2021.
Topic:
Security, Violence, Coup, Civilians, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

14. Military coup in Niger: The legacies of colonialism and the US War on Terror in West Africa

Author:
Christopher Zambakari
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Niger is nearly 500 000 square miles of landlocked country bordered by no less than seven neighbouring states. It is a country saddled with a history of military interventions. However, most recently, under the leadership of President Mohamed Bazoum, it has been regarded as a ‘model of stability’ and ‘model of democracy’ in a region marred by political instability.1 Bazoum’s election in 2021 and the subsequent peaceful transition of power raised expectations of democratic rule and a renewed commitment to good governance. However, the military coup shattered those prospects and exposed the fragility of democracy in West Africa. In the current political upheaval, the key players include not just the domestic military forces, but also international powers. A legacy of French colonialism and the US Global War on Terror looms large over the region, casting its shadow on a complex narrative.2 However, the militarised ambitions of both regional and global actors prevail in West Africa and Niger again is caught in the crosshairs. As one considers the nuances of the situation, two compelling questions emerge: How has the militarisation of West Africa, explored through the lens of the War on Terror, set the stage for the recent coup in Niger, and what does this upheaval signify for the future of the region?3 Amidst the shifts in power, a closer examination of conflict connections and motivations reveals hidden agendas, geopolitical strategic moves, and the struggle for control in Niger.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Colonialism, War on Terror, Coup, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:
Africa, Niger, and United States of America

15. Cautious Pragmatism What is thе potential outcome of Washington's approach to thе Nigеr crisis?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On August 8, 2023, US Sеcrеtary of Statе Antony Blinkеn announcеd that diplomacy is thе prеfеrrеd way of rеsolving thе crisis causеd by thе coup in Nigеr. Following thе coup on July 26, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan strongly condemned any effort to detain or subvert thе functioning of Nigеr's dеmocratically еlеctеd govеrnmеnt, led by President Mohamеd Bazoum. Thеsе statements reflect thе ambiguity of Washington's stance regarding thе crisis in Nigеr.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Coup
Political Geography:
Africa, Niger, and United States of America

16. China’s Collaboration with the Myanmar Junta: A Case of Strategic Hedging?

Author:
Sudhan Rmachandran
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On June 27, in Kachin State, northern Myanmar, a convoy of vehicles carrying a Chinese delegation, including a consul, came under fire. The convoy was being guarded by Myanmar military and police personnel. While local media blamed the Lisu National Development Party, a military-aligned militia, the Myanmar junta held the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) — an ethnic armed organization (EAO) aligned with the anti-junta resistance— responsible for the attack (The Irrawaddy, June 30). Attacks on Chinese targets have grown in recent months in Myanmar. On May 7, the anti-junta Natogyi Guerrilla Force (NGF) attacked an off-take station in the Mandalay Region’s Natogyi Township due to its China-affiliated oil and gas pipeline. The attack came amid a surge in mass protests on the streets of Yangon, and the townships of Yinmabin, Salingyi and Letpadaung in Sagaing Region. Angry online campaigns criticizing Beijing’s support of “fascist criminals” — referring to the Myanmar generals — gained widespread public backing (Economic Times, May 15). On May 2, the surge in anti-China protests and violence came close on the heels of a meeting in Naypyidaw between Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Myanmar junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. Qin is the highest Chinese official to meet Min Aung Hlaing since the 2021 military coup, which overthrew the elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government (Frontier Myanmar, May 3). Since the junta’s rise to power, public ire in Myanmar has been directed not only at the military regime but also at China, the junta’s principal foreign backer. In the early days of the coup, crowds gathered outside the Chinese embassy in Yangon to protest against the alleged Chinese role in the insurrection (Times of India, February 14, 2021). Chinese-owned factories in Myanmar were damaged and burned, and Chinese workers were attacked (CGTN, March 14, 2021). With visible collaboration between the PRC and the junta growing, the targeting of Chinese projects and properties in Myanmar has grown in frequency and intensity. To cite one such instance, last April resistance groups fired missiles at factories manufacturing long-range rockets and surface-to-air missiles, specifically when Chinese and Russian military officials were visiting the facilities (Burma News International, April 8). As anti-China sentiment surges in Myanmar, it is likely that resistance groups will continue to deliberately target Chinese interests in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Coup, Strategic Interests, and Junta
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Myanmar

17. The Revolutionary Kids Are Alright: Egypt Ten Years after the Coup

Author:
Stephen R. Grand
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
A decade after the military staged a coup to regain control, Egypt’s revolutionary youth, who took to the streets in 2011 to topple long-time dictator Hosni Mubarak, are unmoved. They are perplexed and saddened by the dramatic turns their revolution has taken over the last dozen years, lurching from autocracy to nascent democracy and back again. But they still dare to dream of a better Egypt – one that emerges from its current political, economic and social crises more free and just and prosperous.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Arab Spring, Youth, Coup, and Revolution
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

18. The Coup Against the Third World: Chile, 1973

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Dossier no. 68 presents an analysis of the 1973 coup against Chile and its effects on the Third World and non-aligned countries.
Topic:
Economics, Sovereignty, Third World, Coup, and International Order
Political Geography:
Latin America and Chile

19. Military Intervention in Niger: Imperatives and Caveats

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Driven by various considerations, ECOWAS threatened to intervene militarily in Niger to repel the coup, but the complexities of the situation may hinder or even prevent it from achieving its objectives.
Topic:
Military Intervention, Coup, Regional Security, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:
Africa and Niger

20. A Silent Sangha? Buddhist Monks in Post-coup Myanmar

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Sangha, Myanmar’s Buddhist monastic community, has largely stayed out of politics since the 2021 coup. As youth take the vanguard of resistance, a long-term shift in the country’s civic life – and a conservative backlash – could be in the offing. The issue bears close watching.
Topic:
Religion, Coup, and Buddhism
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar