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1. How might the second Trump administration navigate the Middle East?

Author:
Ryan Crocker and Gerald Feierstein
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Donald Trump’s return to the presidency comes at a tumultuous time in the Middle East. While on the campaign trail, Trump vowed to offer strong support for Israel and insisted he can bring peace to the region. What challenges and opportunities will he face on both fronts? And how different is the strategic landscape of today’s Middle East compared to when he left the White House? This on-the-record briefing will feature Amb. (ret.) Ryan Crocker, career diplomat with the US Foreign Service. His previous appointments included US Ambassador to Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Kuwait, Afghanistan, and Lebanon. The briefing will also feature Amb. (ret.) Gerald Feierstein, former US Ambassador to Yemen and Distinguished Senior Fellow on US Diplomacy at MEI. Our experts will discuss what the incoming second Trump administration will mean for the Middle East; the current conflicts in the region; the future of US-Iran relations; and the prospects of securing more normalization agreements between Israel and its neighbors. Speakers Amb. (ret.) Ryan Crocker Fmr. US Ambassador to Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Kuwait, Afghanistan, and Lebanon Amb. (ret.) Gerald Feierstein Fmr. US Ambassador to YemenDistinguished Senior Fellow on US Diplomacy, MEI
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

2. Autonomía estratégica abierta europea y ciclo electoral: Opciones frente a EEUU y China

Author:
Raquel Carretero, Lisa Garcia Bedolla, Vicente Palacio, Agueda Parra, and Ana Olmedo
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
La UE debe contar con capacidades propias que le permitan reducir sus dependencias frente a EEUU y China. Pero Europa afronta dificultades e incertidumbres derivadas de factores políticos y económicos internos a Europa y EEUU. Dos grandes procesos electorales en 2024 (elecciones al Parlamento Europeo el 6-9 de junio, y elecciones presidenciales en EEUU el 5 noviembre) tendrán importantes implicaciones para la llamada “autonomía estratégica europea abierta”. Teniendo cuenta este contexto político, este documento aborda varios aspectos. Primero, las dinámicas de continuidad y de cambio del nuevo ciclo político. Segundo, las tendencias actuales de las relaciones UE-EEUU en tres ámbitos principales: tecnológico-digital; política energética y nueva política industrial del Pacto Verde; y defensa y seguridad. Tercero, la necesidad de la UE de resetear y fortalecer las relaciones económicas con Beijing. Cuarto, las posibles opciones de la UE y escenarios respecto a EEUU y China. Finalmente, algunas propuestas para avanzar en la dirección de una relación estratégica más equilibrada y “abierta” respecto a EEUU, China, y el Sur Global.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Economy, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

3. Between inflation and growth: for an ECB at the service of European power and strategic autonomy

Author:
Nicolas Goetzmann
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The succession of shocks that have hit the global economy since the beginning of 2020 highlights the strengths and vulnerabilities of the different growth models of the major global blocs, namely the United States, China and the European Union[1]. While the United States can still count on domestic consumption, which is the unsinkable foundation of the country's development, China faces the necessary evolution of a model considered obsolete by its authorities[2]. From growth guided by a level of investment that will be difficult to sustain over the long term and a trade balance that is largely in surplus, Xi Jinping's China is under increasing pressure to support its domestic demand as a means of correcting its imbalances. Situated at the centre of this Sino-American competition, the European Union - and more precisely its heartland, the euro area - finds itself weakened by sluggish domestic demand and development based largely on foreign trade, the structure of which has been geopolitically undermined over the last three years. However, the shortcomings of the European growth model came to light in the aftermath of the great financial crisis, which pushed the GDP trajectory onto a path of stagnation, the first consequence of which was that it fell behind the United States, before being overtaken by the Chinese economy in 2021.
Topic:
European Union, Economic Growth, Inflation, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

4. The Causes and Consequences of Refugee Flows: A Contemporary Re-Analysis

Author:
Andrew Shaver
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
The world faces a forcible displacement crisis. Across the world, tens of millions of individuals have been forced from their homes and across international boundaries. The causes and consequences of refugee flows are, therefore, the subjects of significant social science inquiry. Unfortunately, historical lack of reliable data on actual refugee flows has significantly limited empirical inferences on these topics. Using data newly released by the United Nations on annual dyadic flows, we replicate twenty-seven studies published in economics and political science journals on the causes and consequences of these flows. We extend fourteen of these. We find that some of the causes of flows described in the literature are less substantively and/or statistically significant than previously reported while others are more. Generally, with some exceptions, we find that previously reported effects of refugees on security conditions are attenuated, suggesting that the literature’s predominant focus on refugees as sources of violent instability may be overstated.
Topic:
Civil War, Terrorism, and Violence
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

5. Far-Right Violence and the American Midterm Elections: Early Warning Signs to Monitor Ahead of the Vote

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
A narrow focus on aggregate trends in political violence can obscure important new patterns and warning signs. While the total number of political violence events in the United States declined in 2021 after far-right groups stormed the Capitol at the start of the year, trends since then reflect an ongoing evolution in anti-democratic mobilization on the right — not the aftermath of its high-water mark. Many of the same far-right groups and networks involved in the Capitol attack have adapted their activity to fit the new environment. These adaptations have manifested in multiple ways: the landscape of actors has become more defined; demonstration engagement has shifted, with a focus on protests that allow for the co-option of new supporters; some actors, like the Proud Boys, have increased their use of violence; armed protests have proliferated, particularly at legislative facilities; contentious counter-demonstration trends have intensified; offline propaganda and vigilantism is on the rise, especially motivated by white supremacy and white nationalism; and preparatory actions have surged, including recruitment drives and training exercises. ACLED data indicate that political violence in the United States, and specifically violence involving far-right militias and militant social movements, typically manifests in peaks and lulls. Against this backdrop, the recent decline in aggregate events should not be taken as a sign that the threat of violence has abated. On the contrary, current trends indicate that it may only represent a relative calm before the next storm. The United States faces many latent risks, and a wide range of factors that can contribute to and elevate these risks — from the ascendance of extremist protest drivers like white supremacy, to the increased rate of armed demonstrations at statehouses, to a rise in militia training and recruitment campaigns — are intensifying. Monitoring these factors, and these groups, will be critical for detecting emerging threats, particularly in the lead-up to potential flashpoint events, such as this year’s midterm elections.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, and Far Right
Political Geography:
United States

6. Health and Health Care for Women of Reproductive Age: How the United States Compares with Other High-Income Countries

Author:
Munira Z. Gunja, Shanoor Seervai, Laurie Zephyrin, and Reginald D. Williams II
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
The maternal mortality crisis in the United States has been well documented: U.S. women have the highest rate of maternal deaths among high-income countries, while Black women are nearly three times more likely to die from pregnancy-related complications than white women are.1 But maternal deaths and complications may be a bellwether for the U.S.’s wider failures with respect to women’s health and health care. Using data from the Commonwealth Fund’s 2020 International Health Policy Survey and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), this brief compares selected measures of health care access and outcomes for women of reproductive age (18 to 49) in 11 high-income countries. After identifying gaps in U.S. health system performance for women in this age group, we explore some of the policies other nations have put in place to ensure more equitable access and better health outcomes. We also suggest policy options for the United States.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, Reproductive Rights, Reproductive Health, and Abortion
Political Geography:
United States