21. Smoke and Mirrors: Israel Stronger or Weaker in 2025? Implications for Israel and its Neighbours
- Author:
- Osnat Lubrani
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- Writing this 2025 trend report on a topic I am knowledgeable about has been a Sisyphean task. Every day I woke up to realize the ‘trend’ I confidently foresaw yesterday is questioned by a new development. I submit that by the time I complete this report, it will become outdated the next day. Since its colossal security/defense failure on 7 October 2023, Israel has been able to restore its reputation as a formidable military power with substantial military support from the USA and others, notably its neighbors (Bradley A, 2024). Gaza is destroyed and Hamas is still in charge, but Israel can point to its elimination of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership, the decimation of their military capabilities, and effective striking of Iran and the Houthis as impressive wins. Yet Israel at the start of 2025 is weaker as a state and as a society. The reasons are manifold. Some trace back to before the 7th of October, while others followed from it. All of the issues—from extreme political and social divisions to a plummeting international standing (Wintour, P. 2024) to grave economic losses (Ziady, H. 2024)—have worsened since. Israel’s choices and actions in 2025, both domestically and internationally, will not only affect its long-term security and stability, but also those of its neighbors and the broader Middle East. The polarized geopolitical landscape already is facing disruptions at the start of the year; the extent of their severity will depend on how the USA foreign policy will unfold under the new administration. What is clear is that in 2025, the United States has become even more significant in determining Israel’s path and the broader region’s trajectory. President Trump’s initial statements of intent to end all wars, with focus on the Middle East and Ukraine, and to secure a lucrative deal for Israel with Saudi Arabia hint at possible scenarios. However, as he adds outlandish items to his ‘to do’ list—even some which diametrically contradict his earlier wishes—one can logically assume that not all of his plans will come to fruition. Given Trump’s mercurial nature, many “known unknowns,” as Donald Rumsfeld once put it, remain.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Civilians, Atrocities, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza