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31. From Buffer to Frontier: Ukraine and the EU

Author:
Sven Biscop
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In June 2022, the European Union granted candidate status to Ukraine. A strong political statement, which was welcomed as such in Kyiv. But for a country at war, symbols do not suffice. Accepting a neighbour that is under invasion as a candidate for membership must mean accepting more responsibility for that neighbour’s survival. Ukraine was a buffer state; it has become a frontier state. The EU should finally come up with an overall plan to provide military support to Ukraine over the long term, gradually taking over the main effort from the United States. After one year of war, the time for piecemeal decisions (a dozen tanks now, another dozen in a month) is long past.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

32. Here are Four Things the West gets Wrong about Africa

Author:
Nina Wilén
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
External powers are intensifying their efforts to woo African states and their leaders in a context of Great Power Competition. Russian, Chinese and Western leaders are upping their game with new visits, initiatives, investments and strategies aimed at increasing their influence on the continent. Yet, while Western states spend comparatively large financial and human resources in Africa, these investments do not always seem to translate into the intended effects. This brief looks at four things that the West gets wrong about Africa and argues that to create long-term and credible partnerships with African partners there is a need to go beyond the Great Power Competition lens, lower the ambitions, and dial down on the normative language. This, while realising that presence does not equal influence, but absence almost certainly excludes it.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, and Europe

33. Uncovering uncomfortable truths: the geopolitics of EU gas imports in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine

Author:
Moniek de Jong
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
With the conclusion of the winter season, it appears that the European Union (EU) has successfully avoided the anticipated gas shortages and blackouts. This outcome can be attributed to a mild winter, a decrease of 13% in gas consumption, and a substantial influx of LNG imports. While the EU can breathe a sigh of relief, there is no room for complacency. The unprecedented LNG imports and significant decline in Russian gas imports have altered the EU’s gas import profile, and the potential security risks associated with these “new” gas suppliers have received little attention. This begs the question of whether this new natural gas import portfolio is truly advantageous and what alternatives the EU has.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Gas, Imports, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

34. Bring back the spirit of PESCO!

Author:
Beatriz Cózar Murillo
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Five years after the launch of the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), and five waves of projects later, it is the right time to ask whether the tool still corresponds to what its designers had in mind. Is this the PESCO we want? The spirit of PESCO PESCO is one of the main tools in the hands of the EU Member States to further the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). It is a dynamic instrument: in the last five years seventy-two projects have been launched – which could be considered a success –while progress has been made in fulfilling the most binding commitments assumed by the participating Member States (pMS) – albeit not to the desired degree. Yet PESCO faces a series of obstacles and debates that may lead to question its validity and future. Shortly after the approval of a fifth wave of projects, and in view of the fact that the review of the PESCO mechanism will begin in 2024, now is the time to ensure that it is on track.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Strategic Partnerships, and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO)
Political Geography:
Europe

35. Unlocking Global Gateway towards the Green Transition

Author:
Marie Dejonghe
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In December 2021, the president of the European Commission Ursula Von der Leyen unveiled Global Gateway. With an investment package of 300 billion euros, compromising both public and private funds, the Global Gateway seeks to accelerate the green and digital infrastructure development. By adopting this multifaceted approach, Global Gateway strives to transcend traditional dependency dynamics and encourage equal partnerships. At the core of the Global Gateway’s initiatives lies a strong commitment to the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement. Recognizing the pressing need for sustainable development, the strategy aims to integrate these global frameworks into every facet of its initiatives. However, there are concerns about the effectiveness of the project and the partnerships it aims to establish. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the Global Gateway and its proposed collaborations will be fit for purpose as the project is facing lingering issues that may counter its objectives.
Topic:
Climate Change, Infrastructure, Green Transition, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Europe

36. Masters of Grand Strategy

Author:
Samuel Boucké
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Grand strategy has principles that, when adhered to, will definitely benefit the state. In order to thrive, a grand strategy needs to be sustained by a strategic culture. A state’s strategic culture resides predominantly in its strategic establishment. This comprises different elites from the respective professions that bear upon the course of the state in the world, those that give shape to policy. These elites can be grouped in different factions within the strategic establishment, such as the military elite, the political elite, the administrative elite. Bad relations among these, such as bad civil-military relations, can be a sign of a fragmented and unhealthy strategic establishment. Such a strategic establishment will not generate a strategic culture that is able to sustain a grand strategy. In order to remedy, prevent, and generally improve upon this, the strategic establishment should conduct strategic simulations. Strategic simulations will instil the principles of grand strategy whilst moulding a healthy strategic establishment that will be able to generate a sustainable strategic culture.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe

37. The EU and Taiwan: Normalizing the Status Quo

Author:
Jasper Roctus
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
When I read Egmont colleague Sven Biscop’s My Summer in Beijing, I was just about to depart to a little-recognized political entity off the Chinese coast that – constitutionally, at least – still claims Beijing as part of its territory: The Republic of China (ROC/Taiwan). Unlike my colleague, I was not questioned on the academic desirability of my stay – Taiwan has over the last few decades consistently ranked in the higher echelons of academic freedom. I was, however, counselled on multiple occasions to reconsider by concerned family and friends who had seen sensational media reports claiming that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) could attack at any moment. Staying in a serene yet vibrant Taipei, visiting multiple places of interest and meeting with local scholars, I have noticed that confusion reigns not only in Europe toward Taiwan, but also in Taiwan toward Europe. Especially the cross-Strait position of the EU, which does not recognize Taiwan due to ‘its “one China” policy’ but has over the last two decades increased the scope of engagement with Taiwan, is little understood. As exchanges between Brussels and Taipei intensify, there is an increasing urgency to consolidate the EU’s position on Taiwan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Taiwan, and Asia

38. Charting a Green and Competitive Future for Europe

Author:
Lila Djait
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, with support of the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in collaboration with the Representation of the European Commission in Belgium, has organised a series of three foresight workshops and three working dinners. Each session was dedicated to a key strategic challenge, providing a vital platform for dialogue and expert insight sharing among decision-makers from EU institutions, the Belgian administration, and civil society. Far from being just a theoretical exchange, the discussions were a targeted effort to further develop strategic long-term thinking, with a vision extending over the next 5 to 10 years. The inaugural session, focused on ‘Charting a Green and Competitive Future for Europe’, addressed a pressing issue of our times. In 2023, the World Economic Forum Global Risks Report propelled climate change to the pinnacle, categorizing it as the greatest risk, and underscored its entangled nature with diverse social, economic, and political dynamics. Recognizing its critical importance, the Commission has placed this theme at the heart of several Strategic Foresight Reports. These reports, among numerous other efforts, reflect the EU’s commitment to navigating the delicate balance between ecological sustainability and citizens’ wellbeing, with economic growth in the twin transition. This theme’s relevance stems from its central role in shaping the future transformation of our society and economy, highlighting the EU’s proactive approach in addressing these interconnected challenges.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, European Union, Strategic Competition, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

39. The EU as a Soft Power Superpower: Why a Green Marshall Plan for the Sahel Is Imperative

Author:
Friso Stevens and Dortih Kool
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
This research paper argues that the European Union should roll out a European Green Marshall Plan for ecosystem restoration and local governance in the Sahel region, located between the Sahara to the north and the Sudanian savanna to the south. Ecological degradation and related climate change put mounting pressure on the region. In combination with cyclical resource-related conflicts and the presence of terrorist and insurgent groups, this has created an increasingly volatile situation. European security and stability are indirectly at stake. The EU’s ‘Old War’ footing and support for illegitimate, corrupt, and autocratic governments to ‘mow the lawn’ of terrorists and insurgents fails to address and often undermines fundamental human security needs in the region. The authors propose a remodelling of EU foreign and security policy to shift focus from current securitization efforts towards facilitating a green, bottom-up transition that empowers local communities’ ecological stewardship by using their existing knowledge, skills, and dynamics, and Farmer-Managed Natural Regeneration (FMNR). Failure to make these changes toward a human security-centred approach means the EU’s current security and climate-related policies risk further undermining rather than contributing to regional security.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

40. The Russian Soldiers’ Question Revisited

Author:
Joris Van Bladel
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The Russian authorities apply an “algorithm of lies”, the Russian armed forces have become a sealed organization, and tactical information about Russia’s war in Ukraine is fragmented and unreliable. Hence, definite conclusions concerning the Russian soldier cannot be drawn.
Topic:
Security, War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe