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31. NATO Summits: Looking ahead from Washington to The Hague

Author:
Dick Zandee and Roman de Baedts
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The July 2024 NATO Summit in Washington DC confirmed that the Alliance is ‘back to the future’. Upon its 75th anniversary NATO took important decisions to further strengthen its political-military power in response to a variety of security challenges, in particular to the threat posed by Russia. Increased defence spending is starting to deliver results in improving the military capabilities of European Allies. NATO’s partnerships with the EU and with countries in the Pacific have been reinforced. Yet, dark clouds are hanging above the Alliance on its way from Washington to its next Summit in The Hague (June 2025). First and foremost, the US presidential elections on 5 November cast a shadow over the transatlantic cooperation, or even worse, may result in a category 5 hurricane for NATO if Donald Trump re-enters the White House. American military support for Ukraine could stop completely, increasing the pressure on European Allies to do more, or to end their ‘whatever it takes’ rhetoric. To ensure the US contribution to NATO, European Allies will need to step up their defence efforts, even under Democratic President Kamala Harris. The American focus on the Indo-Pacific/China is raising questions about the European role and contribution to the Alliance as well as to the Asia-Pacific region. This policy brief will address these major issues for the Alliance on the road from Washington to The Hague.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

32. Stabilization Policies After the Sahel Coups

Author:
Florence Schimmel and Armin Schäfer
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The Sahel is increasingly ruled by authoritarian military regimes; co-­operation with them towards goals such as stability and peace is becoming more and more difficult for Germany. Following the recent coups in Mali and Niger in particular, the question now is whether and how the previous stabilization policies can be continued. For around ten years, Germany, together with the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States, has been pursuing stabilization policies that focus on strengthening fragile governments. In the future, Germany must more clearly define which partners are considered legitimate and which fundamental principles should apply, notwithstanding the high degree of context-specificity.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Coup, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, Germany, Sahel, and United States of America

33. Indian Ocean Security Means More Will Be Asked of US Allies

Author:
Benjamin Reilly and Peter Dean
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Ongoing disruptions in the Gulf of Aden and the vulnerability of other key Indian Ocean bottlenecks in the Straits of Hormuz or Malacca... [H]ighlight an inconvenient truth: the country with the most to lose from a disruption of the Indian Ocean today is China...
Topic:
Security, Maritime Commerce, and Economy
Political Geography:
China, India, Australia, West Asia, United States of America, and Indian Ocean

34. Growing Foreign and Security Policy Challenges Face India’s Re-elected Modi Government

Author:
Frank O'Donnell
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Frank O'Donnell, Adjunct Fellow with the East-West Center in Washington and Nonresident Fellow in the Stimson Center South Asia Program, asserts that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces growing challenges in his third term, including Chinese hostilities in the Himalayas, pursuing more peaceful relations with Pakistan, and navigating turbulence in US-India affairs.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Elections, and Narendra Modi
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and United States of America

35. Japan, the Philippines, and the United States: A New Era of Partnership through Trilateral Defense and Security Cooperation

Author:
Miyoko Taniguchi
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Miyoko Taniguchi, Professor of International Relations and Peace Studies at Miyazaki Municipal University in Japan, explains that the “strengthening of trilateral cooperation [between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines is a significant strategic move to institutionalize the deterrence and response capabilities of US allies and partners, especially to protect the territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea and East China Sea.”
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Sovereignty, Partnerships, Deterrence, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

36. Strategic Realignments: Assessing the Impact of Taiwan's 2024 Elections on US-China Relations and Indo-Pacific Stability

Author:
Yih-Jye Hwang
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Yih-Jye Hwang, an Assistant Professor of International Relations at Leiden University, details the transformation of US Asia-Pacific policy from strategic ambiguity to a more explicit stance, the Democratic Progressive Party’s Pro-US Stance, and the 'doubt America' theory prevalent among Taiwanese opposition parties.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Elections, Economy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

37. Election 2024 in Pakistan - A Catalyst for Strengthening Global Health Security Partnerships

Author:
Saeed Ahmad
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Saeed Ahmad, a Public Health Coordinator with Pakistan’s Ministry of National Health Services, "explores the impact of Pakistan’s 2024 electoral outcomes on health policy formulation, resource allocation, and continued partnership and engagement with the United States on global health security and sustainable development."
Topic:
Security, Development, Elections, Partnerships, and Public Health
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and United States of America

38. Understated and Sometimes Contentious: A Perspective on the US-Australia Alliance in Southeast Asia

Author:
Ja Ian Chong
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Ja Ian Chong, Associate Professor of Political Science at National University of Singapore, explains that "[the] Australian-United States alliance is probably one of the most under-appreciated and misunderstood security partnerships in Southeast Asia," and it "helps undergird the status quo in Southeast Asia."
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Alliance, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Australia, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

39. Strategic Partners or Fickle Friends? Indonesia’s Perceptions of the US-Australia Defense and Security Relationship

Author:
Lina Alexandra and Pieter Pandie
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Lina A. Alexndra and Mr. Pieter Pandie, Head of the International Relations Department and Researcher at Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta, respectfully, explain that "while [Indonesia] certainly considers Australia and the United States as key partners in navigating the region's security landscape... Indonesia has desired a more independent Australia, given its proximity"
Topic:
Security, Regional Security, Perception, Defense Cooperation, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Australia, Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

40. Stabilizing the Growing Taiwan Crisis: New Messaging and Understandings are Urgently Needed

Author:
Michael D. Swaine
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
The U.S.–China relationship appears to have stabilized since the November 2023 meeting between U.S. president Joe Biden and China’s president Xi Jinping in San Francisco. The reality, however, is that the features and trends pushing both countries toward a confrontation over Taiwan persist, fueling a dangerous, interactive dynamic that could quickly overcome any diplomatic thaw between the world’s foremost powers. These underlying forces — increased levels of domestic threat inflation in both the United States and China, the worst–casing of the other side’s motives and intentions, and the resulting erosion in the confidence of the original understanding over Taiwan reached in the 1970s — threaten to push Beijing and Washington into a crisis over Taiwan that both sides say they want to avoid. To defuse this worrying dynamic, both the United States and China must reaffirm long standing policy on Taiwan, while also undertaking a set of specific actions to further stabilize the relationship between the two countries. The Biden administration should explicitly reject extreme rhetoric towards China and deviations from longstanding policy on Taiwan, such as the framing of Sino–American competition as a titanic struggle between democracy and authoritarianism, and the contention that an independent Taiwan is strategically crucial to overall Asian security. The administration can further inject stability into U.S.–China interactions over Taiwan by re–affirming and clarifying the One China policy through a series of statements, including: The United States opposes any Chinese effort to coerce Taiwan or compel unification through force. However, the United States would accept any resolution of the cross–Strait issue that is reached without coercion and that is endorsed by the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. The United States recognizes that the defense of Taiwan is primarily the responsibility of the people of Taiwan. Relatedly, and in accordance with the U.S.–China normalization agreement, Washington is committed to maintaining only unofficial relations with Taiwan and has no desire to alter this commitment. The United States Government reiterates that it has no intention of infringing on Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity, or interfering in China’s internal affairs, or pursuing a policy of “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan. These statements should be made in combination with actions that bolster cooperative engagement with China, such as the initiation of a combined civilian and military Track 1.5 dialogue with Beijing. We believe that this type of reassurance would lead to corresponding commitments from China that would improve stability in the Taiwan Strait, such as reductions in provocative military exercises and potentially high level Chinese declarations that reject coercive measures towards Taiwan and a specific timeline for reunification. The recent improvements to the Sino–American relationship shouldn’t go to waste. The United States and China should go beyond the mere appearance of stabilization and revitalize the original understanding over Taiwan. Otherwise, they risk a continuous spiral towards full–scale conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Realism, Regional Stability, and Restraint
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America