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231. Inequality kills: on Russian combat ineff ectiveness in Ukraine and beyond

Author:
Pilster Ulrich and Olesya Vinhas de Souza
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
What would Russia’s military strategy be in a war with NATO? Before 2022, many analysts worried about the scenario in which Russia, leveraging a tactically profi cient and well-coordinated combined arms force, could swiftly overrun the Baltics in a matter of days. Drawing on a statistical analysis of historical battles and an examination of Russian force structure and equipment losses in Ukraine, we challenge this view. Endemic inequality within the Russian Armed Forces will continue to impede their adoption of the sophisticated tactics necessary for manoeuvre warfare. Therefore, we anticipate that a future potential Russian attack would resemble a war of attrition. Unable to quickly out-manoeuvre NATO forces, Moscow would aim to deploy overwhelming fi repower and manpower against Allied troops and civilian populations, with an aim to infl ict widespread and sustained destruction.
Topic:
NATO, Military Strategy, Inequality, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

232. Economic Cooperation: A Driver of Stability in the MENA Region?

Author:
Valeria Talbot
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces a complex landscape where economic cooperation is increasingly linked to regional stability. For decades, economic factors have influenced the foreign policy of MENA countries. However, since 2020, shared economic challenges – exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, oil market fluctuations and the global repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – have spurred initiatives for rapprochement. The October 7 attacks and subsequent Gaza and Lebanon conflicts pose a threat to such progresses. Can economic partnerships serve as a basis for lasting peace in MENA region? What forms of collaboration could enhance stability in the face of persistent security challenges? What are the primary constraints and challenges that limit the potential of economic cooperation as a stabilizing force in the MENA region?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economic Cooperation, COVID-19, Armed Conflict, Abraham Accords, Russia-Ukraine War, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North Africa, and Gulf Nations

233. Financing European air defence through European Union debt

Author:
Armin Steinbach and Guntram B. Wolff
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Europe is vulnerable to air attacks by both state and non-state actors. Russia has substantially increased its production of hypersonic missiles, missiles and drones, while European air defence capacities remain patchy with little improvement in coverage in recent years. Air defence is a classic European public good. No individual nation alone can provide it comprehensively, while air defence provided individual European Union countries can offer significant benefits to Europe as a whole. Joint EU funding for the build-up of greater air defence capabilities would be thus justified and help ensure rapid and sufficient provisioning. Debt funding would be economically justified as air defence systems, such as Patriot and IRIS-T, involve large upfront costs – debt would allow the cost of the investment to be smoothed over longer periods. Issuing EU debt, similarly to what was done with the NextGenerationEU post-pandemic recovery instrument, would be justified given the level of the air-attack threat. EU debt funding of air defence system is legally possible. Debt funding for air defence would respect the EU’s limited competence in defence and such a scheme would maintain the exceptional character of debt funding, with EU countries responding to a security threat in an act of solidarity. Joint debt issuance would not imply changing the command structure of air defence as foreseen under NATO and the European Sky Shield Initiative, but it would impact procurement processes. Procurement could be organised in the framework of the EU’s existing Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) system. Additional EU debt would benefit the development of European industrial capacities in air defence, even if in the short term some funds were used to buy systems from the United States. Significant funds for research and the development of the domestic industrial base should be part of the initiative.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Debt, European Union, Finance, Macroeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

234. A European defence industrial strategy in a hostile world

Author:
Juan Mejino-López and Guntram B. Wolff
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine has brought war back to Europe. Failing to stop Russia’s aggression would leave Europe at a critical disadvantage for decades, with a long-term threat to peace in the European Union. The EU can no longer rely on United States leadership in NATO and European countries therefore need to rapidly build-up their military capabilities. European countries have increased the amounts spent on defence considerably in recent years but the underinvestment of previous decades means that gaps still exist. While the EU as a whole fulfils the 2% NATO target, 7 EU NATO countries still fall short of reaching it. The European defence market remains fragmented. The lack of joint procurement and national preferences for defence spending translate into small markets with low production numbers. We provide evidence of the cost of no EU single market for selected defence products: Low production numbers are a major reason for relatively high costs per unit of production. European countries should work with the incoming EU defence commissioner to develop a cost-effective rearmament strategy. Countries pursuing goals individually would be ineffective. While EU defence industrial policy is constrained by institutional, political and practical problems, there are significant opportunities. A more integrated market for defence products would lead to greater economies of scale, resulting in lower prices and more defence readiness. Europe should aim at greater market integration for defence rather than at protecting smaller national markets. Addressing the current security concerns will require both EU and national large funding, easily €500 billion in the next five years, for which budget prioritisation as well as European and national debt will be needed. The European defence strategy should account for comparative advantages and disadvantages, which means that purchases of weapons from outside the EU are warranted and rational, especially when the security of supply and interoperability are guaranteed. Yet local purchases, i.e. some European preference, to boost industrial capabilities and innovation are critical to reinforce strategic autonomy and avoid falling behind on military technology.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Defense Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

