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2. Myanmar: Momentum from Operation 1027 Threatens Military Rule
- Author:
- Christian Jaffe and Christina De Paris
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Since launching Operation 1027 on 27 October 2023, the Brotherhood Alliance, alongside anti-coup forces, has made some of the most significant territorial gains since the 2021 coup, seizing military and police positions in Chin, Rakhine, northern Shan, and Mandalay. Failing to suppress Brotherhood gains, the military has turned to indiscriminate airstrikes and artillery shelling on civilians. Nonetheless, Operation 1027 has given momentum to other armed groups across the country, representing the most significant threat to the military junta since the 1 February 2021 coup.
- Topic:
- Coup, Armed Conflict, and Infographic
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia and Myanmar
3. What if…? 12 Dragon King scenarios for 2028
- Author:
- Florence Gaub
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- At first glance, this publication appears to be a collection of Early Warning essays – they are, to some extent, but they should not be exclusively read as such. Conventional Early Warning systems have a much shorter time horizon – normally hours, perhaps months at most – than these scenarios, and they are solely mitigation mechanisms, that is to say they provide no insight into how the event they are warning of can be avoided. They are thus not an intellectual thought exercise, but solely an alarm bell. Our Dragon Kings in this volume provide insight into how they can be avoided, but they also challenge our assumptions in more ways than one. They are therefore awareness-raisers no matter how credible or plausible you will find them. Just reading them will have a readiness-increasing effect. (In fact, the more absurd you find them, the more pronounced this is because your mind will learn more when the emotion they generate is greater.) These scenarios can become even more useful, however, if you use them for simulation exercises in a team. You can use them as a blueprint for a wider scenario exercise, whether one wishes to adopt a blue or red team approach to them, and ask questions such as: how could this have been prevented, what would have to be done? What are alternative pathways of this scenario that are even worse, and how can we prevent those? The most important aspect is that every exercise of this kind must lead to some concrete policy steps. Merely thinking about improbable futures is never enough – doing something about them is what makes them a useful policy-tool. In that case, they lead to active, rather than passive, engagement with the content, foster collaboration, encourage innovation, practice decision-making, provide a space for failure and experimentation with alternative courses of action. It is precisely because of this that scenarios are a common feature in military education, but they work just as well in any other strategic context – provided, time and space is made for it. If yes, they contribute to increasing preparedness and readiness, and accelerate the response time to surprise. What’s more, generally engaging in fringe thinking about the future will strengthen these capabilities no matter what kind of surprise eventually occurs. Much like how vaccines teach the immune system, disruptive thinking strengthens our neural networks, making us more resilient for extreme situations.
- Topic:
- NATO, Natural Disasters, Elections, Crisis Management, Coup, UN Security Council, Biological Weapons, Resilience, Arctic Council, and Readiness
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Iraq, Europe, India, Taiwan, Latin America, Nigeria, and Tunisia
4. Stabilization Policies After the Sahel Coups
- Author:
- Florence Schimmel and Armin Schäfer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The Sahel is increasingly ruled by authoritarian military regimes; co-operation with them towards goals such as stability and peace is becoming more and more difficult for Germany. Following the recent coups in Mali and Niger in particular, the question now is whether and how the previous stabilization policies can be continued. For around ten years, Germany, together with the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States, has been pursuing stabilization policies that focus on strengthening fragile governments. In the future, Germany must more clearly define which partners are considered legitimate and which fundamental principles should apply, notwithstanding the high degree of context-specificity.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Coup, and Stabilization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Kingdom, Germany, Sahel, and United States of America
5. Resurgence of Military Coups in Africa: Can the African Union and Regional Organizations Defend and Consolidate Democracy?
- Author:
- Joshua O. Bolarinwa
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Institution:
- Brazilian Journal of African Studies
- Abstract:
- This research evaluates the contemporary increase in military coups in Africa and analyses the effectiveness of the African Union (AU) and other regional institutions in safeguarding and promoting democratic government following existing frameworks and policies. The African Union’s framework for Unconstitutional Changes of Government (UCG) and its subsequent execution have faced significant problems in response to the recent revival. The African Union has garnered commendation for its stance in opposition to military coups. Nevertheless, it has been noted that the organization has exhibited inadequate engagement and delayed responsiveness in addressing instances of the unconstitutional exercise of power. Numerous historical figu-res have exhibited a proclivity for disregarding established institutions that have played a pivotal role in facilitating their ascent to positions of authority.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Coup, African Union, Military, and Regional Organizations
- Political Geography:
- Africa
6. An Iron Curtain in the Sahel
- Author:
- Kyle Robertson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Russia is taking advantage of recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to embed itself in the Sahel. However, its indiscriminate counterterrorism tactics come with a cost for their forces and the regimes it protects. Weak, corrupt governments with limited resources and active insurgencies set the conditions for military Juntas to seize power in Burkina Faso, Mali, and, most recently, Niger. The region’s militaries blamed persistent violence on civilian leaders and foreign forces–particularly France–that they viewed as inept. Additionally, the perceived interference of the United States and the failure of its counterterrorism policy to address local grievances drove recruitment for insurgent groups such as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Sahel. Russian disinformation–which, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, accounts for roughly half of disinformation campaigns in West Africa–compounded these failures by targeting the United States and using themes of anti-imperialism and neocolonialism to inflame anti-western sentiment. Once the coups occurred, the United States was required by law to cut off security assistance, ending more than a decade of investment in the Sahel’s security infrastructure and giving Russia an opening in the region.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Insurgency, Islamic State, and Coup
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso
7. Coups and social trust: Evidence from a natural experiment in Burkina Faso
- Author:
- Thomas Brailey, Robin Harding, and Thomas Isbell
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- How do coups affect social trust? Recent years have seen a dramatic increase in the prevalence of coups, in particular across West Africa. Although significant attention has been paid to the effects of other forms of political violence and instability on social trust, to date very little research has considered how social trust is affected by coups, which represent a distinctive form of intra-elite conflict. Building on insights from work in philosophy and social psychology, we conceptualise trust as an adaptive response to vulnerability. Coups represent moments of violent competition for power between elites that create uncertainty about the state as a provider of security and essential services. Consequently, we argue that social trust will increase in response to coups, as a means of offsetting this uncertainty and insecurity. We exploit a unique natural experiment in Burkina Faso to identify the causal effect of coups on social trust, using data from a survey that was in the field during September 2022, when Burkina Faso experienced its second coup of that year. This provides robust evidence that coups can increase social trust, and further analysis supports the proposed mechanism that increased social trust following the coup was a response to uncertainty and insecurity. For external validity, analysis of cross-national survey data from the Afrobarometer series suggests that the positive relationship between coup exposure and social trust holds more broadly.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Coup, and Social Trust
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Burkina Faso
8. Newly restructured, the Islamic State in the Sahel aims for regional expansion
- Author:
- Hén Nsaibia
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- A series of military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in recent years have transformed military dynamics in the region, shifting bilateral assistance from traditional Western partners like France and the United States to Russia, through mercenaries from the Wagner Group and its successor, Africa Corps. Despite these seismic changes, both the Islamist insurgency spearheaded by the local al-Qaeda offshoot, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), and the Sahel province of the Islamic State (thereafter, IS Sahel) conflict have intensified and increased. In the first half of 2024, reported fatalities across the three Sahelian states reached a record-high 7,620 — an increase of 9% compared to the same period in 2023, 37% compared to 2022, and a staggering 190% compared to 2021.
- Topic:
- Islamic State, Coup, Regional Security, and Islamic State in the Sahel
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso
9. Political transition and democratic challenges in central Sahel
- Author:
- Kellian Mbianda
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Historically, regime changes in both the global North and South are closely linked. The process of change often results in the establishment of democracy, a return to authoritarianism, or the emergence of revolutionary systems.1 The oscillation between non-representative regimes and democracy is frequently a consequence of political and social instability, originating from social and economic inequalities between the wealthy and the poor.2 As such, political transitions are often easier to achieve during periods of economic recession due to the lower associated costs. Economic hardships increase the likelihood of revolution or coups. Often, the impoverished majority resort to civil unrest to express dissatisfaction with the country’s low level of development and government mismanagement of public funds. This popular discontent is often accompanied by elite or military officers seizing power from the incumbent government, promising economic improvement or strengthened homeland security. Throughout history, many political transitions have occurred during economic recessions, including in Brazil (1964), Chile (1973), Argentina (1976), Burkina Faso (1983), Mali (1991), and Niger (1999).
- Topic:
- Democracy, Leadership, Coup, and Political Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sahel
10. Niger coup forces a rethink of EU and US security strategies
- Author:
- Andrew Lebovich
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- For a decade the European Union (EU) and the United States saw Niger as their most valuable and cooperative partner in the Sahel, but the military coup that struck Niger in 2023 changed that. As European states rethink their options in the Sahel, an understanding of what went wrong in Niger can shed light on how to rethink security assistance in the Sahel and in coastal West Africa. ‘Last man standing, last chance’ is how a European diplomat described Niger’s regional status less than two weeks before the coup that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum on 26 July 2023. The French departure from Mali in late 2022 and Burkina Faso in 2023, along with increasing pressure on United Nations forces and the European civilian and security training missions EU Training Mission (EUTM) and EU Capacity Assistance Programme (EUCAP) in Mali, left Niger as the last stronghold for the EU and international community to maintain regional counterterrorism operations and influence with a willing partner. This shift raised concerns that the relatively better security situation in Niger, compared to its central Sahelian neighbours, was at risk should Niger falter in its security stance and commitments and, since the coup, many of the worst fears of European and American actors have come true. Attacks have increased, with some of them disturbingly close to Niger’s capital Niamey. The Conseil National pour la Sauvegarde de la Patrie (CNSP), the military junta which assumed control after the coup, swiftly cut ties with the country’s prior security partnerships, opting for a different direction that includes Russian trainers, equipment and possibly other security assistance, although there is no evidence that Russia had a hand in the coup itself. Thus far this presence is significantly smaller than in Mali, where Russian-financed mercenaries operate in significant numbers. Most strikingly, French soldiers were ordered to leave the country within weeks of the coup. Following an unsuccessful meeting between a high-level American delegation and Nigérien junta leaders in March 2024, American forces were also pushed out, with their withdrawal to be completed by September 2024.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, European Union, and Coup
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Sahel, and Niger