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1. Political transition and democratic challenges in central Sahel

Author:
Kellian Mbianda
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Historically, regime changes in both the global North and South are closely linked. The process of change often results in the establishment of democracy, a return to authoritarianism, or the emergence of revolutionary systems.1 The oscillation between non-representative regimes and democracy is frequently a consequence of political and social instability, originating from social and economic inequalities between the wealthy and the poor.2 As such, political transitions are often easier to achieve during periods of economic recession due to the lower associated costs. Economic hardships increase the likelihood of revolution or coups. Often, the impoverished majority resort to civil unrest to express dissatisfaction with the country’s low level of development and government mismanagement of public funds. This popular discontent is often accompanied by elite or military officers seizing power from the incumbent government, promising economic improvement or strengthened homeland security. Throughout history, many political transitions have occurred during economic recessions, including in Brazil (1964), Chile (1973), Argentina (1976), Burkina Faso (1983), Mali (1991), and Niger (1999).
Topic:
Democracy, Leadership, Coup, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

2. Military coup in Niger: The legacies of colonialism and the US War on Terror in West Africa

Author:
Christopher Zambakari
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Niger is nearly 500 000 square miles of landlocked country bordered by no less than seven neighbouring states. It is a country saddled with a history of military interventions. However, most recently, under the leadership of President Mohamed Bazoum, it has been regarded as a ‘model of stability’ and ‘model of democracy’ in a region marred by political instability.1 Bazoum’s election in 2021 and the subsequent peaceful transition of power raised expectations of democratic rule and a renewed commitment to good governance. However, the military coup shattered those prospects and exposed the fragility of democracy in West Africa. In the current political upheaval, the key players include not just the domestic military forces, but also international powers. A legacy of French colonialism and the US Global War on Terror looms large over the region, casting its shadow on a complex narrative.2 However, the militarised ambitions of both regional and global actors prevail in West Africa and Niger again is caught in the crosshairs. As one considers the nuances of the situation, two compelling questions emerge: How has the militarisation of West Africa, explored through the lens of the War on Terror, set the stage for the recent coup in Niger, and what does this upheaval signify for the future of the region?3 Amidst the shifts in power, a closer examination of conflict connections and motivations reveals hidden agendas, geopolitical strategic moves, and the struggle for control in Niger.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Colonialism, War on Terror, Coup, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:
Africa, Niger, and United States of America

3. Military Coups in Africa: A Continuation of Politics by Other Means?

Author:
Nana Amoateng
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The military has been an important institution for protecting States from external threats since antiquity. In fulfilling this fundamental role, military institutions have also posed security risks to their own governments, given that the ‘ability to use coercive force, though necessary to defend the nation against threats, creates the danger that the military will turn its weapons on the very regime that empowered its existence’.[1] Military personnel can fuel civil conflicts and undermine the stability of political regimes mostly in States with loose political control of the military. As Douglass North, John Wallis and Barry Weingast have argued, ‘Societies experiencing a civil war, by definition, do not have consolidated control of the military’.[2] In Africa, military institutions have, on one hand, helped to protect States from both internal and external threats, including local insurgencies. On the other hand, they have destabilised several political regimes through coup d’états. Military coups – ‘when the military, or a section of the military, turns its coercive power against the apex of the state, establishes itself there, and the rest of the state takes its orders from the new regime’[3] – have been relatively common in post-independent African States,[4] thereby raising several issues, including how to understand the relationship between politics and military coups. This article contributes to the discussion by highlighting how coups are a continuation of politics by other means, particularly in West Africa.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Leadership, Coup, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa

4. A New Coup Era for Africa?

Author:
Jonathan Powell, Abigail Reynolds, and Mwita Chacha
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
It was not long ago that the decline of coups was being celebrated, not just in Africa, but globally. New African magazine asked in Fall 2015 why coups are going out of style.[1] Writing in September 2017, Schiel and her co-authors pointed to a two-year period since the last attempted coup in Africa, with the continent approaching three full years since the last successful attempt.[2] A month later, former Malian Foreign Minister Kamisssa Camara – even in the context of herself serving shortly after a coup –suggested that ‘the time for coups is over’.[3] Though perhaps not a long period at first glance, this was the longest coup-less stretch in Africa since decolonisation. Various efforts have been made to explain this shift, including the institutionalisation of more open political systems and the role of external actors such as the African Union (AU).[4] Though the November 2017 coup against Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe was a new coup, coups remained something of an afterthought in subsequent years. More recently, commentary at the Council on Foreign Relations concluded that ‘old style’ coups in which soldiers attempted to seize power had been supplanted by incumbents scheming to maintain it.[5] This has changed since August 2020, with successful coups taking place in Chad, Guinea, and twice in Mali as well as a failed effort to seize power in Niger, and both a failed and successful coup in Sudan. This apparent resurgence in the phenomenon has prompted much discussion on the causes of these events, whether they are related, and what – if anything – the region can do to buck the trend. Independent African states have experienced over 200 coup attempts since 1950, of which over 100 have succeeded (see Figure 1).[6]
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Coup, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa

5. Reflecting on the Role of Regional and International Interventions in Resolving the Post-coup Crisis in Sudan

Author:
Clayton Hazvinei Vhumbunu
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The overthrow of Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir from the presidency of Sudan by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) on 11 April 2019, following several months of protests and civil uprisings by Sudanese citizens, resulted in a prolonged governance and political crisis. Al-Bashir, who was a SAF lieutenant general, came to power in June 1989, through a military coup d’état staged against Sadiq al-Mahdi, who was the then-prime minister of Sudan. Al-Bashir had been in power for almost 30 years, making him one of the longest-serving presidents on the continent. Following his ousting on 11 April 2019, internal political players and stakeholders – mainly the ruling Transitional Military Council (TMC) and a coalition of protesters and opposition groups, led by the Alliance for Freedom and Change/Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) in Sudan – failed to speedily agree and settle on an effective transitional governance authority.
Topic:
Governance, Social Movement, Military Intervention, Protests, Coup, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan