Number of results to display per page
Search Results
2042. Economic Growth in Colombia: A Reversal of 'Fortune'?
- Author:
- Mauricio Cardenas
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Colombia’s annual GDP growth fell to an average of 3% between 1980 and 2000 from 5% between 1950 and 1980. The sources-of-growth decomposition shows that this reversal can be accounted entirely by changes in productivity. Indeed, between 1960 and 1960 productivity gains increased output per capita by 1% per year. Since 1980, productivity losses have reduced output per capita at the same rate. The time series analysis suggests that the implosion of productivity is related to the increase in criminality which has diverted capital and labor to unproductive activities. In turn, the rise in crime has been the result of rapid expansion in drug-trafficking activities, which erupted around 1980. This explanation is supported by cross-country evidence that shows that Colombia is clear outlier in terms of conflict and fragmentation, and suggests that high crime is associated with low productivity.
- Topic:
- Crime, Economic Growth, Conflict, Social Capital, and Productivity
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
2043. Communists of Moldova and the Future of the Country's Ethnopolitical Conflicts
- Author:
- Pritt Jaerve
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- The plans of the communists of Moldova to take their country to the Russia-Belarus Union and to give Russian the status of an official language, if carried out, may contribute to the resolution of existing ethnopolitical conflicts in Moldova. However, the same plans might lead Moldova towards a federation, trigger ethnic mobilisation of the titular nation and create new dimensions of ethnopolitical tension in Moldovan society.
- Topic:
- Communism, Minorities, Ethnicity, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Moldova
2044. Croat Self-Government in Bosnia - A Challenge for Dayton?
- Author:
- Florian Bieber
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- In addition to these factors contributing to the establishment of the Croat selfgovernment, economic/criminal factors most certainly played a role.22 As the response of the HDZ to the takeover of the Hercegovačka Banka seems to suggest, the economic interests of the party and its leadership were threatened by the change of government in Bosnia and the more assertive policies of the international community in Bosnia. The Croat self-government is beyond doubt a considerable challenge to the Dayton Peace Accords. The demand of the Croat leadership for a third entity can only be dismissed with difficulty in light of the existence of a Serb entity. Despite this development being a challenge to the existing arrangement, the argument can be made that some effects have been positive. The call by the HDZ for Croat soldiers to desert the Federation army and the public display of the parallel Croat power structures have given the High Representative an opportunity to render the Federation more effective by excluding those officials, who have not only now, but throughout the past five and a half year, obstructed the implementation of the Dayton Peace Accords.
- Topic:
- Governance, Minorities, Leadership, Ethnicity, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Croatia, and Bosnia and Hercegovina
2045. Armenian Minority in Georgia: Defusing Interethnic Tension
- Author:
- Natalie Sabanadze
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- July 2000 was the deadline for the withdrawal of two Russian military bases in Vaziani (near Tbilisi) and in Gudauta (Abkhazia). The agreement on Russian military withdrawal was reached at the 1999 OSCE summit in Istanbul, according to which the first two bases would be withdrawn by July 1 of the current year, to be followed by the two remaining bases in Javakheti (Southern Georgia) and Batumi (Western Georgia) in the near future. Russia did not meet the deadline on the Gudauta base, which has become the main source of renewed Georgian-Russian political confrontation over the past few days. However, as the talks on withdrawal intensified, the issue of the Javakheti base also came to the fore. Javakheti is the southernmost region of Georgia where the local population is predominantly Armenian. Similar to Abkhazia, the situation in Javakheti is very sensitive and could be exacerbated by the Russian military withdrawal which is strongly opposed by the local Armenian population. This at first sight benign case of base closure is thus likely to involve broader issues of regional political alliances, competing national interests, minority policies and a potential risk of yet another ethnopolitical confrontation in the region. Among the most common descriptions of Javakheti found in both journalistic and scholarly literature is that of a "potential zone of conflict", "area waiting to explode" and in the more radical accounts 'the second Nagorno-Karabakh'. Despite many contrary predictions, Javakheti managed to maintain peaceful interethnic relations and to survive in peace and relative stability. However, in order to maintain the fragile peace and cooperation much has to be done in terms of minority protection and power-sharing structures within Georgia. What follows is a brief discussion of the Armenian minority in Georgia in the context of ongoing regional geopolitical changes, interests and vulnerabilities of the states involved. In addition, Javakheti here is regarded as a zone of ethnopolitical tension which requires serious efforts, and well-developed preventive measures to avoid its deterioration into a zone of conflict.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Ethnicity, Conflict, and Protected People
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Georgia
2046. Conflict Prevention in the Baltic States: The OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
- Author:
- Rob Zaagman
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- The importance of national minority questions has long been recognised by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and this organisation has dealt with them extensively. Initially overshadowed by the East-West stand-off, minority issues were framed exclusively in terms of individual human rights, in particular the rights of persons belonging to national minorities. In “post-Wall” Europe, however, the explosive potential of many of them —e.g., in Yugoslavia and the Caucasus—became all too apparent. It also became clear that in this new era international violence would be mainly a consequence of domestic conflicts. Moreover, soon after the break-up of the Soviet Union the issue of the ethnic Russians outside the Russian Federation became an important factor in international relations in the OSCE area. As a result, minority issues are now mainly seen from the angle of conflict prevention, although this does include the continued pursuit of the implementation of human rights. The importance the OSCE attaches to minority issues as problems of peace and security is reflected most prominently in the office of the High Commissioner on National Minorities (HCNM) which was established in 1992 to prevent violent ethnic conflict. Equally, it finds its reflection in the mandates of most, if not all, of the long-term missions the OSCE has established over the years, of which inter-ethnic issues are the main and sometimes exclusive component. These developments fit in the increased emphasis the OSCE has been putting on conflict prevention, playing the role of an impartial, non-coercive third party. Against this background, the tense inter-ethnic relations in Estonia and Latvia were addressed early on by the OSCE. Even though no inter-ethnic violence had taken place, a number of factors made for a volatile mix in both Baltic states: firstly, the existence of domestic tensions between a large minority of mainly Russians without citizenship who had to get used to postSoviet realities and a majority determined to preserve and strengthen its own identity; and secondly, increasing international tensions because of the active interest which neighbouring Russia, mainly for geopolitical reasons, was taking in the condition of its kinfolk in Estonia and Latvia. By contrast, these factors were absent in the third Baltic state, Lithuania. As analysed in the following, the situations in Estonia and Latvia were typically cases for which the OSCE High Commissioner had been established. They demonstrate the extent to which international involvement can keep domestic conflicts tractable—by helping the parties to devise policies and positions which avoid an escalation of disputes and possibly irreconcilable differences—and thus at the same time prevent the build-up of international conflict potential. They are also showcases for the specific approach the OSCE High Commissioner has developed in dealing with tense inter-ethnic situations. Although for reasons of space the main emphasis of this paper will be on Estonia, it should be realised that many similar issues are at stake in Latvia.
- Topic:
- Security, Minorities, Conflict, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Baltic States
2047. America's New Deal with Europe: NATO Primacy and Double Expansion
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 10-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Including analysis relevant to the 2022 Ukraine crisis, this article addresses NATO expansion, burdensharing, the Balkans crisis, and relations with Russia and Germany. The American debate and public opinion regarding NATO enlargement is reviewed as well.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Conflict, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, Balkans, North America, and United States of America
2048. Air Power Promises and Modernization Trends after Operation Desert Storm
- Author:
- Kathy Bloomgarden and Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 12-1994
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- This article first appeared in 1994 in a slightly edited form in Hawk Journal, the annual publication of the Royal Air Force Staff College. The expectation of an airpower revolution began in earnest soon after victory in the first US-Iraq Gulf War, 1990-1991. Drawing extensively on official and outside expert assessment of airpower in “Operation Desert Storm,” this article critically reviews the evidence for an airpower revolution while summarizing a range of contemporary opinions on the issue. Specifically, the article examines three claims advanced by airpower enthusiasts at the dawn of the post-Cold War period: that the Gulf War experience suggests greatly expanded options for limited-aims “raiding missions,” strategic bombing campaigns, and airpower dominance over the ground battle (using improved battlefield interdiction and close air support.) Included are summaries of the extensive Gulf War Air Power Survey and other surveys of the war which provide an unsurpassed view of the war’s dynamics. It also examines the technologies, contemporary and in development, central to the putative airpower revolution.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Conflict, Gulf War, and Air Force
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America
2049. Toward Defensive Restructuring in the Middle East
- Author:
- Carl Conetta, Charles Knight, and Lutz Unterseher
- Publication Date:
- 02-1991
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Examines the character of force structure and military conflict in the Middle East and outlines a nonoffensive defense posture for nations in the region. It also draws the implications of such a posture for arms transfers and arms control policy. An appendix reviews the pertinent lessons of the 1990-91 Gulf War.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Gulf War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and United States of America