235. UK trade 2024

Author:
Jonathan Portes, Sarah Hall, and Stephen Hunsaker
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK trade has, since the 2016 referendum, become a hotly debated subject. Which is not to say that it is simply a Brexit story; the uncertainties currently shaping UK trade are far from unique to the UK. Supply chain disruption associated with international conflicts, and a geo-political environment that is generally less conducive to trade, are impacting trade globally. In the immediate years following Brexit, trade data was complicated by the Covid-19 pandemic and a significant rise in global energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 2023 data released by the Office for National Statistics provides one of the first opportunities to assess the UK’s post-Brexit trade performance in detail. This report uses these data to set out the key recent trends in UK trade, outline where uncertainties lie and what the policy implications are.
Topic:
Brexit, Trade, COVID-19, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

236. The Minsk Protocols: Flawed by Design

Author:
Sindija Beta, Katie Hetherington, and Paul R. Williams
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
The election of Donald Trump as the next President of the United States has reignited discussions about a potential peace agreement in Ukraine. Advisors close to the President-elect have floated the idea of revisiting the Minsk Protocols of 2014 and 2015—agreements initially crafted to address Russian aggression in Ukraine but fraught with significant design flaws. At first glance, revisiting the Minsk Protocols might seem like a logical starting point. However, their design was fundamentally flawed, with three critical weaknesses undermining their effectiveness. First, Russia acted in bad faith by asserting that it was not a party to the armed conflict, despite maintaining a military presence on Ukrainian territory. This claim allowed Russia to avoid any obligations under the protocols, undermining their credibility and enforceability. Second, the “special status” provision in the Minsk Protocols created a pathway for eroding Ukrainian political unity. It fostered governance fragmentation and institutionalized a permanent Russian influence over Ukraine’s internal affairs. Third, the sequencing of the Minsk Protocols required Ukraine to hold elections in Donetsk and Luhansk before regaining control over its territory. This made it impossible to ensure that the elections would be free, fair, and transparent. This blog will explore these design flaws in greater detail and explain why reviving the Minsk Protocols in future peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia is unlikely to result in a durable peace.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Regional Politics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Minsk Protocols
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and United States of America

237. Persistent Gaps in Protection: Stateless and Forcibly Displaced in Ukraine and Abroad

Author:
Clara Van Thillo
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, beginning in February 2022, millions of Ukrainians have fled their homes. Among the forcibly displaced are stateless persons who lived in Ukraine prior to the war, who are particularly vulnerable because they do not possess any nationality. Unable to prove their identity, stateless internally displaced persons and refugees experience numerous challenges along their flight routes. The measures adopted by European countries to support Ukrainian refugees have been successful in many ways, but insufficiently consider the situation of stateless persons. This article explores the protection gaps in the laws of Ukraine and neighbouring countries, as well as at the European level, and critically evaluates those gaps in light of the relevant international protection regimes, ie, international statelessness law, international refugee law, international and European human rights law and international humanitarian law. From the analysis, it can be concluded that possession of identity documentation and legal status remain crucial conditions for crossing borders and accessing protection.
Topic:
Refugees, Internal Displacement, Migrants, Russia-Ukraine War, Forced Displacement, and Statelessness
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

238. Power moves east: Poland’s rise as a strategic European player

Author:
Izabela Surwillo and Veronika Slakaityte
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Since Russia’s war in Ukraine, Europe’s geopolitical centre has shifted eastward. Poland’s economic growth, regional leadership and defence role have cemented its position as a major force in the continent’s power structure.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Leadership, Economic Growth, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Poland

239. Bridging North-South disarmament divides

Author:
Maria-Louise Clausen and Trine Rosengren Pejstrup
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This brief focuses on selected policy areas where the Global South is seeking increased influence on the disarmament agenda and where Denmark might play a role in bridging the divide between North and South. The UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned of a looming fracture in the global governance system as relationships between great powers are being recalibrated, and regional blocs are more forcefully asserting distinct visions for peace and security. The Russian war on Ukraine has highlighted the volatility of the global security environment, reflecting both a break from and a continuation of deteriorating conditions for the multilateral framework in disarmament and arms control. These mechanisms are crucial for international peace and security. But the Ukraine conflict, coupled with increased global military spending and the emergence of new military technologies, is increasingly challenging the credibility of the UN peace and security architecture.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Disarmament, Multilateralism, UN Security Council, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

240. Moscow and Beijing at the Dawn of A Grave New World of Trump 2.0

Author:
Yu Bin
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The election of Donald Trump as the 47th US president changed the chemistry between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing so much and yet so little. It was so much because the war-ending rhetoric of the president-elect was in sharp contrast to his predecessor’s steadfast support of Ukraine. It was so little because the war in Ukraine not only continued but even escalated after Trump’s decisive electoral win in early November as the Biden administration rushed arms to Ukraine with much relaxed restrictions (on ATACMS, etc.). Meanwhile, Beijing-Moscow relations continued to broaden and deepen throughout 2024 despite Trump’s repeated vows to split the Russia-China entente. Xi and Putin met three times in six months (May, July, and October). Their joint enterprises (SCO, BRICS, etc.) also expanded steadily while experiencing growing pains. Meanwhile, the two large powers considerably stepped up their mil-mil interactions with more exercises, exchanges, and joint patrols. It remains to be seen how Trump would operationalize his campaign rhetorics not just to capture a pivotal position within the Moscow-Beijing-Washington triangle, but more importantly, to avert the Kissingerian dark prophecy of a grave new world of WMD and AI racing toward World War III.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Elections, Donald Trump, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia