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1. The Impact of Stereotyping on International Cyber Norm‑making: Navigating Misperceptions and Building Trust

Author:
Fan Yang
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Over the past three decades, cyberspace – a digital realm shaped by both technological and social dynamics – has evolved into a domain where a wide range of human activities now take place. These activities are marked by their anonymity, which complicates attribution, and their instantaneity, which challenges timely regulation. To address these challenges, states focus on two approaches: applying existing laws and creating new ones. While there is a general consensus that cyberspace should be governed by the rule of law, including international law, the application of existing legal frameworks to cyberspace remains an evolving challenge both in terms of state practice and academic discourse. At the same time, the international community has consistently sought to develop new norms to promote good governance in cyberspace. Against this backdrop, states – especially those with advanced cyber capabilities – are engaging in a competitive game of norm-making, striving to exert influence in shaping international rules to govern cyberspace. As part of this process, states often categorise each other by trying to highlight their counterparts’ most distinct characteristics. While such labelling is common in diplomatic interactions, it is particularly problematic in the context of international cyber norm-making. Labels reflect and reinforce stereotypes, which often oversimplify the complexities of states’ behavioural patterns in cyberspace and their underlying logic. States are thus roughly grouped by opposing indicators, such as those viewing cyberspace as a global commons versus sovereign territory, those advocating for an interconnected free Internet versus a fragmented “splinternet”, or those favouring multistakeholderism versus multilateralism as the dominant approach to the governance of cyberspace. Once established, these stereotypes are difficult to dismantle and can lead to distorted perceptions that obstruct constructive dialogue. This GCSP Policy Brief aims to identify the potential security challenges posed by stereotyping in international cyber norm-making processes. It then illustrates the policy implications of this problem and offers policy recommendations.
Topic:
Security, Cybersecurity, Norms, Cyberspace, and Trust
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Proposal for a Regional Emergency Action Partnership (REAP) for Peace in the South Caucasus

Author:
Anar Ahmadov, Rusif Huseynov, Tatul Manaseryan, Arman Martirosyan, and Niko Orell
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Armenia and Azerbaijan, together with Georgia, are facing unprecedented challenges that arise from unfolding climate change and seismic risk in the South Caucasus. Placing considerable strain on economies, livelihoods, and government resources, these hazards can significantly worsen the complex geopolitical landscape and exacerbate unresolved political issues. The absence of structured and coordinated disaster response mechanisms can increase vulnerability and hamper effective crisis management, leading to avoidable loss of life, widespread suffering, and significant economic damage. We propose the establishment of a Regional Emergency Action Partnership (REAP) in the form of a coordinated binational disaster response system. This system could enable better preparation and facilitate effective responses to disasters that are likely to have an impact across borders, ultimately saving lives through joint efforts and resource mobilisation. Including Georgia would further strengthen such a crisis management system and solidify regional cooperation. Furthermore, this mechanism could help catalyse political rapprochement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Natural disasters and humanitarian crises can bring adversarial states together and unexpectedly foster collaboration. Greece and Türkiye have engaged in “earthquake diplomacy”, and despite the lack of diplomatic relations, Armenia and Türkiye briefly reopened their border to facilitate aid during the devastating 2023 Turkish earthquake (see Case Study 1 for more information). This rare example of earthquake diplomacy demonstrates how countries in seismically active regions can share common threats and opportunities for cooperation in their disaster responses. Similarly, Israel, Jordan, and Palestine have conducted joint disaster-response exercises involving 400 firefighters, medical personnel, and first responders, and the United States and Western states extended considerable support to the Soviet Union in the aftermath of the 1988 Armenian earthquake.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Natural Disasters, Partnerships, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and South Caucasus

3. Enhancing Prospects for Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan through Joint Climate Change and Energy Security Action

Author:
Anar Ahmadov, Agha Bayramov, Tatul Manaseryan, and Arman Martirosyan
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
This Policy Brief outlines practical ways in which environmental and energy cooperation between Armenia and Azerbaijan could foster regional stability and peace amid the looming impacts of climate change. Collaboration on shared resources could mitigate the negative impacts of cross-border environmental challenges while fostering mutual trust, thereby reducing the risk of future conflicts. Joint efforts to produce and transmit renewable and non-renewable energy resources could further promote regional stability by strengthening energy security and deepening economic interconnectivity. Joint action on climate change is becoming increasingly urgent in the South Caucasus, especially between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Both countries face serious economic, social, and political risks from climate impacts, including rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, desertification, extreme weather, water scarcity, and the spread of diseases. Armenia and Azerbaijan are also likely to face challenges affecting energy dependence and security, although in different ways. These challenges are likely to strain resources, heighten tensions, and increase the potential for conflict within and between these two nations. To mitigate climate change impacts, enhance energy security, and reduce the risk of conflict, cooperation is crucial, particularly as Armenia and Azerbaijan navigate a fragile post-conflict environment. The Policy Brief proposes five actionable policy options to promote environmental and energy cooperation. Their implementation would create platforms for government representatives, experts, and civil society members and organisations to jointly study, deliberate, and negotiate through technical and economic communication channels, fostering mutual understanding, confidence building, and reconciliation through shared problem solving. After discussing these policy options, the Policy Brief concludes by summarising the key take-aways from this important discussion.
Topic:
Civil Society, Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

4. A Contact Group for Ukraine?

Author:
Walter Kemp
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The high-level Ukraine peace summit hosted by Switzerland on 15 and 16 June underlined the need for finding a path to peace. But thus far, proposals made by several countries, including Ukraine, have not stopped the fighting. Since Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has implications for international peace and security, perhaps it is time to consider the formation of an international contact group to formulate a more coherent approach to de-escalating the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and nudge the parties towards peace. Since the late 1990s it has been common to form international contact groups in times of crisis. Such groups can bolster coordination among different international actors, forge common positions and exert leverage on the parties to reduce tensions. Indeed, in the past 20 or so years (since the beginning of the 21st century) there have been more than 20 such groups. Some of the more high-profile examples include contact groups on the Balkans, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, the Great Lakes region of Africa, and for dealing with piracy off the coast of Somalia. These ad hoc coalitions with nonbinding rules are designed to enhance cohesion, cooperation and coordination to improve conflict or crisis management. Considering the seriousness of the war in Ukraine and the fact that many countries have a stake in reducing tensions, it would seem necessary and urgent to form an international contact group on Ukraine.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

5. The Biological Weapons Convention: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:
Jaroslav Krasny
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Amid geopolitical challenges that have led to the weakening of international arms control and disarmament efforts, the Ninth Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) Review Conference (RevCon) provided a “glimmer of hope” for control and disarmament regimes. Delegates at the Non-Proliferation Treaty RevCon in 2022 and the Chemical Weapons Convention RevCon in 2023 were unable to reach a consensus on these conferences’ respective final documents. By contrast, the Ninth BWC RevCon held from 28 November to 16 December 2022 successfully adopted the final document. While conflicting positions on how to reflect recent allegations that some states are undertaking biological-weaponsrelated research prevented agreement on the article-by-article review, the final document included a forward-looking section that established a Working Group on the Strengthening of the BWC. This Working Group is designed to “strengthen the effectiveness and to improve the implementation of the Convention” and generate recommendations for enhancing and institutionalising it across a number of important areas, including confidence-building measures (CBMs), transparency, compliance and verification, and the national implementation of the BWC. The Working Group's sessions, therefore, provide a long-awaited opportunity to address several critical issues related to the Convention, including international cooperation and a verification mechanism. The Working Group also presents a valuable opportunity to advance work on national implementation under Article IV and interlink obligations. The recent convening of the Working Group from 4 to 8 December 2023 and the subsequent meeting of states parties from 11 to 13 December offer pertinent insights into progress made in strengthening the BWC. Ahead of the next session of the Working Group scheduled for August 2024, this Policy Brief seeks to outline some of the security challenges presented by biological weapons and lay out some of the policy implications and recommendations that flow from these challenges.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Geopolitics, and Biological Weapons
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Strengthening a Rights-Based Approach to United Nations Peace Operations

Author:
Charles T. Hunt and Adam Day
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
During a July 2020 open debate the United Nations (UN) Security Council highlighted the crucial roles human rights play in peace operations, including by providing early warning of issues or problems, supporting good offices, improving the protection of civilians, strengthening national rule-of-law capacities, ensuring due diligence/compliance for military operations, leading a range of protection-related activities and supporting efforts to protect political space in fragile settings. Despite this recognition of the important role of human rights, there has been relatively little research into how human rights support the implementation of the mandates of a range of peace operations, leaving the evidence base for understanding the contribution of human rights to peace operations very thin. The purpose of this policy brief is to chart out key complexities linked to operationalising a rights-based approach to peace operations. It identifies and introduces critical challenges to mandate implementation through specific themes, including the contribution of human rights to the protection of civilians, stabilisation mandates, smaller-footprint field offices, the political work of special envoys and mission transitions. The paper examines both theoretical and operational aspects of human rights in peace operations. In line with the High-Level Independent Panel on Peace Operations report (2015), it discusses human rights considerations in relation to a range of UN peace operations, including peacekeeping and special political missions, regional prevention offices, and special envoys. The first section locates human rights components and concerns across a spectrum of UN peace operations, comparing how human rights contribute to a wide range of peace and security engagements. The second section highlights several challenges to realising human rights aims and objectives in field missions. The final section proposes a series of questions that warrant further discussion to elucidate and support a rights-based approach to peace operations that could help to respond to the call in the New Agenda for Peace for a reflection on the limits and future of UN peacekeeping and other ongoing policymaking within the UN system. The paper illustrates that in order to support the UN’s recommitment to its core principles and human rights pillar, there is a need for greater attention to the ways that human rights can support the analysis and strategic positioning of UN peace operations.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Perspectives for the War in Ukraine

Author:
Thomas Greminger
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
There is no doubt that the military aggression against Ukraine unleashed by President Putin on 24 February 2022 represents the most significant disruption of security and peace in Europe since the end of World War II. The war has far-reaching repercussions affecting practically every aspect of our lives and impacting far beyond the European continent. In this article, I will first briefly assess the situation on the battlefield. I will then offer a few scenarios for how the conflict could evolve in the coming months. Afterward I will mainly focus on what has been called “Plan B”-thinking in the expert community: What if the official narrative of both sides – a military victory – does not materialize? What if the parties, exhausted by a war of attrition, decide to return to the negotiation table – or the high-intensity warfare transitions to low-intensity conflict leading to a de facto cessation of hostilities? What could a negotiated or a de facto ceasefire look like? And what issues would have to be negotiated if – in the most optimistic scenario – the parties decide to proceed from a ceasefire to a conflict settlement process?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8. Geopolitical Features, Common Interests and the Climate Crisis: The Case of the Arctic

Author:
Lassi Heininen
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In the 1990s an inspiring sense of a “new North” became apparent in Arcticrelated ideas and innovations that indicated the end of the Cold War period. This included arms control initiatives, cross-border cooperation and sustainability “to decrease military tension and increase political stability”, an emerging environmental awakening among peoples and societies, knowledge-building by indigenous peoples and the scientific community, and new forums for opening up discussions on regional development. The Arctic seemed to be in a state of constant transformation (geo)politically, economically, culturally and environmentally. Some of the outcomes of these processes were impressive, transforming the Arctic from a site of military tension to one reflecting geopolitical stability. When analysing this transformation and the ways in which the Arctic states reconstructed their geopolitical reality prior to 24 February 2022, the main conclusion is that this would not have been possible without key features of Arctic geopolitics, security and governance creating suitable conditions for cross-border cooperation, which correspondingly increased stability. In the same way, cooperation, mostly in terms of fields of low political interest, was made possible because the eight Arctic states shared similar interests. But now this transformation, which is also called the “Arctic model”, is threatened by a new transformation from a state of high geopolitical stability to one characterised by the uncertainties of the climate crisis and new East-West tensions, resulting in a pause in pan-Arctic cooperation during which the Arctic Council has not been able to return to business as usual. The focus of this Geneva Paper, based on the author’s previous studies and personal observations after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, is this new transformation and its influences on cooperation. The aim is to assess whether the fundamentals of the previously applicable common interests are still valued, and to what extent they could be used as the means for confidence-building in the region. Similarly, if the fundamentals of the special features of Arctic geopolitics, security and governance are in place, the question then becomes to what extent they could be interpreted as prerequisites for more widespread cooperation and geopolitical stability. Finally, if the search for stability that was the original ultimate aim of the Arctic states and Arctic indigenous peoples were still valued, would it motivate the Arctic states’ governments to more effectively align their policies when facing the climate crisis. This could be done by integrating cooperation on environmental protection, climate change mitigation, and science into their climate and foreign policies. Much is clearly at stake, for if we lose the region’s human-made peace dividend that was consciously built during the 35 years before February 2022, then the multiple crises and world disorder that are looming and threatening the entire world community would be much more difficult to resolve.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Arctic and Global Focus

9. The War in Ukraine: Reality Check for Emerging Technologies and the Future of Warfare

Author:
Jean-Marc Rickli and Federico Mantellassi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked the beginning of one of the most intense and brutal state-on-state conflicts opposing two modern militaries in recent memory. Despite Russia’s qualitative and quantitative advantages, Ukraine’s armed forces have so far put up strong resistance, foiling Russian plans of a quick victory and turning the conflict into a bloody war of attrition. Due to its scale and the nature of its belligerents, the conflict can provide us with a glimpse into what the future of warfare might look like and help us recentre the burgeoning conversation about the future of warfare in the current reality, especially as it relates to the presence and impact of emerging technologies. The war therefore offers us a way to understand how digital and off-the-shelf technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) impact conflicts of this scale and how relevant they are to current modern warfare. The war can also help us see how new actors become involved in warfare, what new means of influencing nation states are becoming available, and which new tools armed forces can use to affect battlefield outcomes. Importantly, it can help us gauge their importance relative to more traditional aspects of warfare. The analysis is structured in four main parts. This introduction is followed by a short contextualisation to situate the analysis in the wider conversation about emerging technologies and the future of warfare (Part 2). Part 3 provides a short overview of the conflict so far, dividing it into six phases. Part 4 surveys the main elements of the conflict in Ukraine, outlining what emerging technologies have been present and critically assessing their role in the war. Part 5 delves into some implications for the future of warfare that can be understood from the dynamics analysed thus far, especially as they relate to the place of emerging technologies in future conflicts and their role in determining battlefield outcomes. We argue that while some new technologies have come to characterise modern warfare, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict shows that many features of warfighting remain unchanged. Emerging technologies, such as AI and cheaper technological alternatives to traditional armaments, such as drones, are undoubtedly starting to change the battlefield and will play an increasingly larger role in future conflicts. Cyberspace and the globalised digital information space are bringing new actors and new means to exert influence, provide nations’ armed forces with new tools, and make battlefields increasingly globalised and complex. However, the conflict also shows that traditional aspects of warfare will not decrease in importance or be sidelined. Conflicts remain a contest of wills and adaptation, where ammunition supplies, the quantity of traditional armaments such as tanks, and both the number and quality of personnel and the logistical and organisational ability to bring all these elements to bear all remain the most important determinants of success. While technology is playing an increasing role in this equation, it remains unable to determine the outcome of a conflict on its own.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Drones, Artificial Intelligence, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

10. The Prospective of the Western Balkans to the EU Membership: Challenges and Possible Ways Forward

Author:
Anila Jelesijević
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The integration of the Western Balkan countries into the European Union (EU) remains a slow process. The EU’s focus on the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia has negatively affected these countries’ motivation to proceed with the reforms needed to join the EU. Their aim is to become part of the EU family, but a real commitment and productive interaction from both sides that will lead to such an integration is an essential requirement. This Geneva Paper aims to develop recommendations for what can be done to allow the Western Balkan countries to join the EU as soon as possible.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe and Western Balkans