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41. Fragility, Conflict, and Violence at the World Bank—Recommendations for the Spring Meetings

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Daniel Friedman, Betty N. Wainaina, and Céline Monnier
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
The World Bank Governors meet at the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Bank (WB) Spring Meetings this week to discuss progress on the World Bank’s Evolution Roadmap. Much of this discussion will focus on financing, including commitments to the hybrid facility and the prospects for the upcoming International Development Association (IDA) replenishment. Equally important, however, is whether and how the World Bank continues to play a leading role in international support to countries affected by fragility, violence, and conflict. In this piece, the authors provide recommendations for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings 2024, considering how the World Bank Evolution Roadmap addresses conflict, fragility, and violence; and the importance for the Bank to maintain its financial allocations to prevention in the upcoming International Development Association round of financing.
Topic:
Development, World Bank, Conflict, Violence, IMF, and Fragility
Political Geography:
Global Focus

42. Contemporary Trends in Militarisation

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This report provides two new approaches to understand the capabilities of the world’s militaries by country. The first analyses and tracks changes in a range of militarisation indicators. The main finding of this approach is that while military expenditure is rising in absolute terms, as a percentage of GDP it has fallen and is around half of the peaks seen at the height of the Cold War. Concurrently, as military sophistication increases, troop numbers are declining, highlighting a growing reliance on technology. The second approach is the development of a new and original methodology that calculates the military capacity of countries by weighting the generations of their military assets. These capability scores substantially change the ranking of countries when compared to traditional approaches that count just the number of military assets, or compare military expenditure. The US has the highest capability score, well ahead of China, which ranks second. Russia follows China closely in third. Countries such as Iran and North Korea, despite having large fleets of fixed wing planes, drop considerably in the rankings, because their assets represent older technology. These trends occur as the world is at a crossroad with the number of conflicts, 59, at an all-time high since WWII. These conflicts are becoming more internationalised, with 92 countries involved in a conflict beyond their borders, rising competition between the major powers, and more middle level powers also becoming more assertive. Unresolved conflicts are at the highest levels since WWII, opening more opportunity for major conflicts to erupt.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Conflict, Militarization, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
Global Focus

43. The Changing Conceptual Landscape of the Russian War in Ukraine (2014-Present) and Syria (2011-Present)

Author:
Piotr Pietrzak
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The main goal of this paper is to present and compare the main developments in the Russian wars in Ukraine and Syria by considering the main patterns, parallels, and changing trajectories that could shed more light onto both of these war zones, which are highly interlinked due to Russia’s leading role in both. It analytically, comparatively, and contemplatively approaches those developments by highlighting multiple similarities and the main differences in global responses to these conflicts. Both conflicts should be seen as highly unpredictable, dynamic, and unnecessarily extended asymmetric proxy wars in which global powers test their new military doctrines and their competitors' responses to their unconventional actions and other unsolicited and indirect interferences in the local dynamism of both wars. Unlike in Syria, the Ukrainian war zone is wholly transformative and ready for the adoption of partial hybridization and the utilization of the new software-defined warfare in combination with conventional weapons.
Topic:
International Relations, Conflict, Syrian War, Russia-Ukraine War, and Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Syria

44. Leveraging Livelihood Diversification for Peacebuilding in Climate- and Conflict-affected Contexts

Author:
Farah Hegazi and Katongo Seyuba
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Livelihoods are central to the relationship between climate change and conflict. Despite the recognition that climate change related livelihood deterioration is associated with conflict, livelihood interventions are not prominent as a peacebuilding tool and most livelihood diversification is done autonomously. Supporting women’s livelihoods is also overlooked as a peacebuilding tool, with the focus primarily being on addressing the consequences of sexual violence after conflict. This SIPRI Policy Brief offers insights into how building and diversifying livelihoods can contribute to peacebuilding in climate- and conflict-affected contexts. The policy brief recommends: (a) supporting viable and sustainable livelihood diversification interventions to effectively address livelihood insecurity and associated conflict risks, and (b) increasing support for women’s livelihoods to promote women’s empowerment as a peacebuilding tool.
Topic:
Climate Change, Women, Conflict, Economic Development, Livelihoods, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

45. From Conflict to Collaboration: Co-funding Environmental Peacebuilding in South-central Somalia

Author:
Kheira Tarif
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Somalia is experiencing significant impacts of climate change. Its climate-related vulnerabilities are exacerbated by the enduring effects of more than three decades of violent conflict and fragmented governance. As the effects of climate change become more pronounced, their interaction with social, economic and political realities threatens to create challenges that are complex and difficult to address. There is a need for policies and programmes that tackle climate change and conflict in tandem, but gaps persist in knowledge and evidence to inform actions under such policies and programmes. This SIPRI Policy Brief explores how the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Somalia uses a co-funding mechanism for facilitating collaboration between groups in conflict on addressing shared local priorities. In south-central Somalia, IOM has applied the co-funding mechanism to projects that aim to address local climate-related vulnerabilities, build relationships between communities in conflict and strengthen the role of district councils. This policy brief finds that elements of this approach to project design can support environmental peacebuilding in contexts exposed to climate change and affected by conflict and offers recommendations for organizations and other donors with relevant mandates.
Topic:
Environment, Conflict, Peacebuilding, and International Organization for Migration (IOM)
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

46. Unveiling Challenges and Gaps in Climate Finance in Conflict Areas

Author:
Karen Meijer and Abeer S. Ahmad
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
This SIPRI Insights addresses challenges related to climate finance distribution in conflict-affected countries, where vulnerabilities to climate change are significantly exacerbated. Conflict reduces the ability of populations to adapt, making effective climate finance even more critical. Despite increasing global climate finance commitments, conflict-affected countries consistently receive disproportionately low amounts of per capita climate adaptation official development assistance (ODA) compared to non-conflict-affected countries with similar income levels and climate vulnerabilities. The paper’s analysis, covering both bilateral and multilateral ODA flows between 2015 and 2021, highlights significant disparities in per capita climate adaptation funding. For example, small island developing states receive over US$100 per capita annually, while many conflict-affected countries receive less than $1. Methodological challenges such as those related to ‘regional’ or ‘unspecified’ funds and limited data transparency prevent accurate assessments. The paper highlights the need for improved transparency, equitable redistribution of funds and stronger donor–recipient coordination to ensure climate finance reaches the most vulnerable populations, especially in conflict settings.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Climate Finance, Conflict, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Global Focus

47. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq's Strategic Role in ISIS Operations—A Crossroads of Conflict

Author:
Frzand Sherko
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Effective counter-narratives are required to weaken the group's ideological appeal, especially the propaganda targeting Kurdish populations. Since the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019, ISIS has undergone significant changes in its strategy and operations, especially in critical Iraqi provinces like Kirkuk, Salahuddin, Diyala, and Nineveh, which have historically been hotspots for insurgent activities and are now playing a pivotal role in the reorganization and operations of ISIS in Iraq. Iraq’s “disputed territories”–areas claimed by both the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)–have long been a haven for terrorist organizations. Terrorist leaders Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Abu Omar al-Baghdadi operated and were eventually killed in hideouts adjacent to disputed areas, and other figures like Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Abu Ibrahim al-Quraishi, and Abu Hassan al-Quraishi took advantage of the shaky security situation to conduct operations in this locations. However, extremist groups do not thrive in these contested areas out of convenience alone; the provinces of Kirkuk, Salahuddin, Diyala, and Nineveh all hold significant strategic, economic, and geographic importance. Due to its vast oil resources, Kirkuk has been an enticing target, while Salahuddin’s proximity to Baghdad gives it immense historical and strategic significance. Diyala’s shared border with Iran makes it valuable as a launch point for cross-border attacks. Nineveh remains a significant symbolic and operational center even after the loss of territorial control by ISIS, as the province is home to Mosul, the once de facto capital of the ISIS caliphate. The diverse ethnic makeup of each of these provinces has likewise been of interest to ISIS as it has looked to exploit potential cleavages. In addition to military operations, ISIS conducts psychological warfare aimed at destabilizing state authority and creating fear among the population. The ongoing instability in these regions, compounded by political disputes and poor governance, furthers the efficacy of these efforts. However, activity in Erbil and Sulimaniyah is also increasingly visible to Kurdish security and counterterrorism forces.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Islamic State, Conflict, Ideology, and Narrative
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

48. Lebanon's Social Protection System Suffers Amidst the Current War: Urgent Action Needed!

Author:
Cynthia Saghir, Farah Al Shami, and Diana Tonea
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
This policy paper assesses Lebanon’s social protection response to the ongoing war and provides recommendations for policymakers to further develop this response and later improve the shock-responsiveness and -resilience of the country’s social protection system. The war in Lebanon has exacerbated the existing economic crisis, leading to mass displacement and increased poverty. The social protection system, already fragmented and underfunded, is struggling to meet the humanitarian needs of the affected population. The emergency response has been inadequate and limited to cash transfers and in-kind donations reaching only a small portion of those in need. Lebanon’s social protection system primarily relies on poverty-targeted social safety nets, which offer limited coverage and are heavily dependent on international funding. These safety nets have been expanded in response to the war but their reach remains relatively narrow. This implies an urgent need for a more comprehensive and coordinated approach to address the crisis – an approach that involves immediate humanitarian assistance as well as longer-term social protection measures that strengthen the system’s shock-responsiveness and -resilience. Linkages between the humanitarian and social assistance systems are also crucial for an integrated and sustainable approach. The paper concludes that for Lebanon's social protection system to become more fit for purpose, universal social security schemes should be prioritized, followed by a plan that tackles the issue of being composed of a complex web of different programs and registries. The government must therefore take decisive action to secure additional funding through domestic resources, improve coordination among stakeholders, and expand the reach of social assistance programs so that vulnerable populations receive the support they need to cope with the current crisis, and have their wellbeing and livelihood constantly protected.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Conflict, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

49. Social Inclusion and Justice for the Internally Displaced by the Herdsmen-Farmers Conflict in Benue State, Nigeria

Author:
Rita Iorbo, Sanjeev P. Sahni, and Dick Taverishma Andzenge
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
Herdsmen-farmers conflict has displaced 1.5 million residents of Benue State, Nigeria, according to government officials. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) have lost livelihoods, farms, personal property and community infrastructure. The paper highlights the social challenges they have experienced and the response by government and international humanitarian agencies (IHAs) to their situations. Based on interviews with 12 IDPs belonging to the displaced population from Guma Local Government Area of Benue State and interviews with seven humanitarian workers, the paper finds that the IDPs: • Have lost family members, neighbors, farms, churches, health centers, and means of mobility. • Cannot safely return home or access their ancestral lands. • Cannot support themselves. • Cannot attend public school or progress to a university. • Lack access to quality health care. • Live with multiple families in insecure shelters. • Cannot reliably obtain birth registration and replace other destroyed documents. • Can register their names, family relations, and former villages, but not their losses, which might lead to compensation and help them to rebuild their lives. The paper makes the following recommendations. • Registration, Effective Remedies and Access to Justice: The Benue State Emergency Management Agency (BSEMA), Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs (FMHA) and United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) should document personal and community socio-economic losses to ascertain the extent of damage to IDPs in order to facilitate effective remedies. The Ministries of Justice, the National Human Rights Commission, and UNHCR should support the IDPs by providing them with information and procedures that allow them to secure full compensation for their losses, and with safe, permanent solutions to their situations, including full integration into their host communities, safe and voluntary return home, or resettlement in a third community. • Engage IDPs as Stakeholders: The Benue State Government should ensure that BSEMA communicates to IDPs the possibilities for voluntary and dignified safe return. If return is not immediately foreseeable, BSEMA should offer IDPs the means to relocate and resettle elsewhere. • Provision of Sustainable Social Amenities: BSEMA, the FMHA, and international humanitarian agencies (IHAs) should provide sustainable healthcare, shelter, education in IDP camps, financial assistance and the means to access services outside of IDP camps. • Peace through Establishment of Ranches: Benue State Government’s Peace Commission should resolve the herdsmen-farmer conflict and restore peace by promoting peaceful co-existence between the conflicting parties. Herdsmen should be educated on the procedures for legal land acquisition for ranching, and farmers should be able to seek legal redress when their farms are damaged by grazing cattle. BSEMA and the Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs should also facilitate voluntary, safe and dignified return of IDPs or their resettlement in another community. • Safeguard IDP Camps: BSEMA and the Nigeria security agencies should safeguard official and unofficial IDP camps. • Inclusive Policy Implementation: The FMHA in collaboration with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) should develop humanitarian response plans that are beneficial to all IDPs in Nigeria irrespective of the cause of their displacement.
Topic:
Conflict, Pastoralism, Internal Displacement, Farming, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

50. What’s next in the Israel-Iran conflict?

Author:
Eran Etzion, Mick Mulroy, and Alex Vatanka
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The Middle East Institute hosted an on-the-record briefing on what's next in the Israel-Iran conflict. Speakers Eran Etzion Non-Resident Scholar, Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, Middle East Institute Mick Mulroy Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Defense & Security Program, Middle East Institute Alex Vatanka Iran Program Director, Middle East Institute
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel