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391. Mind the Output Gap: The New Technocratic Politics of EU Fiscal Rules in Italy

Author:
Camilla Locatelli
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The sovereign debt crisis triggered a process of reforms in European economic governance that pushed for technocratic handling of budget decisions following standardized procedures, target measures, and indicators for fiscal monitoring. This shift, aimed at producing more stability and less conflict in budget decision-making, transformed fiscal policy, producing a new type of technocratic fiscal politics. These new technocratic instruments impact on national policymaking, yet little is known about the processes and actors behind their constitution. Scholarship on the policy response to the euro area crisis has highlighted the role of national interests but neglected the role of expertise in negotiating highly technical fiscal policies. A key measure in this new technical apparatus, the output gap, has been at the center of a heated contestation between Italian and European institutions over the 2014–2019 period. Taking the case of the Italian output gap, this paper traces the unfolding of the dispute around the methodology for estimating potential output and clearly reveals the new centrality of expertise. The paper argues that rather than producing a less conflictual policy environment and a de-politicizing of fiscal decisions, technocratic fiscal politics has reshaped discussions around budgetary politics. This reshaping extends and transforms actor constellations and venues of fiscal decisions, giving a larger role to technocratic experts.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, European Union, Fiscal Policy, and Technocracy
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

392. Preparing for a rainy day: What can EU member states learn from Finland’s approach to resilience?

Author:
Tiina Kähkönen and Robin Forsberg
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The EU faces growing threats from geopolitical tensions, pandemics, hybrid warfare, and climate change. These challenges require resilience that extends beyond military readiness to include robust civilian preparedness. In the 21st century, the need for rapid responses to complex threats has increased, demanding civilian sector involvement to ensure national security. Finland’s Comprehensive Security Model provides a valuable framework for crafting a unified EU resilience strategy.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Resilience, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:
Europe

393. Hate Crime and Extremism in Austria on the Background of the Middle Eastern Conflict

Author:
Daniela Pisoiu
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Drawing on the research insights of the EU funded research project PARTES[1], this policy brief outlines the sharp rise in hate crimes in Austria following the outbreak of the conflict in Gaza in response to the Hamas terrorist attack of October 7, 2023. The paper outlines the modus operandi behind these hate crimes and furthermore highlights the nature of the narratives and motivations accompanying them. Austrian Jewish communities are particularly affected by these incidents, as increasing anti-Israel sentiments often translate into acts of antisemitism. At the same time, anti-Muslim narratives and increasing anti-Muslim racism have led to intensified hostilities against Muslim communities. The paper proposes several policy recommendations, including enhanced surveillance, efforts to counter radicalisation, interfaith dialogue, and awareness raising campaigns. These measures aim to address the risks posed by violent extremism and ensure the safety of its religious communities.
Topic:
European Union, Surveillance, Islamophobia, Hate Crimes, 2023 Gaza War, and Antisemitism
Political Geography:
Europe, Israel, Gaza, and Austria

394. How the West loses public opinion in Europe’s Neighborhood

Author:
Vedran Džihić and Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
For many, the fall of the Iron Curtain marked the final victory of democracy and Western liberalism over autocracy and communism. Over the past decade, however, the liberal world order has been challenged by emerging, mostly authoritarian, international actors. The rise of these autocratic regimes has coincided with a decline in Western influence in Europe’s neighborhood, including the Western Balkans, Turkey, and the MENA region. Once a dominant force, the West’s normative influence is now waning, counterbalanced by countries such as Russia and China, as well as regional powers such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, which are increasingly exerting influence through cultural, economic, and military engagement. This Policy Analysis examines the evolving public perception of the West in the Western Balkans, Turkey, and the MENA region, identifying the myths, narratives, and political rhetoric that shape local attitudes and increasingly complicate Europe’s relations with its neighbors. Public opinion in these regions about the United States and Europe varies, of course, from country to country. But one trend is clear: the West’s normative power is a shadow of its former self. Only 35% of Serbian citizens viewed EU membership favorably in 2022, with many favoring alliances with Russia. Meanwhile, in Turkey, only 14.3% of the public thinks of the United States as a friend, marking a sharp decline from previous decades. In the MENA region, a 2022 poll found that 64% of Egyptians preferred China over the United States, and recent surveys reveal a substantial rise in anti-American sentiment across the region amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Notably, the EU generally maintains a relatively more positive image compared to the US. After all, the EU remains a major trading partner across the region. Over the last few years, however, the EU’s reputation in the Arab world has been increasingly damaged by its migration policy and its support for Israel, both of which are often seen as emblematic of Western double standards. Many in these regions increasingly favor diversified partnerships, including with actors such as China and Russia. Although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine initially boosted support for the EU, rising anti-Americanism and dissatisfaction with Western positions in the Middle East conflict reflect enduring divisions. As a result, the West’s ability to promote democracy and a rule-based order is severely constrained. Reversing this negative trend in public perception requires a long-lasting endeavor and should be a key priority for policymakers in both Brussels and Washington, D.C.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, European Union, Influence, and Anti-Americanism
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Western Balkans

395. A Taiwan crisis is a China crisis

Author:
Luke Patey
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The European Union needs a China contingency. Government and corporate decision-makers may be preparing for a possible Chinese military attack on Taiwan, but they must also focus on how a Taiwan crisis will impact China and, consequently, the EU’s economic security. Largely on account of Taiwan’s prominent position in the global semiconductor industry, a Chinese attack on the island will inflict trillions of dollars in costs on the global economy. But a Taiwan crisis also threatens to disrupt China-centered production and supply chains for green technologies, such as electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines, as well as create unprecedented geopolitical risk for European companies in China.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Taiwan, and Asia

396. Protecting EU's critical infrastructure - The fight intensifies in the cyber realm

Author:
Veronika Slakaityte and Izabela Surwillo
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The geopolitical tensions in Europe have amplified hybrid warfare, with state and non-state actors increasingly targeting critical infrastructure (CI) through military and non-military tactics. Cyberattacks typically target the digital systems of CI, while hybrid warfare also includes tactics like disinformation and electronic jamming, indirectly undermining trust and disrupting operations. The EU’s fragmented approach to CI protection is marked by a lack of coherent national and cross-border cybersecurity strategies. There is no clear classification system for its CI sectors, a lack of standardisation in its threat responses, and no comprehensive inventory of critical assents—all of which leave Europe vulnerable to cyberattacks. As digitalisation and interconnectedness of CI grows, so does the risk of cascading disruptions across borders. Cybersecurity is therefore a crucial pillar of modern defence: without addressing its vulnerabilities, the stability of Europe’s overall security framework is at risk.
Topic:
European Union, Cybersecurity, Hybrid Warfare, Digitalization, and Critical Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Europe

397. Niger coup forces a rethink of EU and US security strategies

Author:
Andrew Lebovich
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
For a decade the European Union (EU) and the United States saw Niger as their most valuable and cooperative partner in the Sahel, but the military coup that struck Niger in 2023 changed that. As European states rethink their options in the Sahel, an understanding of what went wrong in Niger can shed light on how to rethink security assistance in the Sahel and in coastal West Africa. ‘Last man standing, last chance’ is how a European diplomat described Niger’s regional status less than two weeks before the coup that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum on 26 July 2023. The French departure from Mali in late 2022 and Burkina Faso in 2023, along with increasing pressure on United Nations forces and the European civilian and security training missions EU Training Mission (EUTM) and EU Capacity Assistance Programme (EUCAP) in Mali, left Niger as the last stronghold for the EU and international community to maintain regional counterterrorism operations and influence with a willing partner. This shift raised concerns that the relatively better security situation in Niger, compared to its central Sahelian neighbours, was at risk should Niger falter in its security stance and commitments and, since the coup, many of the worst fears of European and American actors have come true. Attacks have increased, with some of them disturbingly close to Niger’s capital Niamey. The Conseil National pour la Sauvegarde de la Patrie (CNSP), the military junta which assumed control after the coup, swiftly cut ties with the country’s prior security partnerships, opting for a different direction that includes Russian trainers, equipment and possibly other security assistance, although there is no evidence that Russia had a hand in the coup itself. Thus far this presence is significantly smaller than in Mali, where Russian-financed mercenaries operate in significant numbers. Most strikingly, French soldiers were ordered to leave the country within weeks of the coup. Following an unsuccessful meeting between a high-level American delegation and Nigérien junta leaders in March 2024, American forces were also pushed out, with their withdrawal to be completed by September 2024.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, European Union, and Coup
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Sahel, and Niger

398. Whaling politics: two worlds that never meet

Author:
Minori Takahashi
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The arrest and detention of environmental activist Paul Watson in Greenland drew renewed attention to Japan’s whaling, specifically the commercial whaling that resumed in July 2019. Japan stopped commercial whaling of large whales in the Antarctic in 1986-87 and coastal whaling by March 1988, following decisions in the International Whaling Commission (IWC). With the stated aim of gaining sufficient knowledge to re-start commercial whaling, Japan conducted research whaling for ecological and resource data, as IWC regulations permit member states to do. In 2010, Watson’s group physically interfered with a ship contributing to Japan’s Whale Research Program near Antarctica, leading Japan to issue a red notice against him through Interpol. 14 years later, in response to Japan’s request, Danish authorities in Greenland, constitutionally linked to Denmark but with extensive autonomy, detained Watson during a refuelling stop. The arrest prompted protests in Europe and an online petition with over 720,000 signatures for his release. Joining the cause are renowned actors, acclaimed filmmakers and even parliamentarians and city mayors. Watson’s legal team claimed the incident was political and that Japan was exploiting Greenland. Faced with intense opposition from otherwise friendly nations, why does Japan continue to engage in whaling?
Topic:
Environment, Politics, European Union, Conservation, and Whaling
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, and Asia