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21. SADC and election-related conflicts in Zimbabwe: An assessment and recommendations

Author:
Tinashe Sithole
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This article evaluates the role of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) in resolving electoral conflicts in Zimbabwe, emphasising the organisation’s constrained enforcement capacity and reliance on diplomatic strategies. The discussion delves into the SADC and African Union (AU) institutional structures and preparedness to manage such conflicts, assessing their effectiveness in promoting democratic governance standards within the region. The author contends that, despite articulating governance norms, SADC’s intervention efforts are hindered by enforcement limitations and solidarity rooted in liberation movements, necessitating a reliance on moral persuasion and diplomatic tactics. The consequence is the violation of the SADC guidelines1 and principles governing democratic elections. Since 1985, Zimbabwe has faced election-related conflicts, with an escalating trend since the 2000s. The AU and SADC, as continental brokers, often intervene belatedly, lacking coercive authority. SADC’s coercive authority involves sanctions and military intervention, contingent on Member States’ consensus and collective commitment. Despite normative frameworks, there are allegations of rigging in Zimbabwe’s elections. The crucial question is whether SADC can effectively prevent civilian deaths in the electoral process, given that in the 2018 and 2023 disputes, the Responsibility to Protect was solely entrusted to the state. The article concludes by emphasising the significance of interpreting election-related conflict violations for adequate SADC attention and intervention. The historical lack of SADC intervention in violent election incidents across SADC countries has contributed to large-scale violence in subsequent instances, exemplified by Zimbabwe’s 2018 and 2023 elections.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Elections, Conflict, and South Africa Development Community (SADC)
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

22. Resource-based conflict early-warning system in the Hammer, Nyangatom, and Dassanech community of South Omo, Ethiopia

Author:
Asmare Shetahun Alemneh
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Conflict refers to actual or perceived incompatibility of interests, goals, and actions in relationships between individuals or groups. It is a dynamic process where attitudes, behaviours, contexts and structures are constantly changing and influencing one another.1 Conflict in pastoral areas has long been linked to the need to gain control of scarce and strategic resources, particularly water and pasture. However, the key issues here are not merely scarcity, which, as highlighted above, has always been a determining feature of life in the rangelands, but also the increased inability to manage scarcity.2 In the Horn of Africa, there are common factors contributing to conflict and violence within and between pastoralists, such as inappropriate government policies, socio-economic and political marginalisation, inadequate land tenure policies, insecurity, intensified cattle rustling, proliferation of small arms and light weapons, weakened traditional governance in pastoral areas, vulnerability to climatic variability, and competition with wildlife.3 In Ethiopia, the pattern and forms of the recent violent conflicts in pastoral areas indicate that they have been involved in resource control and utilisation competition.4 Conflicts are a common phenomenon in the South Omo Zone pastoralist and agro-pastoral communities due mainly to resource competition (pasture and water-points) and negative perceptions.5 However, conflict, by its nature, is dynamic; the drivers or causes and their nature are changeable through time due to many natural and human-made phenomena. Accordingly, an in-depth investigation of natural resource-based conflict and its dynamics in the South Omo Zone in Ethiopia is the focus of this article. This article is based on a study conducted in the Dassanech, Hammer and Nyangatom Woreda collective pastoralist community, and based on empirical primary and secondary data sources. Primary data were collected through semi-structured interviews, document analysis and focus group discussion (FGD).
Topic:
Security, Environment, Conflict, Pastoralism, Peace, Competition, Early Warning, and Resources
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

23. The ruralisation of violence and the criminalisation of conflict in Nigeria

Author:
Joseph Ochogwu
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This article interrogates to what extent rural spaces are affected by criminal recruitment and the perpetuation of violent conflict and crime. It further examines the drivers of the ruralisation of violence and how it affects the nature of violent conflict in Nigeria. It identifies the impact of the ruralisation of violence and criminalisation on conflict resolution and peacebuilding efforts, as well as exploring existing security measures, law enforcement measures, and community engagement programmes to promote sustainable peace, especially in rural Nigeria. Adeleke et al.1 note that historically, rural areas, by their very nature, are known for social cohesion and rural dwellers are closely knitted such that there are shared emotions, strong family bonds, religious ties, and mutual trust, indirectly fostering effective crime control in rural areas. Ezejughu2 states that urban areas have been centres known for intense organised crime, with high levels of urban poverty, congestion, unemployment, and moral decadence contributing to violent crimes like murder, armed robbery, kidnapping, terrorism, and high rural-urban migration. This, in turn, has an impact on crime and conflict. Today, our understanding of rural communities has significantly evolved in Nigeria. They have become unsafe and contested spaces marked by limited State presence, inadequate infrastructure, and scarce resources. According to Ojo et al.,3 these conditions create fertile ground for violent conflicts and the recruitment of conflict participants. The absence of effective governance and security forces further exacerbates the situation, allowing extremist groups or criminal organisations to exploit the vacuum of state authority, thereby contributing to the cycle of instability in rural Nigeria. In 2020, Gustin and Slavic4 highlighted that rural regions, once primarily engaged in agriculture, have diversified their functions. Presently, rural areas are multifunctional and, unfortunately, have also become hotspots for criminal activities and violent conflicts in Nigeria. A typical example is the northern region of Nigeria, where there is an increased occurrence of terrorism, banditry, insurgency, and kidnapping.
Topic:
Conflict, Violence, Rural, Recruitment, and Criminalization
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

24. The nexus between horizontal inequalities and violent conflicts: A case study of Kenya

Author:
Sylvan Odidi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Horizontal inequalities are defined as inequalities in economic, social or political dimensions or cultural status between culturally defined groups. Relationships between horizontal inequalities and conflict were first discussed by Frances Stewart in the Framework of Collaborative Project Series on socio-economic causes and the impact of humanitarian emergencies and internal conflicts.1 It is instructive to note that if horizontal inequalities endure over generations, it is likely to generate resentment and, subsequently, conflicts. Therefore, the duration, nature, and potency of horizontal inequalities are vital in comprehending conflict dynamics manifesting in societies. Contemporary conflict studies posit that horizontal inequalities result in conflict situations where they intersect with significant group identities.2 In addition, in circumstances where inequalities between various groups are large, the likelihood of conflict is high.3 In this regard, Stewart observes that horizontal inequalities lie at the centre of most violent conflicts in developing nations.4 Arguably, Kenya falls under the category of countries ranked as unequal globally. The distinguishing characteristic of Kenyan society lies in its regional and ethnic disparity in wealth spread among citizens.5 The degree of horizontal inequalities in Kenya typifies the interplay of ethnicity and politics as well as polarised loyalties among key institutional players. 6Existing horizontal inequalities in Kenya have culminated in violent conflicts. These conflicts lower economic productivity, weaken the capacity of institutions to provide essential services, deplete existing resources, and lead to loss of food production as well as capital flight. Ending these conflicts remains a major challenge for relevant stakeholders. This is partly due to the failure of existing leadership structures and institutions to address development challenges, equitably share resources, and promote peaceful coexistence of all communities in Kenya. Most individuals elected and/or appointed to serve Kenyans in leadership positions have failed to entrench the principles of fairness and inclusiveness in the distribution of the country’s resources since independence. While various Kenyan administrative regimes have instituted measures to minimise conflicts, such as the establishment of peace-building and conflict management policies, conflicts of varied forms have persisted. It is against this backdrop that this study seeks to explore the nexus between horizontal inequalities and conflict in the context of Kenya.
Topic:
Governance, Inequality, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

25. The Western Sahara conflict on an evolving African security landscape

Author:
Vasileios Symeonidis
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The Western Sahara conflict has been described as a ‘frozen conflict’ and as ‘decolonisation’s last stand.’ Despite the multiple ceasefires throughout its history, the conflict has not been fully resolved. Since 1974, Western Sahara has been on the shortlist of non-self-governing territories. However, it is the only one on the list that has not condoned this status. The Polisario Front spent 50 years fighting for the independence of the Sahrawi Arab Republic from Morocco, mostly using arms and guerrilla warfare. This period of violence was followed by a ceasefire between the two stakeholders. Nonetheless, in 2020, Morocco’s response to the Sahrawi protests resulted in a resumption of fighting by the Polisario Front, essentially reopening ‘Pandora’s Box’ and showing that, despite the ceasefire, a permanent solution is urgently needed. This would need to happen within the broader African security landscape, which is currently experiencing a shift amidst the weakening of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, the growing presence of various private military companies (PMC), and the emerging role of countries such as Russia and Türkiye in African conflict situations. Considering the aforementioned changes, this article seeks to assess whether these shifts in the African security landscape will influence the situation in Western Sahara by maintaining the status quo or revitalising the efforts to resolve or exacerbate the existing tensions.
Topic:
Security, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Western Sahara

26. The Gaza War – Affective Polarization and the Future of Democracy

Author:
Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The terrible terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent War in Gaza have not only affected the Middle East, but they have also had a disruptive impact on Western democracies. Divisions between those who support Israel’s fight against Islamist terrorism and those who the foreground the sufferings of Palestinian civilians have overlapped with deep affective polarization in many societies. The two positions seem to be irreconcilable and leave little to no room for empathy and dialogue. This report highlights a growing overlap between the perception of international conflicts and domestic polarization over identity issues and values.
Topic:
Democracy, Conflict, Polarization, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

27. The New Geopolitical Formation in the Wider Horn of Africa: Consequences for Europe

Author:
Jan Pospisil
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The ongoing conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia significantly destabilise the Wider Horn of Africa and impact the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. These conflicts, rooted in fragmented statehood and exacerbated by internal ethnic, regional, and political divisions, threaten regional stability through increased migration and disruptions in the Red Sea. The conflicts are deeply internationalised, involving military engagements from neighbouring countries and attracting global powers due to significant geostrategic stakes. Traditional Western influences are waning. Instead, new actors like China, Russia, and various Gulf States are heavily engaged in the region. For Europe, the instability in the Horn of Africa presents urgent challenges, primarily related to migration, the security of maritime routes, and potential spillover effects in neighbouring regions like Egypt. Addressing these issues requires enhanced political engagement, addressing humanitarian needs, reforming peacekeeping efforts, and strengthening security cooperation. Europe’s response should be robust and coordinated, aiming to mitigate immediate threats and contribute to long-term stability in the region, reflecting the complexity of the intertwined interests and ongoing conflicts.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Political stability, Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Horn of Africa

28. The war in Ukraine poses unprecedented threats to aid workers

Author:
Jethro Norman
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
An interstate war in Europe presents new security challenges for humanitarians. Along the 960km Ukraine-Russia frontline, humanitarian infrastructure has been hit by shelling, missiles and drone strikes, and aid delivery disrupted by electronic warfare. Supporting specialised training and removing outdated bureaucratic burdens are some of the ways in which donors and policymakers can help humanitarian organisations adapt to this new context.
Topic:
Security, Humanitarian Aid, Conflict, Peace, Russia-Ukraine War, and Aid Workers
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

29. Bridging the gap in climate change financing to violent conflict affected areas

Author:
Justine Chambers and Helene Maria Kyed
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Countries affected by violent conflict are among the most vulnerable to climate change yet receive an extremely low share of global climate financing. This is despite the fact that most UN member states now recognise the interlinkages between climate change and violent conflict. The UN’s New Agenda for Peace also highlights ‘climate, peace and security’ as a crucial policy area. Upgrading climate change support to vulnerable populations in violent conflict-affected areas necessitates substantial changes to global climate financing. This is supported by the COP28 declaration on “Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace”, signed by 91 UN member states, including Denmark, which also calls for enhanced conflict-sensitivity and more funds for local organisations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Resources, Non State Actors, Conflict, Instability, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30. Diaspora aid is crucial for emergency relief in the Somali regions

Author:
Nauja Kleist, Peter Albrecht, Mohamed Aden Hassan, and Karuti Kanyinga
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Somali diaspora humanitarianism alleviates suffering and saves lives in the Somali regions that are affected by conflict, poverty and natural disasters. Its absence would exacerbate crises and significantly limit the impact of formal assistance.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, Natural Disasters, Diaspora, Fragile States, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia