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21. A stubborn threat: Islamic State in Iraq in early 2022

Author:
Nancy Ezzeddine and Matteo Colombo
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In the four years since its territorial defeat, Islamic State (IS) has proved to be resilient as it continues to mount attacks across Iraq. Analysis of IS activity from September 2021 to February 2022 (six months) shows that the geography, type and targets of IS attacks remained broadly similar to the year preceding this period. The volume of IS attacks increased but this mostly took the form of small-scale and local incidents. By and large, the group seems to be stable and shows neither decline nor growth. It operates nimbly and is mostly active in the arc between Sinjar and Baghdad. Counter-terrorism (CT) operations decreased in volume over the same period but are nevertheless keeping IS in check. However, as CT operations are mostly tactical affairs that remain inadequately coordinated and low on intelligence in some aspects, they have not been able to eliminate IS capacity to mount major operations, or to remove it from entire areas. Broadly speaking, IS attacks and CT operations are in a state of equilibrium. As Iraqi CT efforts emphasise security interventions over socio-political remedies, conditions for IS survival, as well as future revival, remain relatively favourable.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

22. De-Securitising and Re-Prioritising EU-Iraq Relations

Author:
Flavio Fusco
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Located at the heart of the Middle East, connecting the Levant to the Persian Gulf, Iraq has always been at the centre of regional dynamics. Yet, the country is today reduced to a quasi-failed state fundamentally damaged in its political, social and economic fabric, with long-term consequences that trace a fil rouge from the 2003 US-led invasion to the emergence of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) and the country’s current structural fragility.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and United States of America

23. An Uncertain Future: Prospects for ISIS Detainees in Syria and Iraq

Author:
Charles Lister, Vera Mironova, Eric Oehlerich, Mick Mulroy, and Sara Kayyali
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Two years after the territorial defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, tens of thousands of fighters and associated civilians remain in various forms of detention, with little sign of any meaningful solution to their status. Until now, few Western governments have proven willing to repatriate their citizens, choosing instead to leave them in the region, where security is weak and humanitarian conditions are dire. Multilateral efforts to determine the prospects for localized judicial mechanisms have failed, leaving behind an unsustainable crisis that threatens long-term security. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a panel of experts in this timely and important discussion.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, Prisons/Penal Systems, Citizenship, Islamic State, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

24. Israel's Relations with Arab Countries: The Unfulfilled Potential

Author:
Roee Kibrik, Nimrod Goren, and Merav Kahana-Dagan
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
Israel’s Relations with Arab Countries: The Unfulfilled Potential examines relations between Israel and seven key Arab states – Egypt. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Morocco and Iraq – against the backdrop of the changes sweeping the Middle East over the past decade. The researchers mapped out the potential for cooperation with each state based on shared interests, challenges and opportunities, and on the abilities, strengths and needs of Israel and those states. The researchers described existing diplomatic, security, economic and civilian cooperation – relying on open source material, their expertise in the arena and interviews they conducted. The studies found that despite progress in cooperation between Israel and Arab countries, and notwithstanding certain growing normalization with specific Middle Eastern countries, the strategic-diplomatic, economic, social, civilian and cultural opportunities are significant and far greater than their current level. There is wide-ranging, unfulfilled potential in Israel’s relations with Arab countries, and it is more evident now than it was in the past. The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict and absence of significant progress in resolving it constitute the main obstacle to tapping the potential for cooperation between Israel and the Arab world, capping relations with a glass ceiling. In formulating its policy and actions in the region, Israel should learn the lessons of the past. It must take into consideration current realities and limitations, existing interests and processes. Just as important, it must also shape its actions, assessing and choosing from among various alternatives with a view to the future potential and tremendous promise they hold out. We hope this publication helps those interested in sketching the current complex picture and the potential that lies in relations between Israel and major Arab countries, and paves the way to expanded cooperation and normalization between Israel and its neighbors in the Middle East. As the studies in this publication indicate, the potential for regional cooperation is great and its realization also depends on progress towards Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Economy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Qatar, and UAE

25. "The New Levant": Rationales, implications and future trajectories of the cooperation between Jordan, Iraq and Egypt

Author:
Neil Quilliam, Zaid Eyadat, Harith Hasan, Abdelmonem Said Aly, Riham Bahi, Noor Alshyab, Amer Al Sabaileh, Johannes Uhl, and Adnan Tabatabai
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
In cooperation with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS), the Center for Strategic Studies (CSS) at the University of Jordan held a 2-day closed workshop, in Amman, with regional and international experts on the topic of the tripartite alliance between Jordan, Iraq and Egypt, discussing the nature and timing of the alliance, the national perspectives of each signatory state, policy areas of cooperation and implications for other regional actors. This introductory summary presents some of the ideas discussed during the workshop, but does not necessarily reflect the opinion or assessment of each participant or the hosting institutions.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Energy Policy, Regional Cooperation, Partnerships, Alliance, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Egypt, and Jordan

