Search

Begin New Search Journal Fletcher Security Review

1. Fletcher, Russia, and a Path Forward: A Conversation with Evelyn Farkas

Author:
Evelyn Farkas
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
I always tell the young people: always ask. If you see something you want to do, an opportunity… I was at the Council on Foreign Relations, and I heard about a trip to Hungary, and this was in 1989, and the Wall had just come down, and I was really junior, and I just asked. I said, “Look, I speak fluent Hungarian; maybe you can use me as your rapporteur on this trip.” And in fact, the first time I asked, the Vice President said, “Oh, I don’t know if we have the money.” So I did some quick calculations because I knew at the time that a charter flight to Hungary was like $600, or something, round-trip from New York. So I said, “Well, I’ll pay my airfare.” It is a good thing I didn’t offer to pay for the hotel because they stayed in quite a swanky hotel. But the lesson I learned was: Oh my god! You have to ask! So, I think always ask and be open to opportunities. You can’t plan your career. I had this hokey calendar growing up with little phrases. One that always stuck with me was, “Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.” You’re getting prepared at Fletcher, and then your luck is going to be when you’re already prepared, and some opportunity comes along. You can take that opportunity because you’re prepared and because you have the guts to take it.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Memoir, and Interview
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and United States of America

2. The Past, Present, and Future of Realism: A Conversation with Stephen M. Walt—February 2024

Author:
Stephen M. Walt
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
I liked realism from the start because I thought it did a much better job of explaining how states behave than other theories. It is not perfect, and it’s not that other perspectives don’t make their own contributions to our understanding, but I felt that realism had a much better track record in explaining how countries behaved. It also had extraordinary range across time and space: realist ideas could explain a lot about how empires acted, how city-states acted, how nation-states acted. It had explanations for why wars occur, why alliances form, why some states rise and fall. So it had a very wide applicability. And I thought that the main modern rivals to realist theory just weren’t as persuasive. Liberal theories didn’t predict that well. A good liberal would think that democracies would act fundamentally differently than autocracies, but the evidence that they do is limited. And as we talked about before, realism tells you that international law or norms will be of only limited value in controlling what the most powerful states will do.
Topic:
International Affairs, Democracy, Realism, and State
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. The Problem with Power: Taiwan in the Era of Great Power Competition

Author:
Joey Ching Aracena
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The United States and the PRC hold opposing positions on the “Taiwan Question.” The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act affirms U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s defense by providing weapons and services to promote Taiwan’s self-defense capability.” The Act also considers “any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means...a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States.” Conversely, the PRC emphasizes that Taiwan “reunification” is a strategic priority that “cannot be dragged on generation after generation.” At the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), PRC President Xi Jinping stated, “We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification… but we will never promise to renounce the use of force.” Despite the PRC’s coercive behavior and sharpened rhetoric, Taiwan refuses to accept “reunification” under the PRC’s proposed “One Country, Two Systems” model. ​ Nevertheless, the United States and the PRC both discourage Taiwan’s independence. Both states understand that if Taiwan were to formally declare independence, it would compel both parties to respond, potentially escalating towards military conflict. By attempting to influence Taiwan’s behavior, both great powers implicitly recognize Taiwan’s role in making or breaking their respective strategies. In this way, Taiwan maintains a powerful point of leverage in the “Triangular Relationship,” as it could take actions that trigger future conflict between the United States and the PRC.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4. A Wicked Problem: Assessing the Future Jihadist Threat

Author:
Colonel Daniel R. Moy
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The tensions between nationalist, regional, and global terrorist agendas, further complicated by the Shia and Sunni divide, help illuminate the “wicked” nature of the jihadist problem. Far from monolithic, the enemy in the war on terror is a confederation of competing actors joined together in a shared contempt for Israel, the West, and apostate governments. The ideological currents that fuel these religious and political movements are diverse and continuously activated along independent, mutually-supporting pathways—revolutionary, sectarian, regional anti-West, or global-caliphate strains—that tend to immunize the organizations themselves against hierarchical fragility or decapitation. While counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria may have weakened terrorist capabilities in the short term, they have had the opposite effect on the global map, driving organizations like al Qaeda and ISIS to pursue alternate strategies and discover new safe havens. The alarming reality is that despite our extensive, combined efforts to curb the threat of jihadist terrorism, the problem has only morphed and metastasized since 9/11.​
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Ideology, Jihad, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Middle East and Global Focus

5. Strategic Instability: Challenges for Deterrence and the Changing Character of Warfare

Author:
Philip Ritcheson
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The Cold War was replaced by what the late commentator Charles Krauthammer termed a “Unipolar Moment.” The Soviet Union disintegrated without the Cold War turning hot, and the United States led a broad international coalition to reinforce the rules-based international order in the First Persian Gulf War. Some thought that without an ideological alternative to liberalism, there was an “end to history.” Meanwhile, a sense of strategic complacency set into the United States as it forgot that it needed to compete geostrategically, resulting in hubris. Still, the United States was in an enviable position of not having to seriously account for strategic escalation with an adversary. That said, autocracy regained its footing in Russia, and a multi-dimensional form of competition emerged with China. In the background, terrorists planned, prepared, and conducted the September 11, 2001 attacks, and the United States focused on the Global War on Terror and linkages between rogue regimes, terrorists, and Weapons of Mass Destruction. In Europe, a growing NATO alliance seemed more focused on diplomatic engagement than military capability development and deterrence.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Deterrence, Instability, and Warfare
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

6. Countering Terrorism in a Period of Great Power Competition

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Over more than 20 years, the U.S. built a counterterrorism enterprise that proved remarkably successful at preventing another catastrophic terrorist attack like September 11. By investing heavily in counterterrorism over such a long period of time, America not only created new agencies dedicated to fighting terrorism but also systems that enabled the military and other security agencies to carry out a high rate of operations across multiple geographic areas, supported by unique collection platforms and tools. These further benefited from robust intelligence analysis capabilities that translated vast amounts of collected information into timely and actionable intelligence. But the inherent tradeoff was that all those dollars, intelligence resources, and more went to support primarily kinetic missions. Thus, two factors—widening the national security aperture to address other priority threats and making the counterterrorism mission more sustainable over the long term—now underlie the need to rationalize counterterrorism efforts. Today, the threats that demand quick, dedicated investments emanate from states like China and Russia and from emerging transnational threats such as climate change and pandemic preparedness.
Topic:
Intelligence, Counter-terrorism, Strategic Competition, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

7. NATO’s “Back to the Future”: A Conversation with Dr. Benedetta Berti

Author:
Benedetta Berti
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
In 2022, the Concept was written right in the middle of Russia’s brutal war of aggression against Ukraine. All of those assumptions that we had in 2010 simply don’t work. The potential of conventional war cannot be dismissed. The notion that the Euro-Atlantic area is an area of stability and predictability—well, the reality is that those tools that provide for predictability and stability are all under tremendous pressure. So this Concept starts by saying: unfortunately, our security environment is the most complex that we’ve had for generations, and we need to act and prepare accordingly. One of the priorities is to rebuild the ability to ensure the territorial defense of Allies and to rebuild our deterrence and defense posture in a way that is credible for what is essentially a much more competitive world. So that’s a big change. It’s just beyond words. If you accept that assessment, it requires a significantly more robust investment in defense, in rebuilding our militaries, in investing in the right capabilities, and in rebuilding our defense industry. So, it is a generational shift.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Instability, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

8. Strange Intimacies: Indo-Afghan Relations and the End of the War on Terror

Author:
Mou Banerjee
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Riding the Afghan tiger has always been an incredibly risky venture, as history is witness, and getting off safely has almost always been impossible. There is no reason to believe that the new political dispensation in Afghanistan will not experience or exercise more violent changes in the near future. This is a tinderbox situation, and as always, Afghanistan is serving as a proxy for external neo-imperial ideologies and political maneuvers. This genealogical pattern is not unfamiliar to historians—Afghanistan served the same purpose in the nineteenth century between Britain and Russia, in the twentieth century between the USSR and the United States at the height of the Cold War, and in the twenty-first century between the so-called enlightened and liberal Western world order led by the United States and the dark forces of “jihadi” terrorism. China, India, and Pakistan are perhaps setting the board for a new iteration of this eternal “Great Game.”
Topic:
Security, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and War on Terror
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and India

9. Grayzone Aggression: The Need for Deterrence by Denia

Author:
Elisabeth Braw
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Cyber deterrence needs to rely on a combination of deterrence by punishment of select attacks and deterrence by denial. By definition, punishment means that deterrence has failed, but given that it’s impossible to deter all cyber attacks and intrusions, Western governments with offensive cyber capabilities could retaliate against specific cyber attackers. The harm done to targets of such retaliation and the arbitrary nature of how they’re selected for punishment would increase the cost in most cyber attackers’ cost-benefit analysis. The public also expects the government to avenge, particularly egregious cyber attacks.
Topic:
Security, Cybersecurity, Deterrence, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Aerial Drones in the Ukraine War: An Assessment of Russian Capabilities

Author:
Samuel Bendett
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Both Russian and Ukrainian forces are now working with groups of drones launched against adversary positions. This often involves different drone types working in pairs—such as an intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) drone directing and guiding a loitering munition to a target. There is growing evidence that Ukrainian forces are using these tactics to identify and target Russian positions. A typical group raid on the Russian trenches involves one drone to draw the attention of a counter-UAV unit, exposing their position, while other drones subsequently attack exposed soldiers.
Topic:
Intelligence, Weapons, Drones, Surveillance, Reconnaissance, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine