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2032. Political Insecurity and State Failure in Contemporary Africa
- Author:
- Robert H. Bates
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Noting data that suggests that Africa oversupplies state failure, the paper probes the sources of political insecurity in the continent. It explores the logic that underlies an equilibrium in which governments employ force to protect rather than to predate and in which citizens engage in productive activity and refrain from military activity. It isolates the variables that define the region in which this conduct is in equilibrium values that lie outside that region define the conditions under which states fail. The analysis illuminates the impact of political and economic forces in contemporary Africa: political reform, economic collapse, and the increased relative importance of “loot-able” resources. In an effort to evaluate the arguments of the paper, it provides as well a series of statistical tests of its arguments.
- Topic:
- Development, Political Economy, Conflict, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Africa
2033. What Was the Cold War about? Evidence from Its Ending
- Author:
- John Mueller
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- JOHN MUELLER assesses the rhetoric and actions of important international actors and concludes that the Cold War essentially ended in the spring of 1989. This suggests that the Cold War was principally about an ideological conflict and not about the military, nuclear, or economic balance or about Communism as a form of government -issues that would be resolved later.
- Topic:
- Cold War, History, Conflict, and Ideology
- Political Geography:
- Soviet Union and United States of America
2034. Moving Beyond Kosovo: Envisioning a Coherent Theory of Humanitarian Intervention
- Author:
- Matthew Perault
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- This paper uses the Kosovo bombing of 1999 as a starting point for imagining a sustainable, coherent theory of humanitarian intervention. The paper presents three principal problems of the Kosovo bombing—coherence, legality, and tactics—and describes their impact on the legitimacy of intervention and on human welfare. It then suggests three primary types of reforms that might assist in creating a more coherent logic of intervention: structural reform, coercion, and acculturation. Such reforms might assist the international community in responding more consistently and reliably to crisis situations across the globe.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
2035. Probing the Sources of Political Order
- Author:
- Robert H. Bates
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- As noted by Hobbes, political order makes possible the good things of life. It constitutes the political foundations for development. Motivated by the theory of the state and qualitative materials from Africa, this paper develops a model of the foundations of political order, which it then tests on data from 46 African countries over the period 1970-1995.
- Topic:
- Development, Political Economy, Conflict, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Africa
2036. Developing a New Euro-Atlantic Strategy for the Black Sea Region
- Author:
- Ronald D. Asmus
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- A series of historically unprecedented events have brought the attention of the West to the wider Black Sea region—that area including the littoral states of the Black Sea, Moldova, and the Southern Caucasus countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. An area that has heretofore been neglected by the Euro-Atlantic community is now starting to move from the periphery to the center of Western attention. Why has the West heretofore lacked such a strategy for the Black Sea region in the past and what has changed to make one so critical now? Four main factors explain the past lack of interest.
- Topic:
- NATO, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Black Sea
2037. Violence in Kosovo and the Way Ahead
- Author:
- Harald Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- The events of 17-19 March 2004 have shocked both the international community and local institutions: protests against the alleged killing of three ethnic Albanian children escalated into violent clashes between ethnic Albanians and Serbs, and clashes with the international peacekeeping forces in Kosovo, UN Police and the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR). The past four years seemed to be characterised by relatively positive developments in Kosovo. However, the recent troubles that left over 28 civilians and 1 KFOR soldier dead and hundreds wounded, 3,600 Serbs displaced, 30 Serbian churches and 200 Serbian houses destroyed, show that current policies on the international and local sides will have to be examined and revised and that, generally, much remains to be done in Kosovo for sustainable peace and genuine development. The fact that Kosovo Albanian leaders were as surprised by the events as the international community seems to indicate that the origins of the event are to be found below the political level and beyond the control of the political parties. In spite of their public appeals to stop the violence, the leadership failed to fully acknowledge responsibility and to deal with events appropriately, without relating the violence to issues of independence and transfer of competences. The events also indicate that the optimistic analysis of Kosovo’s current situation needs revisiting. Consequently, security policy and relations between the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) and Kosovo’s Provisional Institutions of SelfGovernment (PISG) have to be reconsidered. It is too early to tell what exactly will be the consequences of events on UNMIK and PISG policies and activities, especially regarding the standards implementation plan and, more generally, the future of the province. A careful review of the political and security situation and of the roles of the parties involved should be encouraged.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Ethnicity, Conflict, Violence, and Diversity
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Kosovo
2038. Negotiating Survival: The Problem of Commitment in U.S.-North Korean Relations
- Author:
- Steven Grunau
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- Rational accounts of the causes of conflict provide an important framework to examine the dispute between the United States and North Korea over the latter’s nuclear weapons programs. Because North Korea depends on these weapons to ensure its survival, it is unwilling to irrevocably surrender its nuclear potential—and associated bargaining leverage—in exchange for U.S. security guarantees that could be withdrawn at any time. Arguing that neither confrontation nor engagement is likely to succeed in eliminating the North Korean threat, this paper advocates a longer-term strategy of integration as having the potential to alleviate some of the tensions in the bilateral relationship. By establishing alternative sources of economic and political power while simultaneously exposing Pyongyang to the pacifying influences of international interdependence, integration policies could gradually reduce North Korea’s threat, and perhaps eventually create the necessary conditions to negotiate the elimination of its nuclear weapons and missile programs.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
2039. The Decolonization of Chechnya: Reviving the UN Trusteeship Council
- Author:
- Julie M. Tremper
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- The Russian-Chechen conflict represents an urgent problem for the international community. Domestic and regional efforts have failed to secure a satisfactory or lasting resolution to it, and terrorist activity, gross human rights violations, the proliferation of Wahhabism, and regional security concerns have led to the internationalization of the Chechen question. There are several potential statehood or non-statehood approaches to the resolution of the conflict. Given the history of hostility between Russia and Chechnya and the character of the current international environment, the best approach would be to revive the UN Trusteeship Council and give it responsibility for overseeing a transition leading to Chechen independence. This revival and application of UN trusteeship would require a redefinition of the trust system in a post-colonial context. In the case of Chechnya, the need for peace and stability should supersede the international community’s usual aversion to the creation of a new nation-state.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Conflict, Decolonization, and International Community
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, and Chechnya
2040. The Spectre of Territorial Division and the Ohrid Agreement
- Author:
- Eben Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- Should stalling win out over implementation of the Framework Agreement, support within the ethnic Albanian population for radical groups outside of politics could increase, and recent converts to the political process might be propelled back into the realm of violent action.12 If non-implementation risks provoking violence on the part of segments of the ethnic Albanian population, however, so is inexpert implementation of the Framework Agreement likely to encourage violence on the part of radical ethnic Macedonian groups anxious to capitalize on popular discontent associated not only with the terms of the Framework Agreement, but also with the country’s dire economic situation. Moreover, both of these scenarios are likely to increase support for proposals to partition Macedonia, the liabilities of which have been discussed above. Thus, given the alternatives, it is crucial that the provisions of the Framework Agreement be implemented competently and in a timely manner.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Ethnicity, Conflict, Borders, and Diversity
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Macedonia