Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The turmoil caused by President Donald Trump’s statements regarding the future of Gaza – which include the eviction of its population, American governance, the creation of a “Middle Eastern Riviera,” and an ultimatum demanding the release of all hostages – highlights two key issues on which Trump’s positions appear self-contradictory. The call for the release of all hostages (and hence perhaps an end to the war) seems at odds with the administration’s firmly held view that Hamas must no longer be the ruling power in Gaza. At the same time, the call for Palestinians to leave Gaza contradicts the traditional commitment to America’s Arab friends (and clients). The stability of the regimes in Egypt and Jordan, if pushed to take the Gazans and punished for their refusal, could be endangered – despite King Abdullah’s efforts to mollify Trump during his visit to Washington. The future of their peace treaties with Israel would also be threatened. The Saudis too have responded abruptly, reiterating their support for Palestinian demands. Consequently, the region has been thrust into a state of crisis.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, 2023 Gaza War, and Hostages
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Ankara aims to establish lasting influence through military expansion, strategic infrastructure projects, and economic agreements, including maritime treaties. Through its assertive Neo-Ottomanist policies Ankara aims become the primary architect of Syria’s future while countering rival powers like Iran and Russia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Infrastructure, Bashar al-Assad, and Regional Power
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel must take seriously Iran’s stated intention to destroy the Jewish state. Iran’s desire to attain nuclear weapons serves its goal of eliminating Israel and its strategy of using its proxies to threaten Israel’s civilian population. All measures taken so far to stop Tehran’s nuclear project have failed, and Israel has no choice but to urgently eliminate this threat by military means.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, and Proxy Groups
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Turkish opposition’s landslide victory in recent municipal elections indicate that with continued tacit Kurdish collaboration with the opposition and given the deteriorating economy and growing desire for change, the next general snap-elections may be far more challenging for President Erdoğan.
Topic:
Elections, Economy, Domestic Politics, Kurds, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and AKP
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Armenia is one of several routes used by Iran to smuggle arms to its regional proxies and clients. It also manufactures its own versions of Russian weapons that are used only by these groups and provides them with the knowledge to locally manufacture Iranian arms.
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
At the start of the Gaza War, President Biden warned Iran and its proxies against launching an all-out attack on Israel and sent aircraft carriers to the region to clarify his intentions. The withdrawal of the Gerald R. Ford carrier from the Mediterranean could be interpreted as a sign of American weakness, diminish deterrence of Iran, and undermine US mediation efforts in Lebanon.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Deterrence, Regional Security, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The collapse of the Assad regime weakens Iran and the CRINK Axis, but Islamist radicalism and rising Turkish influence demand Israel’s military vigilance and diplomatic engagement.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Islamism, Bashar al-Assad, and Regional Security
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Analysis of Google searches shows Israel has greater freedom of action than it may imagine in view of the focus on the potential regional ramifications of the conflict between Israel and Iran over the Palestinians and Gaza.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Geopolitics, Humanitarian Crisis, and 2023 Gaza War
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The terror group’s financial and operational expansion across Africa threatens Western interests and regional stability. A US-imposed ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon could leave Hezbollah’s money laundering, arms trading, drug trafficking and terrorist training.