26. Building a Strong and Independent Iraq: Policy Guidance for the Biden Administration

Author:
Abram N. Shulsky
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Formulating US policy toward Iraq can be a fraught matter, given all the debate and disagreement concerning the actions that brought us to the current situation. However, our policy must be formulated in light of it, regardless of views about our past actions. Policy formulation should begin with the realization that Iran has gained a predominant political and military influence in Iraq. Despite efforts of past PM Adel Abdul Mahdi and current PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, many of the militias comprising the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) still answer to Iran, not the Iraqi government. Iran exerts widespread influence throughout the political class. Economically, Iraq remains dependent on Iran for energy;1 religious tourism from Iran to the holy sites in Karbala and Najaf is an important source of revenue; and Iran has flooded markets with cheap food and consumer goods. Although Iraqi oil production has rebounded, the economy remains relatively moribund and the level of basic public services is poor. (That Iraq flares off its natural gas at the same time it is importing it from Iran to produce electricity2 highlights the economic disfunction.) Popular discontent boiled over in 2019, leading to widespread protests. The protests took on an anti-Iranian aspect, and Iran-aligned PMF units attacked the protestors.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Economics, Government, Politics, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

27. Providing security in Iraq - what do Iraqis think?

Author:
Maria-Louise Clausen
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Denmark assumed leadership of NATO Mission Iraq in late 2020. The Iraqi people’s perceptions of their personal security and of those who provide it can impact the success of this mission. A recent survey provides new insights. At a time of political turmoil and insecurity in Iraq, NATO has vowed to step up its commitment in the region. This happens at a time of increased resistance to the US presence in Iraq, and a deteriorating security situation due to the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran taking place on Iraqi soil, as well as signs of an Islamic State resurgence. Security is a major concern in Iraq. When respondents were asked to select their most important concern for the Iraqi government to address, the most common choice was ‘maintaining security and stability’ (30.5%), closely followed by the job situation (27.5%), and corruption (26.2%). This should be read in conjunction with the fact that 71.7% of respondents stated that they experience their personal security as currently either only partially or not at all ensured. This was most pronounced among the surveyed Shias, with only 18.8% indicating that they feel fully or partly secure in contrast to 46.7% of Sunni respondents.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Democratization, Diplomacy, International Organization, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, Police, and Justice
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Denmark

28. Making women count, not just counting women: Creating a more effective security sector in Iraq requires increased inclusiveness

Author:
Maria-Louise Clausen and Ekatherina Zhukova
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
A priority for NATO Mission Iraq is to further the Women, Peace and Security agenda as one of the mission’s activities. This effort should focus on raising awareness of the operational benefits of equal opportunities and diversity and not just counting the number of women involved. RECOMMENDATIONS: Formulate a clear mandate for WPS functions in the mission that positions the WPS agenda as an integral element of NMI’s other activities. Support awareness-raising programmes and initiatives to transform social norms, including patriarchal gender norms and institutional socio-political constraints on female participation. Support the transparent qualifications-based recruitment and employment of women and prioritize the focus on inclusive work environments, both mentally and physically. Incorporate intersectional and masculinity perspectives in the work on WPS to avoid creating an image of WPS as a foreign-backed agenda that is only of, by and for elite women.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Diplomacy, International Organization, Non State Actors, Women, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, Police, and Justice
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

29. Multilayered Challenges: Why are foreign oil companies planning to leave Iraq?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Numerous foreign oil companies have recently announced plans to sell their shares in several major oil fields in Iraq, as part of measures that may negatively impact Iraqi oil production. There are multiple explanations for this step, including unstable security and political conditions as well as Iraq's failure to pay foreign companies their dues for operating the fields, in addition to the growing Chinese influence in the oil sector.
Topic:
Security, Oil, and Business
Political Geography:
China, Iraq, and Middle East

30. Institutionalised (In)Security: Exploring the MENA Region’s Governance Crises

Author:
Andrea Cellino and Eleanore Ardemagni
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
After a decade of popular uprisings and civil wars, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is experiencing a deep governance crisis. The transformation, weakening or even the collapse of state institutions has changed the security framework, with direct implications for processes of Security Sector Governance and Reform (SSG/R). This report, produced in collaboration between ISPI and DCAF, explores multiple governance crises in the MENA region, providing case studies on Libya, Iraq, Tunisia, and Yemen. How can we effectively bring about meaningful SSG/R in hybrid security orders? In which way is “institutionalised insecurity” challenging traditional patterns of governance in vulnerable settings?
Topic:
Security, Civil War, Governance, Crisis Management, and Uprising
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, and Tunisia