Search

Begin New Search Topic Conflict Journal Conflict Trends

1. SADC and election-related conflicts in Zimbabwe: An assessment and recommendations

Author:
Tinashe Sithole
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This article evaluates the role of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) in resolving electoral conflicts in Zimbabwe, emphasising the organisation’s constrained enforcement capacity and reliance on diplomatic strategies. The discussion delves into the SADC and African Union (AU) institutional structures and preparedness to manage such conflicts, assessing their effectiveness in promoting democratic governance standards within the region. The author contends that, despite articulating governance norms, SADC’s intervention efforts are hindered by enforcement limitations and solidarity rooted in liberation movements, necessitating a reliance on moral persuasion and diplomatic tactics. The consequence is the violation of the SADC guidelines1 and principles governing democratic elections. Since 1985, Zimbabwe has faced election-related conflicts, with an escalating trend since the 2000s. The AU and SADC, as continental brokers, often intervene belatedly, lacking coercive authority. SADC’s coercive authority involves sanctions and military intervention, contingent on Member States’ consensus and collective commitment. Despite normative frameworks, there are allegations of rigging in Zimbabwe’s elections. The crucial question is whether SADC can effectively prevent civilian deaths in the electoral process, given that in the 2018 and 2023 disputes, the Responsibility to Protect was solely entrusted to the state. The article concludes by emphasising the significance of interpreting election-related conflict violations for adequate SADC attention and intervention. The historical lack of SADC intervention in violent election incidents across SADC countries has contributed to large-scale violence in subsequent instances, exemplified by Zimbabwe’s 2018 and 2023 elections.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Elections, Conflict, and South Africa Development Community (SADC)
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

2. Resource-based conflict early-warning system in the Hammer, Nyangatom, and Dassanech community of South Omo, Ethiopia

Author:
Asmare Shetahun Alemneh
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Conflict refers to actual or perceived incompatibility of interests, goals, and actions in relationships between individuals or groups. It is a dynamic process where attitudes, behaviours, contexts and structures are constantly changing and influencing one another.1 Conflict in pastoral areas has long been linked to the need to gain control of scarce and strategic resources, particularly water and pasture. However, the key issues here are not merely scarcity, which, as highlighted above, has always been a determining feature of life in the rangelands, but also the increased inability to manage scarcity.2 In the Horn of Africa, there are common factors contributing to conflict and violence within and between pastoralists, such as inappropriate government policies, socio-economic and political marginalisation, inadequate land tenure policies, insecurity, intensified cattle rustling, proliferation of small arms and light weapons, weakened traditional governance in pastoral areas, vulnerability to climatic variability, and competition with wildlife.3 In Ethiopia, the pattern and forms of the recent violent conflicts in pastoral areas indicate that they have been involved in resource control and utilisation competition.4 Conflicts are a common phenomenon in the South Omo Zone pastoralist and agro-pastoral communities due mainly to resource competition (pasture and water-points) and negative perceptions.5 However, conflict, by its nature, is dynamic; the drivers or causes and their nature are changeable through time due to many natural and human-made phenomena. Accordingly, an in-depth investigation of natural resource-based conflict and its dynamics in the South Omo Zone in Ethiopia is the focus of this article. This article is based on a study conducted in the Dassanech, Hammer and Nyangatom Woreda collective pastoralist community, and based on empirical primary and secondary data sources. Primary data were collected through semi-structured interviews, document analysis and focus group discussion (FGD).
Topic:
Security, Environment, Conflict, Pastoralism, Peace, Competition, Early Warning, and Resources
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

3. The ruralisation of violence and the criminalisation of conflict in Nigeria

Author:
Joseph Ochogwu
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This article interrogates to what extent rural spaces are affected by criminal recruitment and the perpetuation of violent conflict and crime. It further examines the drivers of the ruralisation of violence and how it affects the nature of violent conflict in Nigeria. It identifies the impact of the ruralisation of violence and criminalisation on conflict resolution and peacebuilding efforts, as well as exploring existing security measures, law enforcement measures, and community engagement programmes to promote sustainable peace, especially in rural Nigeria. Adeleke et al.1 note that historically, rural areas, by their very nature, are known for social cohesion and rural dwellers are closely knitted such that there are shared emotions, strong family bonds, religious ties, and mutual trust, indirectly fostering effective crime control in rural areas. Ezejughu2 states that urban areas have been centres known for intense organised crime, with high levels of urban poverty, congestion, unemployment, and moral decadence contributing to violent crimes like murder, armed robbery, kidnapping, terrorism, and high rural-urban migration. This, in turn, has an impact on crime and conflict. Today, our understanding of rural communities has significantly evolved in Nigeria. They have become unsafe and contested spaces marked by limited State presence, inadequate infrastructure, and scarce resources. According to Ojo et al.,3 these conditions create fertile ground for violent conflicts and the recruitment of conflict participants. The absence of effective governance and security forces further exacerbates the situation, allowing extremist groups or criminal organisations to exploit the vacuum of state authority, thereby contributing to the cycle of instability in rural Nigeria. In 2020, Gustin and Slavic4 highlighted that rural regions, once primarily engaged in agriculture, have diversified their functions. Presently, rural areas are multifunctional and, unfortunately, have also become hotspots for criminal activities and violent conflicts in Nigeria. A typical example is the northern region of Nigeria, where there is an increased occurrence of terrorism, banditry, insurgency, and kidnapping.
Topic:
Conflict, Violence, Rural, Recruitment, and Criminalization
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

4. The nexus between horizontal inequalities and violent conflicts: A case study of Kenya

Author:
Sylvan Odidi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Horizontal inequalities are defined as inequalities in economic, social or political dimensions or cultural status between culturally defined groups. Relationships between horizontal inequalities and conflict were first discussed by Frances Stewart in the Framework of Collaborative Project Series on socio-economic causes and the impact of humanitarian emergencies and internal conflicts.1 It is instructive to note that if horizontal inequalities endure over generations, it is likely to generate resentment and, subsequently, conflicts. Therefore, the duration, nature, and potency of horizontal inequalities are vital in comprehending conflict dynamics manifesting in societies. Contemporary conflict studies posit that horizontal inequalities result in conflict situations where they intersect with significant group identities.2 In addition, in circumstances where inequalities between various groups are large, the likelihood of conflict is high.3 In this regard, Stewart observes that horizontal inequalities lie at the centre of most violent conflicts in developing nations.4 Arguably, Kenya falls under the category of countries ranked as unequal globally. The distinguishing characteristic of Kenyan society lies in its regional and ethnic disparity in wealth spread among citizens.5 The degree of horizontal inequalities in Kenya typifies the interplay of ethnicity and politics as well as polarised loyalties among key institutional players. 6Existing horizontal inequalities in Kenya have culminated in violent conflicts. These conflicts lower economic productivity, weaken the capacity of institutions to provide essential services, deplete existing resources, and lead to loss of food production as well as capital flight. Ending these conflicts remains a major challenge for relevant stakeholders. This is partly due to the failure of existing leadership structures and institutions to address development challenges, equitably share resources, and promote peaceful coexistence of all communities in Kenya. Most individuals elected and/or appointed to serve Kenyans in leadership positions have failed to entrench the principles of fairness and inclusiveness in the distribution of the country’s resources since independence. While various Kenyan administrative regimes have instituted measures to minimise conflicts, such as the establishment of peace-building and conflict management policies, conflicts of varied forms have persisted. It is against this backdrop that this study seeks to explore the nexus between horizontal inequalities and conflict in the context of Kenya.
Topic:
Governance, Inequality, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

5. The Western Sahara conflict on an evolving African security landscape

Author:
Vasileios Symeonidis
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The Western Sahara conflict has been described as a ‘frozen conflict’ and as ‘decolonisation’s last stand.’ Despite the multiple ceasefires throughout its history, the conflict has not been fully resolved. Since 1974, Western Sahara has been on the shortlist of non-self-governing territories. However, it is the only one on the list that has not condoned this status. The Polisario Front spent 50 years fighting for the independence of the Sahrawi Arab Republic from Morocco, mostly using arms and guerrilla warfare. This period of violence was followed by a ceasefire between the two stakeholders. Nonetheless, in 2020, Morocco’s response to the Sahrawi protests resulted in a resumption of fighting by the Polisario Front, essentially reopening ‘Pandora’s Box’ and showing that, despite the ceasefire, a permanent solution is urgently needed. This would need to happen within the broader African security landscape, which is currently experiencing a shift amidst the weakening of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, the growing presence of various private military companies (PMC), and the emerging role of countries such as Russia and Türkiye in African conflict situations. Considering the aforementioned changes, this article seeks to assess whether these shifts in the African security landscape will influence the situation in Western Sahara by maintaining the status quo or revitalising the efforts to resolve or exacerbate the existing tensions.
Topic:
Security, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Western Sahara

6. Understanding and managing conflicts in the arid and semi-arid areas of Kenya: the case of Samburu County

Author:
Kelvin Lekapua
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This article examines the undercurrents that shape the increasingly destructive conflicts in Samburu county, which is part of the Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) regions of Kenya. Over the last decade, the county has experienced ongoing conflict exacerbated by various factors. Samburu county is one of the 47 county governments of Kenya that lies within the ASAL region. It covers an estimated area of 21 022 square kilometres and is geographically bordered by Marsabit (Northeast), Turkana (Northwest), Isiolo (East), Laikipia (South) and Baringo (Southwest) counties.1 It is constituted of three sub-counties, namely, Samburu West, Samburu East and Samburu North, which are further subdivided into 15 wards.2 The majority of the communities therein practice nomadic pastoralism, with only a few engaging in agro-pastoralism as a means of livelihood. Over the last decade, Samburu county has continued to manifest unabated intercommunal conflicts. This is attributed to many factors, including the availability and misuse of small arms, inaccessible terrain, ungoverned spaces, struggle for scarce natural resources, intercommunal raiding, revenge and retaliatory attacks, harsh climatic conditions, and political incitements, among others. The persistent conflicts have been detrimental to the local economy and polarised intercommunal relations. Interventions to deal with the conflict, including through the deployment of security forces, have remained limited because they have largely been reactive and do not often address the root causes of the conflict, which are related to the structural conditions of underdevelopment and broken relationships. This article sets out to understand the nature, actors and issues that underpin the teetering conflicts in Samburu county. The aim is to suggest viable policy responses that may deal with the root causes of conflict and help address the local needs of the different communities in the county.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Economy, Conflict, Peace, and Livelihoods
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

7. Characteristics and efficacy of I4P in Southern Africa

Author:
Oita Etyang and Tunji Namaiko
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Compared to other regions, Southern Africa has been considered peaceful for a period of time. The relative peace experienced in the region has partly been attributed to the late decolonisation experience and the existence of strong regional institutions, such as the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), that have midwifed and quelled potential threats to peace and security. Certainly, SADC has established and operationalised peace and security organs that strategically intervene in cases of destabilisation in the region,1 including militarily in some countries. For instance, military forces under the ambit of SADC were deployed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Lesotho. More recently, forces were deployed by the region to quell the insurgency in Cabo Delgado in Mozambique.2 SADC has also intervened in member states to assuage political crises, as recently experienced in Eswatini where the SADC Troika was seized with this matter. Suffice it to mention that while the SADC intervention in Eswatini prevented the situation from escalating further, the root causes of political tensions remain salient. Despite the efforts outlined above, the emergence of conflict, violent demonstrations and riots experienced in some countries in this region, including Zimbabwe (2013, 2018), Zambia (2016), Eswatini (2021) and Madagascar (2020/2022), coupled with the evolving peace and security threats, such as armed insurgency, governance deficit, economic downturn, vagaries of climate change and the lack of economic development, have triggered an academic and policy appetite on the nature and efficacy of Infrastructure for Peace (I4P) in the region. Secondly, discussions on the subject area have predominantly focused on security apparatus, with little attention to other non-state-centric I4P. This article, therefore, interrogates the status of I4P within the Southern African region. Specifically, it unpacks their characteristics and roles in peace building, conflict prevention, conflict management, community cohesion and integration. The article goes further to highlight the challenges that I4P face in executing their respective mandates.
Topic:
Conflict, Protests, Destabilization, Peacebuilding, and Infrastructure for Peace (I4P)
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

8. Environment, Conflict and Peacebuilding: Addressing the Root Causes of Conflict in Darfur

Author:
Zurab Elzarov
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The relationship between climate change and deadly conflict is complex and context-specific, but it is undeniable that climate change is a threat multiplier that is already increasing food insecurity, water scarcity and resource competition, while disrupting livelihoods and spurring migration. In turn, deadly conflict and political instability are contributing to climate change.[2] Darfur captured international headlines in 2004 when United States (US) Secretary of State Colin Powell declared that genocide was occurring in Sudan in his testimony to the US Senate.[3] The early-2000s conflict in Darfur between rebel groups on one side and government forces and allied militias on the other caused an estimated 300 000 deaths, and about 2.5 million people live in displacement camps across Darfur.[4] Most observers agree that the immediate cause was a regional rebellion, to which Khartoum responded by recruiting Arab militias, known as the Janjaweed, to wage a campaign of ethnic cleansing against African civilians.[5] They also argue that the three core drivers of violence in Darfur at present are disputes over land and resources, the complex network of militias and paramilitary forces, and the weakness of the rule of law and security institutions.[6] Eighteen years after the eruption of the conflict in Darfur, these conclusions regarding the main causes and triggers of the conflict remain valid. In 2021, despite the signed Juba Peace Agreement, the security situation in Darfur remained volatile, with significant inter-communal violence and fighting between government forces and rebels in the Jebel Marra area. The instability in the region continues to cause large-scale displacement, with more than 200 000 people displaced in Darfur since the beginning of 2021.
Topic:
Environment, Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and Darfur

9. Natural Resource (In)justice, Conflict and Transition Challenges in Africa: Lessons from the Niger Delta

Author:
Luke Amadi
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The term ‘natural resource (in)justice’ has been used in various contexts by various scholars. Contemporary resource justice scholarship highlights several different areas of debate, including power and inequality in resource access, control, ownership, greening, eco-efficiency, feminist ecology, resource transparency, just transitions,[1] resource equity, resource rights, and fairness with regards to global inequality in North/South natural resource policies.[2] Resource injustice underlines two dynamic and interwoven contexts. First, there is the anthropogenic context, which examines the adverse effects of natural resource extraction on humans, including exclusion, degradation, inequality, and unfair treatment in natural resource allocation. Second, there is the eco-centric context, which explores the adverse effects of natural resource extraction on the ecosystem or the natural environment. The broader terrain within which natural resource justice is being pursued is rapidly changing. With the rise of natural resource justice movements, new ecological threats, the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, and lethal feedback with deleterious capitalist resource extraction in the global South, resource justice is confronted with new challenges, notably resource conflict. Since the end of the Cold War, there has been a considerable and increasing number of studies on natural resource conflict, including on questions of resource appropriation or what has become known in resource conflict debates as the ‘resource curse’, which points out the paradox of poverty among resource-rich countries.[3] Conflict and poverty are intertwined. In 2013, 471 million people lived in fragile and conflict-affected countries, while 78% of the world’s poor lived in these countries (181 million people).[4] Natural resources – land, water, forests, air – are essential to life on Earth.[5] Natural resource conflict accounts for the incompatibility of goals in natural resource use or appropriation. The rural poor in developing countries remain the most vulnerable, as they directly depend on natural resources for their food and livelihood security, while the livelihoods of 2.5 billion people depend wholly or partly on agriculture.[6] The dynamics of fair and equitable resource allocation in contexts associated with resource injustice are largely unknown. This is true especially where the resource-bearing local population is either marginalised or excluded in decision-making processes regarding natural resources.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, Transitional Justice, Conflict, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa and Niger Delta

10. Peacebuilding Policies and Frameworks in Kenya

Author:
Sylvan Odidi
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Peacebuilding is both a contested and evolving concept,with no universally accepted definition.[1] Despite being a broadly fluid term without clear guidelines or goals, most scholars agree that the fundamental task of peacebuilding is to improve human security.[2] The term first emerged through Johan Galtung’s peace work. He advocated for the establishment of a peacebuilding system to stimulate long-lasting peace by finding a solution to sources of violent conflicts and enhancing local capacities for conflict resolution and peace management.[3] A report by Boutros Boutros-Ghali entitled ‘An Agenda for Peace: Preventive Diplomacy, Peacemaking and Peace-Keeping’ refers to peacebuilding as ‘an action to identify and support structures which will tend to strengthen and solidify peace to avoid a relapse into conflict’.[4] A peacebuilding agenda is critical in the realisation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which advocate for ‘peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, access to justice for all and building effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels’.[5] In the Kenyan context, peacebuilding activities and regulatory frameworks are recognised as vital processes and instruments that are necessary for the achievement of Vision 2030, which is the country’s new development blueprint that aims to transform Kenya into a new industrialising middle-income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizen by 2030. On the one hand, the peacebuilding, conflict management, and security strategy of the political pillar of Vision 2030 underscores the need for promoting peacebuilding and reconciliation, deepening policies and legal and institutional frameworks that promote order in society, as well as institutionalising dialogue between and among communities to promote harmony among racial, ethnic and other interest groups. On the other hand, the social pillar aims at establishing ‘a just and cohesive society that enjoys equitable social development in a clean and secure environment’.[6] Nyambura Githaiga observes that from a cursory glance, Kenya is not an immediate or apparent choice for a peacebuilding case study.[7] This can be attributed to the fact that peacebuilding studies primarily focus on nations that experienced highly destructive and horrific civil wars and require international intervention. However, Kenya has suffered intermittent and localised destructive conflicts, such as the 1992, 1997, and 2007-2008 election-based violence. Therefore, Kenya offers a peacebuilding case study which is not related to civil war, but part of a tactical response to repeated incidents of local destructive conflicts.[8]
Topic:
Infrastructure, Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa