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1. Exploring the Impact of Behavioural Factors and Personality Traits on Private Pension System Participation: A Machine Learning Approach

Author:
Can Verberi and Muhittin Kaplan
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This study aims to investigate the effects of personality traits, in addition to basic financial literacy, private pension literacy and behavioural factors on Private Pension System (PPS) participation using machine learning algorithms. The PPS participation model was trained using both random forest and LightGBM algorithms, and the contributions of model inputs in the prediction of pension participation were interpreted using the Tree SHAP algorithms with swarmplots. The data employed in the empirical analysis is survey data collected from the Şırnak province of Türkiye with a sample size of 449. The findings of the study shows that: (i) PPS participation is more likely for females and middle-aged people; (ii) High basic financial literacy has a negative impact on PPS participation; (iii) Extraversion is the key personality trait affecting PPS participation; (iv) Advanced pension literacy has more impact on participation than simple pension literacy: (v) Present-fatalistic tendency is key behavioural factor and it negatively affects PPS; (vi) Present-hedonistic, conscientiousness, future-time orientation, and locus of control tendencies increase PPS participation. Furthermore, the distribution of colours in LightGBM has a greater degree of uniformity in both directions compared with the random forest algorithm. Finally, to increase PPS participation, the results of the study suggest the implementation of the following policy measures: Tailored pension literacy programmes can help to increase pension participation rates. Incentives should be created to prevent narrow-minded behaviour and establish a sense of protection and control around PPS, targeting middle-aged individuals and women.
Topic:
Economics, Behavior, Pension, Machine Learning, and Personality
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

2. Relationship between Organic Agriculture And GDP Per Capita, Economic Growth, and Unemployment: Panel Data Analysis

Author:
Kurtuluş Merdan
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
The increase in the world population recently has also increased the need for agricultural products. The need for food products has made it necessary to obtain more products per unit area. At this point, producers have focussed on the use of hormones, chemicals, and fertilisers to increase productivity and meet the demand for cheap food, and the process that increases production in the short term has become a threat to human health in the long term. Over time, the negative effects of chemicals on humans and the environment were observed, forcing producers to seek new methods. This process has led to independent studies on organic agriculture in every country. In this study, the effects of organic agriculture on some economic variables were revealed. In this context, the analyses focus now the variables of area allocated to organic agriculture on a regional basis, production amount and number of producers affected GDP per capita, economic growth, and unemployment in Turkey between 2003 and 2021. The scientific dimension of the study was prepared using data obtained from domestic and foreign literature and the electronic database of the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock. In this study, in which panel data analysis was used, EViews 12 programme was employed. For the variables used in the study, the geographical region cross-section dependence was determined, and the stationarity of the series was examined with the CIPS (Cross-Sectionally Augmented IPS) unit root test. As a result of the study, it was determined that organic production amount, number of organic farmers, and organic production area did not have a significant effect on economic growth and unemployment. Organic production area and the number of organic farmers had a positive and significant effect on GDP per capita, but the amount of organic production did not have a significant relationship.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, GDP, Economic Growth, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

3. A Better Proxy for Technology Determinant of Economic Growth: The International Digital Economy and Society Index

Author:
Elif Asoy
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
The importance of information communication technology in fueling economic growth is widely acknowledged. In the current digital era, the International Digital Economy and Society Index (I-DESI) offers a more precise depiction alternative to the ICT indicators by serving as a better proxy for changes in the factors of production. It monitors the advancement of ICT in the EU27 and 14 non-EU nations, highlighting their strides towards a technologydriven economy. The objective of the study was to evaluate the influence of the I-DESI on economic growth through the utilization of the panel data method. Hence, gross domestic product (GDP) measured at constant prices was utilized as the dependent variable in the analysis, while the Index of Digital Economy and Society Integration (I-DESI), calculated by the European Commission, served as the independent variable. However, it’s important to note that the described index is current and limited at present. In line with this constraint, only four years of data, spanning from 2015 to 2018, were available. To ensure the accuracy of the model, diagnostic tests were conducted, and the Driscoll-Kraay standard error model was employed to assess the outcomes. Two models were constructed to achieve this goal, with the initial one revealing the relationship between the I-DESI and economic growth. The second model aimed to pinpoint the dimensions of the I-DESI that had the greatest impact on growth. According to findings obtained from the analysis, I-DESI and certain subdimensions which are digital skills, use of internet, integration of digital technology, and digital public services affect economic growth positively and significantly. A one percent increase in I-DESI results in a one percent increase in GDP. Similarly, each subdimension mentioned, where meaningful relationships have been identified, possesses explanatory power for GDP. Furthermore, evaluating the coefficient of these independent variables, changing the weight of dimensions can be considered.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Public Policies on the Socioeconomic Effects of Migration

Author:
Ezgim Yavuz and Nazan Susam
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
To develop a public policy, it is important to understand the experiences of forced migrants. This study reveals the effects of forced migration on public finances in countries hosting displaced people. In this context, public policy support for access to basic humanitarian needs such as education and health, which are semi-public goods, will be evaluated through a quantitative analysis. Interviews with refugees within the scope of this research draw a picture of the current situation. Thus, evaluating the effectiveness and shortcomings of existing policies and determining the policy support needed are among the unique values of this research. Since migration is a dynamic process, it is also aimed to provide a basis for future studies in this field and to reveal the current situation.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Health, Migration, Refugees, Public Policy, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

5. Panel Causality Analysis of the Relationship among the Rule of Law, Technological Advances, Competitiveness, and Value-Added

Author:
Doğan Keşap and Ali Rıza Sandalcılar
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
The status of countries within the global value chain varies depending on the importance of national production capabilities in the global economy. From this perspective, there is a need for a value-added production approach that focuses on innovation and competitiveness. Technological advances and institutions are considered to play a significant role in transforming the economy towards an innovation-driven one to meet these needs. The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship among technological advances, the rule of law as a proxy for institutions, value-added production, and competitiveness in a way that reflects crosscountry divergence. Through an analysis employed independently of countries’ existing levels of development, it will be possible to evaluate whether the factors associated with institutions and innovation can produce similar results in all circumstances and for each country. In this context, a panel causality analysis that considers cross-sectional heterogeneity is employed. The analysis shows bidirectional causality between the variables, except for value-added to the rule of law. However, the results also support the existence of cross-country divergence. These findings suggest that future policy plans should be designed to consider the multidimensional nature of country-specific factors, alongside technological advances and the rule of law, and to ensure the integration of both national and international economic objectives.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Rule of Law, Competition, and Value-added Production
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Contribution of Finance and Transport Indicators on Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Eurasian Countries

Author:
Kenan Ilarslan and Tuğrul Bayat
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Carbon emission is one of the most significant causes of environmental degradation, global warming, and extraordinary meteorological events. It has reached a level that threatens the future of countries and human beings. To combat carbon emission, it is necessary to know the causes for developing policies. Environmental quality is a fundamental aspect of sustainable development in economies worldwide. In this context, Eurasian geography has always been an important region in the history of the world with its location, underground, and surface resources. Today, the region makes its strategic importance even more evident. The communist USSR ruled Eurasian countries, which served as a buffer between the Western world and China for many years. These countries, which gained their independence in the 1990s, have not yet fully captured the values of the modern world, such as democracy and a free market economy. This study focuses on Eurasian countries. This study aimed to determine the factors affecting carbon emissions. Foreign direct investment and transportation contribute significantly to carbon emission, which reduces environmental quality. Therefore, in this study, we investigated whether rail and road passenger transport and foreign direct investment affect carbon emission in Eurasian countries. The concurrent panel quantile regression method was used to estimate this relationship between 1992 and 2020. The results revealed that rail and road passenger transport and foreign direct investment increase emissions. Additionally, no clear result could be obtained regarding the effect of the GDP per capita variable. To support these findings, analyses were performed using the robust quantile regression method, and strong empirical evidence was obtained, particularly for the impacts of foreign direct investment and rail passenger transport on emissions.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, Transportation, Carbon Emissions, and Quantile Regression
Political Geography:
Eurasia

7. Panel Data Analysis of Export Structure and Growth: Case of BRICS-T Countries

Author:
Necip Dündar and Yüksel Bayraktar
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Realisation of specialisation in areas dominated by technological production structure and the technological level of exported goods are essential determinants of macroeconomic performance. Therefore, the export structure and technological level of exported goods are highly significant. In this study, the relationship between real GDP and exports of goods produced in BRICS-T countries with low, medium, and high levels of skill and technology is investigated. In the panel data analysis using data for the period 1995–2020, the cointegration relationship between the variables was examined, and it was concluded that there is no long-run relationship between real GDP and goods produced in labour-resource intensive, low, medium, and high skill and technology levels of countries. In addition, a causality test using Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) linear heterogeneous model was carried out. The test results showed a unidirectional causality relationship between real GDP and goods with low and high skill and technology but a bidirectional causality relationship between real GDP and labour-resource-intensive goods.
Topic:
Science and Technology, GDP, Economic Growth, Exports, and BRICS
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Empirical Analysis of Turkish Banking Sector Institutional and Macroeconomic Determinants of Risks

Author:
Hikmet Akyol and Selim Başar
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This research examines the macroeconomic and institutional sources of individual, systemic, and systematic risks in the Turkish banking sector. The period between 2008:Q3 and 2019:Q3 of the nine deposit banks selected for this purpose were estimated using panel data analysis estimators. The results indicate that selected macroeconomic and institutional variables affect banking risks. These findings are important for revealing the institutional and macroeconomic sources of risks in the Turkish banking sector. Therefore, the results contain significant propositions for researchers, market participants, and politicians. Market participants and researchers can anticipate defaults and financial instability using selected macroeconomic and institutional variables. The estimation results reveal Turkish banks’ institutional soundness and financial performance strength. In addition, the extent to which banks are effective intermediaries in the sector was analysed. This research documented a strong link between global market indicators and banking risks.
Topic:
Finance, Macroeconomics, Risk, and Banking
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

9. Analysis of Istanbul Stock Market Returns Volatility with ARCH and GARCH Models

Author:
İpek M. Yurttagüler
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
In today’s world where globalization is intensely experienced, differences in risk perception, developments in capital markets, and the negativities faced in the markets due to uncertainty are very important when researching the structures of the stock markets, and therefore determining current volatilities. One of the biggest problems encountered is the inability to price stocks effectively. Therefore, estimating and modeling volatility becomes crucial. The diversity of the portfolio, created by international investors in the financial markets and the sustainability of their investment decisions, are closely related to the volatility variable. However, the fact that financial markets are more fragile in developing countries increases the importance of volatility. There are many different methods in the literature when estimating volatility. Due to the inadequacy of traditional time series models in estimating volatility, conditional heteroskedasticity models are used with ARCH and GARCH class models being frequently used. In this study, the series of daily opening values of the ISE100 Index covering from 02.01.2003 to 30.09.2022 was estimated using ARCH/GARCH models for volatility with the aim to determine which model has the higher explanatory power. According to the findings, the GARCH(1,1) model gave more meaningful results in explaining the ISE100 return volatility.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Stock Markets, and Volatility
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

10. Decoding Inflation: Role of Institutional Quality in Türkiye Using Advanced Econometric Techniques

Author:
Yıldırım Beyazıt Çiçen
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Persistent inflation remains a significant economic challenge in Türkiye. The causes of high inflation have been examined through various factors, including supply and demand, as well as monetary and fiscal policies. However, few studies have included institutional factors in their analyses. The objective of this study is to determine whether institutional quality affects inflation in Türkiye. A novel and robust econometric analysis method is employed in this study. Between 2005 and 2019, the inflation rate, the International Country Risk Guide’s (ICRG) Political Risk Rating index, which measures the quality of institutional structure, and the changes in currency exchange rate basket variables in Türkiye were examined using the Fourier KPSS stationarity test and the Fourier Shin cointegration test. The results of the analysis indicate that inflation rate is co-integrated with institutional quality. The deterioration of institutional quality in Türkiye between 2005 and 2019 has been associated with an increase in inflation. While the implicit inflation targeting period in the inflation targeting regime implemented in Türkiye after 2002 was relatively successful, the explicit inflation targeting period failed to reduce inflation. The primary reason for the inability to achieve the specified inflation targets during these periods is the deterioration in the quality of institutions. It is also important to note that central bank independence is not immune to political influence and is one of the most important factors affecting inflation targeting.
Topic:
Institutions, Inflation, Central Bank, and Econometrics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East