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3161. Preparing for Realignment

Author:
Akhil Ramesh
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
In 2021, when President Biden took office, the US-India relationship was riding on the positive momentum created by successive US presidents since President George W Bush. Over the four years of the Biden administration, with few positive developments and several other tensions, the partnership was stress-tested across domains. For watchers of the US-India bilateral partnership, the Biden administration’s denouement vis-a-vis the partnership with India was disappointing and underwhelming. While several key supply chain diversification initiatives materialized, issues surrounding India’s position toward Russia—in the aftermath of the latter’s invasion of Ukraine—its alleged involvement in the killing of a Khalistan separatist and lastly Washington’s position on the interim government in Bangladesh highlighted the divergences between the two democracies. For the US-India partnership, President Biden’s term in office could be described as one that alienated an already allyship/treaty-averse India, pushing it further into groupings such as BRICS and other emerging non-Western multilateral institutions. The last eight months were no different. Nonetheless, domestic political developments in both India and the US could potentially set the stage for a recourse in the spiraling US-India bilateral partnership.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

3162. Political Changes May Roil Security Dynamics

Author:
Catharin Dalpino
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
In the second half of 2024, Southeast Asia faced growing headwinds that challenged its longstanding principles of neutrality in external conflict and, above all, “ASEAN Centrality” in regional affairs. Maritime competition between the Philippines and China around the Second Thomas and Sabina Shoals intensified, causing Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., to warn Beijing that there would be serious repercussions if Chinese naval vessels crossed a “red line” in the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Overtures from Moscow to several Southeast Asian nations for increased security cooperation presented two worrisome complications: a more pro-active Russian military role and the implications of the strengthening China-Russia alliance on the region’s security. A threat internal to the region, the civil war in Myanmar, developed new complications when China stepped up its diplomatic and security presence in the country to protect its economic interests. In Indonesia, however, an internal threat may be abating as the Jemmah Islamiyah publicly agreed to dissolve. During these challenges, political shifts could color Southeast Asian responses to security threats. Political transition in Vietnam and Indonesia ushered in new leaders whose geo-political alignments are not yet clear. Thailand underwent a peaceful shift of prime ministers, but the process demonstrated that the country could remain internally focused for the near-term. The political transition in Japan raised questions of whether Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru would continue Tokyo’s growing security relations with its Southeast Asia partners. Throughout the summer and into the fall, US presidential politics loomed over the region. The election in November of Donald Trump raised concerns in Southeast Asia over Washington’s future relations with its security partners; the impact on Southeast Asia of a stiffer US posture toward China; and blanket tariffs, which could erode bilateral relations and impede cooperation in security and other key policy areas.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Maritime, Strategic Competition, ASEAN, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Philippines, and Southeast Asia

3163. The Worst Angels of Our Nature

Author:
Mason Richey and Rob York
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The last several reporting periods of Comparative Connections have featured little drama in US relations with the two Koreas. A lot of important changes happened—a burgeoning Washington-Seoul-Tokyo trilateral, Pyongyang’s advancing nuclear weapons program, etc.—but these developments were mostly incremental. However, the June-December 2024 reporting period—the final Comparative Connections—has featured bombshells, both metaphorically and literally. The most spectacular event was South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol going full rogue authoritarian and recklessly declaring martial law at 11pm on December 3 in order to carry out a military “self-coup d’état.” That is, Yoon annulled democratic processes and civil constitutional protections, arrogated all political and executive power to himself and the military, and attempted to suspend the national assembly. This shocking step toward tyranny—considered long-relegated to the distant past of South Korea’s developmental dictatorships of the 1950s-1980s—was as badly conceived as it was executed, farcically falling apart after less than three hours, when legislators (mostly from the opposition) breached the cordon of deployed soldiers around the national assembly, entered the plenary chamber, and voted 190-0 to revoke the martial law decree.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Domestic Politics, Coup, Donald Trump, and Trilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

3164. Trump’s Return Scrambles Outlook

Author:
Sourabh Gupta
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
US-China relations through 2024 remained marked by a paradox. On the one hand, ties displayed a distinct stabilization. The two sides translated their leaders’ modest “San Francisco Vision” into reality. Cabinet officials and the numerous working groups met in earnest and produced outcomes, functional cooperation was deepened though differences emerged, sensitive issues were carefully managed, and effort was devoted to improving the relationship’s political optics. US electoral politics, or threat of Chinese interference in the elections, did not materially impinge on ties. On the other hand, the negative tendencies in US-China relations deepened. With its time in office winding down, the Biden administration went into regulatory overdrive to deepen the “selective decoupling” of the two countries’ advanced technology ecosystems. China methodically responded in kind using its now-robust economic lawfare toolkit. The chasm in strategic perceptions remained just as wide. Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office portends a period of disruptive unpredictability in ties, although “Tariff Man” Trump can reliably be expected to enact additional impositions on Chinese imports. Two years to the day that they met on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia to place a floor under their troubled relationship and initiate a process of emplacing guardrails, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping met for their third in-person meeting as presidents in Lima, Peru, on the sidelines of the APEC Economic Leaders Meeting. In Lima, the two presidents took stock of the gradual rehabilitation of ties over the past two years, despite its early interruption by the balloon incident, and pledged to consolidate the fragile stability and make the relationship more predictable. They also patted themselves for harvesting some of the low-hanging fruit since their summit in Woodside, California, 12 months ago. US-China relations have made important incremental progress over the past 18 months, starting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing in June 2023 (Blinken returned to Beijing again this April). In Spring 2023, aside from meetings of their senior-most officials, there was practically no active communication channel between the two sides. Fast forward to today and there are more than 20 dialogue frameworks that span the range from diplomacy, security, economy, trade, fiscal affairs, finance and military to counternarcotics, law enforcement, agriculture, climate change, and people-to-people exchanges.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Deterrence, Donald Trump, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3165. Once Again, Leadership Transitions Challenge US-Japan Alliance

Author:
Sheila A. Smith and Charles McClean
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
2024 closes with new governments primed to lead in the US and Japan. A surprise decision by Prime Minister Kishida Fumio to step away from leadership of his party in August led to an unprecedented race to succeed him. Nine members of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) fought for the chance to become president of the LDP on Sept. 27, and in a surprisingly tight race, Shigeru Ishiba won the honor and thus became the 102nd prime minister of Japan on Oct. 1. Within days, Ishiba called a Lower House election for Oct. 27. The LDP lost dramatically, and in the Nov. 11 vote in the Diet, Ishiba’s LDP and its partner Komeito formed a minority coalition government. The US similarly was in the throes of political contest. On Nov. 5, Donald Trump won a decisive victory in the presidential election, and in the days that followed, the Republicans were declared winners in both the House and the Senate as well. While Trump’s inauguration will not be until January 2025, his transition team began immediately to announce candidates for his Cabinet and for the many political appointments needed to fill out his new administration. There was little doubt that this would be a far more robust challenge to the status quo than Trump marshaled during his first term. The US-Japan alliance continues to be a fundamental feature of US strategy in the Indo-Pacific. The bilateral agenda for strategic coordination has grown considerably, and significant changes in Japanese defense preparedness are underway. US forces, too, are adapting to the needs of the growing military imbalance in the region. Trilateral US-Japan-South Korea security ties have deepened, and a new trilateral with the Philippines seems promising. Across the region and globally, the US and Japan have joined in broader coalitions of strategic cooperation. And yet, there is concern that this burgeoning agenda of strategic cooperation could flounder as domestic priorities take center stage in both Washington and Tokyo.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Elections, Leadership, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3166. Regional Overview: The Year of Elections (Finally) Ends

Author:
Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The “year of elections” culminated in the allegedly (but not actually) “too close to call” US presidential elections on Nov. 5, which resulted in Donald Trump’s scheduled return to the oval office on Jan. 20, 2025. Trump has wasted no time identifying his preferences for key leadership positions in his incoming administration, some surprising, some shocking, and a few somewhat disturbing (to us, at least), although most of his national security/foreign policy choices appear more mainstream. While we would not be bold (or foolish) enough to make firm predictions regarding future policy, we will speculate on expected trends and characteristics, while acknowledging at the onset that Trump prides himself on being unpredictable (and has largely succeeded in this quest). While elections elsewhere have gone largely as expected, two unexpected domestic political developments promise to impact US policy and regional stability; namely, the failed attempt by Republic of Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol to declare martial law which resulted in his impeachment, and the political turmoil in Japan that has left the Liberal Democratic Party for the first time in decades finding itself at the helm of a minority government. Elsewhere (and largely overlooked), the usual spate of multilateral meetings took place in the second half of the year—the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Meeting, the G20 gathering, the East Asia Summit and companion ministerial-level ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the BRICS Summit, etc. —amid enhanced military activity and enhanced trilateral/minilateral cooperation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3167. Enhancing Data Sharing Practices Between Government Agencies

Author:
Sone Osakwe
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
In today's fast-paced world, access to accurate and timely data is crucial for effective governance and decision-making. Policymakers often struggle to access the data they need to make informed decisions and serve the public effectively. The problem lies not in the lack of available data but in its inaccessibility. Unfortunately, many government ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs) in African countries face challenges when it comes to sharing and integrating data. This lack of data interoperability hampers collaboration, slows down processes, and prevents the delivery of efficient public services.
Topic:
Governance, Data, Public Service, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Africa

