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491. Defending America: Redefining the Conceptual Borders of Homeland Defense

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Chemical weapons have not been used effectively in attacks on the American homeland. Reports that the bombers of the World Trade Center considered trying to add a chemical weapon like sodium cyanide to their explosives seem to be untrue, and led to an unsubstantiated assertion by the trial judge. There have, however, been a number of attempts to use chemical weapons by domestic extremists and individuals. For example, in 1997, members of the KKK plotted to place an improvised explosive device on a hydrogen sulfide tank at a refinery near Dallas, Texas. There is a well-established, low-level risk that such weapons will be used in the future, although there is no way to predict the frequency of such attacks, their scale, potential success, or lethality.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and America

492. Between Dialogue and Partnership: What North-South Relationship Across the Mediterranean?

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In the post-September 11th evolution a new transatlantic dimension is emerging based in the struggle against terrorism in a global perspective. Terrorism is identified as today's central threat to international security and co-operation.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

493. The Global War on Terrorism

Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
On September 11, terrorists attacked freedom. The world has responded with an unprecedented coalition against international terrorism. In the first 100 days of the war, President George W. Bush increased America's homeland security and built a worldwide coalition that: Began to destroy al-Qaeda's grip on Afghanistan by driving the Taliban from power. Disrupted al-Qaeda's global operations and terrorist financing networks. Destroyed al-Qaeda terrorist training camps. Helped the innocent people of Afghanistan recover from the Taliban's reign of terror. Helped Afghans put aside long-standing differences to form a new interim government that represents all Afghans – including women.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
United States

494. Adversary Use of NBC Weapons: A Neglected Challenge

Author:
John F. Reichart
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Despite years of research, the community's knowledge of how an adversary might use nuclear (and radiological), biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons remains restricted in important ways. The historical data that inform this area are rather limited and largely dated. We do not have much in the way of adversary planning documents or doctrine to study, and nations acquiring NBC weapons do not usually address employment concepts. Despite these gaps, we do know that NBC weapons afford potential adversaries cost-effective force multipliers and that a number of states of concern are actively pursuing their development.
Topic:
Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

495. Kashmir and the "War on Terrorism"

Author:
Cynthia Mahmood
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
Kashmir is one of the conflicts implicated in the current "war" of the U.S. and its allies against certain forms of radical Islam. A long-term solution to the conflict in Kashmir cannot be found without consideration of the wishes of the Kashmiri people. The three-option plebiscite, giving Kashmiris a choice among accession to India, accession to Pakistan, or full sovereignty, is an avenue that must be explored. The United Nations should serve as the organizer of such a plebiscite and should be the ultimate guarantor of its results. Convincing Pakistan and India of the ultimate wisdom of such a course can be part of current negotiations around the events in Afghanistan that now demand our attention.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Middle East, Asia, and Kashmir

496. Prospects 2002 — Euro-Area Economy

Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece focuses on the economic prospects for the euro-area in 2002. The euro-area economy has shown increasing signs of cyclical weakness since the beginning of 2001. These signs, compounded by the effects of accelerated decline in the United States since the September 11 terrorist attacks, indicate continuing stagnation into 2002 and growing difficulties for states to maintain their fiscal positions. SGP requirements are reducing the fiscal room for manoeuvre of euro-area states to respond to the current economic downturn. The absence of concerted intervention represents a considerable risk, particularly if global demand fails to pick up in 2002.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

497. Middle East — Bin Laden Prognosis

Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece examines the prospects for the al-Qaida group and Osama bin Laden's wider terrorist network following the fall of the Taliban and the loss of many of its facilities in Afghanistan. Key elements of bin Laden's network have been seriously damaged. Some operational cells are likely to survive but most are likely to remain inactive for the foreseeable future in order to avoid detection. Al-Qaida is likely to remain active but less effective than hitherto. As long as the reasons for bin Laden's appeal to certain Islamist constituencies remains, new cells and entirely new groups will be formed within migrant communities and among those engaged in regional conflicts around the world.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

498. United STates — Anti-Terrorism Foreign Aid

Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This piece focuses on The changing nature of US foreign assistance priorities in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks. There will be broad support for a rapid expansion of foreign aid designed to counter the terrorism threat and to support key coalition partners. Whether that support is sustainable in the future depends, at least in part, on the programme's success in enhancing US 'homeland security'. If the anti-terrorism foreign aid programme is shown to serve US interests, help erode poverty, promote democracy and stabilise the political positions of coalition partners, public opinion may in future support more robust programmes. However, if a large portion of assistance is mismanaged or abused, and/or accountability and impact are marginal, enthusiasm for foreign aid is likely to be undermined still further.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

499. International — OPEC Meets

Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met on Wednesday, September 26, in Vienna. The uncertainties associated with the international oil market have been greatly compounded by the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States.
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Middle East

500. United States — Fiscal Fallout

Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The president this week signed into law a 40 billion dollar emergency appropriations package in response to the September 11 terrorist attacks. The package forms part of considerable planned spending increases, which in combination with expected tax cuts, will result in the country's fiscal position deteriorating significantly. This will have important implications for Federal Reserve policy, the bond market, and long-term global interest rates.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States