3168. Debt for Climate and Development Swaps in Nigeria

Author:
Mma Amara Ekeruchera, Chris Heitzig, Oreoluwa Adenuga, Oludele Folarin, and Kashema Bahago
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
Africa’s largest economy has found itself in an increasingly vulnerable financial position due to several shocks in the past decade. It relied on private creditors to compensate for revenue shortfalls in 2016 and 2017 after the collapse of commodity prices. The COVID-19 pandemic induced more borrowing, this time from multilateral sources. These events have led to the highest external debt levels in Nigeria since 2004. Increased debt levels clogged financing for key SDG outcomes relating to social welfare sectors more broadly and gender equality and the environment in particular. This paper explored the need for, viability of, and impacts of debt swaps in Nigeria. It focused on two sources of debt that are mostly likely to be involved in a debt swap: Paris Club ODA debt and underperforming private sector debt. These two sources together comprise a sum of more than $3.7 billion whose exchange could free up resources to fund development priorities for facilitators of the debt swap. If the entirety of the eligible debt were to be swapped, it would create an average of nearly $300 million of budgetary resources (per year) for the next six years. Beyond funding development projects, remaining funds could decrease the debt burden, provided they do not beget additional borrowing. The paper also traced the experiences of five countries participating in debt-for-nature swaps.
Topic:
Climate Change, Debt, Development, Economy, Sustainable Development Goals, Commodities, and Revenue
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

3169. The Accelerating Tragedy of Syria’s Displaced: Failed Commitments, Forced Returns, and the Normalization of International Crimes

Author:
Bridges of Truth
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
The over 50-year-long authoritarian rule of the Assad family and the 14 years of conflict in Syria were characterized by repression, widespread human rights atrocities, and a culture of impunity. Few if any Syrians have not been brutalized in some way. The Syrian refugee crisis, now in its second decade, and the legacy of atrocities committed over decades stands as one of the most enduring and complex humanitarian challenges of our time. This report delves into the ethical, legal, and practical challenges surrounding the repatriation of Syrian refugees and discusses the broader justice needs of those returning and those who remained inside Syria. It argues that any repatriation process must be informed, dignified, safe, and voluntary, strictly adhering to international norms that safeguard the rights of refugees. It also scrutinizes what “safety” and “security” mean for Syrians and what durable peace requires. The analysis extends to key regional contexts, including Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, and the European Union, to highlight the diverse challenges and risks faced by Syrian refugees. In these regions, refugees encounter various forms of pressure, ranging from economic hardship and restrictive legal environments to forced returns, that are misrepresented as voluntary repatriations. The report advocates for a rights-based approach, one that prioritizes the safety, dignity, and well-being of displaced Syrians and the many other victims of the conflict and authoritarian rule. It calls for a comprehensive political solution, particularly the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2254, and emphasizes the need to address the root causes of the Syrian conflict and to establish a framework for accountability and justice for victims. It identifies steps for addressing violations in connection with forced return and forced displacement; for shedding light on the legacy of violations and harms that Syrians have experienced in Syrian and as refugees; for supporting existing and long-term accountability processes; and for advancing legal, constitutional, and institutional reform.
Topic:
Reform, Refugees, Transitional Justice, Criminal Justice, Syrian War, Memory, Institutions, Peace Process, and Forced Displacement
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

3170. 'Some Level of Peace': Addressing Intercommunal Violence Through Customary Justice in South Sudan

Author:
Agatha Ndonga
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
This report examines the role of customary justice plays in addressing massive human rights violations in South Sudan. Customary justice has long been the primary way in which most communities in the country resolve disputes, given its accessibility as well as the inadequate capacity of state judicial institutions. Its limitations, however, include issues of security, gender discrimination, and politicization. Customary justice was not intended to deal with the more extreme elements of intercommunal conflict, but in practice it often does, including by incorporating elements of accountability, compensation, and acknowledgment. Customary justice can play a role in resolving disputes and repairing relationships in South Sudan in the context of intense violence and serious violations. In such contexts, however, customary justice faces additional or more intensified challenges than it does in ordinary circumstances, including challenges related to the power imbalance between traditional authorities and armed youth, militarization of violence and the role of security sector actors, and the limited capacity of customary justice actors to enforce decisions. Overall, there is a level of complexity to the violence and a lack of clarity on customary justice’s proper role that limits its value. The report suggests that the transitional justice framework set up by the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan provides opportunities to develop a hybrid approach that uses both formal and customary justice; takes into account the complexity of the violence; and offers clarity, support, and guidance for both government and customary justice actors. This potential is especially clear with regard to the Commission for Truth, Reconciliation and Healing (CTRH), which is tasked with supervising customary justice processes in facilitating truth, reconciliation, healing, and reparation. The report concludes with recommendations for the CTRH and other stakeholders to address these challenges, take advantage of opportunities, and adapt customary justice in a victim-centered manner in the context of complex intercommunal violence.
Topic:
Criminal Justice, Justice, Reparations, Gender, Youth Engagement, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan