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41. Turkey Wants to Stitch Iraq and Syria Back Together (Part 1)

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Having observed two decades of instability across its southern borders and anticipating U.S. withdrawals, Ankara is planning steps to end the volatility, including potentially wide-ranging agreements with the Assad regime. Events in the Fertile Crescent since the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq have not been in favor of Turkish security interests. The ensuing Iraqi civil strife, the rise of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS), and Syria’s civil war collectively resulted in regional instability for over two decades, including numerous terrorist attacks against Turkey. Meanwhile, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a NATO-designated terrorist entity that has been fighting Ankara for decades, took advantage of Iraq’s decentralization to establish itself along the border in the semiautonomous Kurdistan Region. On Turkey’s other southern border, the multinational campaign against IS led to a U.S. partnership with the People’s Defense Units (YPG)—the PKK’s armed Syrian wing that later took a leading role in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and gained control over a large swath of the frontier. This partnership became the greatest impediment to a reset in U.S.-Turkey ties. Today, anticipating that the U.S. military presence in Iraq and Syria will decrease significantly, Ankara aims to promote soft recentralization in both neighbors, toward the broader goals of curbing instability across its borders and denying operational space to the PKK. Part 1 of this PolicyWatch discusses how these goals affect Turkish policy in Syria; Part 2 addresses the implications for Iraq.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Partnerships, PKK, Regional Politics, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

42. Supporting the SDF in Post-Assad Syria

Author:
Ido Levy
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
To preserve its only reliable and capable partner in the fight against the Islamic State, the United States must help the SDF deter HTS and fend off Turkey-backed militias. Bashar al-Assad’s fall has quickly changed the map of Syria. While the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies swept out of their base in Idlib to seize major regime strongholds en route to the capital, other opposition groups moved to take territory in the southeastern provinces of Deraa and Quneitra. In the central and southern Badia desert region, the U.S.-backed opposition faction Maghawir al-Thawra has expanded its control around the American garrison at al-Tanf. Remnants of the Islamic State (IS) prowl the desert too, liable to strike at any moment. And in the northeast, the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) moved deeper into Raqqa but lost ground in Tal Rifaat and Manbij due to advances by the Syrian National Army (SNA), the local coalition of Turkey-backed militias. At this fragile moment, U.S. officials must reassess the SDF’s needs to ensure it has the support required to continue the mission that brought the two partners together in the first place—the shared fight against IS, which now includes defending the many northeastern detention facilities that hold thousands of IS members and supporters. This task also entails keeping SNA militias at bay and ensuring that the SDF is prepared to face a renewed HTS offensive if the jihadists decide to push into the northeast.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Syrian War, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

43. Washington Returns to Damascus with High Stakes for Syria’s Transition

Author:
Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The delegation’s findings on key political and security issues will have a major impact on future U.S. engagement with Syria’s new leaders, including the decision on whether or not to remove sanctions. For the first time since October 2011, when Ambassador Robert Ford was pulled from Syria amid U.S. concerns about the Assad regime’s crackdown on protesters, Washington is back in Damascus—this time to engage with the new transitional government led by rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Earlier today, U.S. officials met with HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani (aka Ahmed al-Sharaa) to uncover information on missing Americans Austin Tice, Majd Kamalmaz, and others; they were also scheduled to meet with civil society figures, activists, and representatives of various minority communities. The delegation includes Barbara Leaf, the State Department’s assistant secretary for Near Eastern affairs; Roger Carstens, the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs; and Daniel Rubinstein, a long-time Arabist and retired ambassador recently recalled to duty. Their visit comes on the heels of a Pentagon announcement that the U.S. military presence in Syria has jumped from 900 to 2,000 soldiers, illustrating concerns about how the Islamic State (IS) might take advantage of the new situation. The delegation arrives at a momentous time in Syria’s transition process, which is officially scheduled to last until March 1. Local sources suggest that the second phase of the transition will begin in the coming days, during which HTS is supposed to open the process to more representatives from all of Syrian society, rather than just the HTS loyalists who have overseen the first phase. Therefore, much is at stake for the current U.S. delegation and Washington’s broader efforts to redevelop a Syria policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Transitional Government
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

44. Türkiye’s and the EU’s Coordinated and Divergent Approaches to the 2011 Syrian Crisis

Author:
Yusuf Avar
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
The Syrian crisis has prompted immediate reactions from the EU and a few other countries, including the US, Russia, and Türkiye, as well as some of their proxies. This research purposefully limits itself to examining Türkiye’s and the EU’s reactions to the Syrian civil war. According to the study’s results Türkiye and the EU have differences and similarities in six key policy areas: (1) Assad’s oppressive actions against its people drew criticism from Türkiye and the EU. (2) Türkiye and the EU have suffered as a result of the ISIS danger resulting from the Syrian civil conflict. (3) Türkiye and the EU both have humanitarian concerns and have made an effort to assist Syrian refugees. (4) Türkiye has engaged in two military operations in northern Syria in opposition to the YPG. The EU denounced these military maneuvers by Türkiye. (5) The EU and Türkiye have had discussions over the issue of foreign fighters. The EU criticized Türkiye as it failed to secure its borders, and as a result, foreign fighters utilized the country as a transit between Syria and European nations. (6) Despite opposition from the EU, Türkiye has insisted on creating a “safe zone” in Syria for Syrian refugees.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

45. The Roots of Mistrust in Coalition Building among Syrian Nonprofits: Lessons from the Truth and Justice Charter

Author:
Marianna Al-Tabba
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
For the past 13 years, the establishment and management of alliances in Syria have not been one of the pillars of public affairs work, whether in political, relief, or human rights work, and the field of transitional justice is no exception. Despite the harmony of the parties in vision, goal, or even ideology – and their shared struggles whether political, revolutionary, or any other form – a lack of trust between groups often surfaced, hindering the formation of strong and strategic relationships and delaying the unification of their ranks at a time of great need. This paper attempts to investigate and explore the extent to which lack of trust affects the formation of alliances as perceived by actors in the Syrian public sphere. It examines the nature of the existing relationships between Syrian institutions and organizations and their ability to build alliances around a specific demand or cause that unites them. Due to the overlapping factors and different schools of thought in explaining the emergence and success of different forms of institutional cooperation and their gradations, the paper focuses on one crucial determinant in building strategic cooperation and alliances: trust. It raises a general question about the causes of weak trust between organizations working in the public sphere; its impact on collective action; and the lessons learned to overcome the obstacle of weak trust, focusing on nonprofit organizations working in the field of transitional justice and the movements by victims’ families and survivors. The importance of the topic emerges not only in understanding the causes and deconstructing the lack of trust, or mistrust, among Syrian public affairs workers, and the impact of this on building strong relationships and alliances based on deep trust among its members – something that is desperately needed at the political, human rights, and civil work levels in general. Its importance also emerges from the lessons learned from a previous experience in contemporary Syrian history – a coalition of Syrian associations and institutions that built high levels of trust among themselves. This paper emphasizes the ability of Syrian men and women to create a demanding grassroots movement around the issue of detention and enforced disappearance, a movement that is geographically widespread, driven by the people themselves and prominent women leaders.
Topic:
Civil Society, Coalition, and Trust-building
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

46. Nomads of the Void: Unpacking the Enigmatic Lives and Survival of Syrian Dom Refugee Women in North Lebanon

Author:
Jasmin Lilian Diab and Asli Saban
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
This article investigates the challenges faced by the Syrian Dom community in Lebanon, with a particular focus on the gender-specific adversities encountered by women. Historically nomadic, the Dom have largely settled in the MENA region, though recent conflicts in Syria have displaced many to Lebanon, where they live in precarious conditions alongside other refugees. Through a mixed-methods approach, this research delves into the multiple layers of discrimination experienced by Dom women, exacerbated by their ethnic background, gender, and legal status. Such factors combine to place Dom women in highly vulnerable positions, perpetuating their marginalization and complicating their integration into Lebanese society. By focusing on vulnerabilities, forced labor, sexualization, protection, and intimate-partner and familial dynamics, this paper offers insights into how systemic inequalities intersect with identity formation in a less-explored displacement context within Lebanon. The study concludes with recommendations for targeted interventions aimed at empowering these women, improving their access to necessary services, and facilitating their social inclusion.
Topic:
Minorities, Women, Refugees, Syrian War, Marginalization, Nomad, and Dom People
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

47. Tackling the proxy problem: Mitigating the threat posed by Iran's "Axis of Resistance"

Author:
Alex Vatanka, Nadwa Al-Dawsari, and Sabri Ates
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The war in Gaza has revealed much about the relationships Iran maintains with its proxy forces across the region, from Lebanon and Syria to Yemen and Iraq. While the various militant groups in the “Axis of Resistance” all receive support from the Islamic Republic, each has its own objectives and strategic focus, a point underlined by the Houthis’ emergence as a key new regional player. The group has fired on commercial ships, attacked military vessels, and shut down maritime traffic on one of the world’s most significant trade arteries. If the situation escalates, Iran-backed groups could unleash far greater havoc, both within the region and well beyond its borders. What steps can the US and its partners take now to ensure that additional Iranian-supported forces do not join the Gaza conflict? And how can Iran’s proxies be deterred from acting to help de-escalate tensions across the region? And what, if anything, can Washington do to change the strategic calculations in Tehran?
Topic:
Proxy Groups, Axis of Resistance, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria

48. ISIS’s enduring threat in Syria and Iraq

Author:
Charles Lister and Alistair Taylor
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
On this week's episode, Director of MEI's Syria and Countering Terrorism and Extremism Programs Charles Lister speaks with MEI Editor-in-Chief Alistair Taylor on the resurgence of the Islamic State, or ISIS, in Syria and Iraq. This episode is the first in a several-part series looking at where the terrorist group stands today and its international footprint 10 years on from the founding of the 87-country Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

49. The Fall of Assad, the Future of Syria, and a Region Redrawn

Author:
Brian Katulis, Gonul Tol, Charles Lister, Wael Alzayat, Paul Salem, and Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
A lightning offensive by Syrian rebel groups toppled the Assad regime in less than two weeks, marking the end of a decades-long brutal and oppressive dictatorship. Though many across the country welcome the departure of President Bashar al-Assad, there remains a strong sense of uncertainty about the future. While the leading faction within the victorious opposition forces, the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is moving quickly to consolidate power, outside actors are jockeying to influence the outcome and build relations with the embryonic new government or taking steps to degrade its potential to pose a security threat. To discuss where developments in Syria and the broader region are headed as well as how the incoming US administration may tackle the associated challenges and opportunities starting next year, the Middle East Institute will be hosting an expert panel discussion. The panelists will explore the following questions and more: How were the rebel groups able to make such rapid battlefield gains amidst a perceived “stalemate” in the civil war? Can the international community still halt HTS’s consolidation of power or influence its approach to governance; or could its unilateral takeover of state institutions and policies trigger domestic opposition or even renewed internecine conflict? Will ISIS and other terrorist organizations exploit the present turmoil to regroup or make gains? How do these developments impact the surrounding region, including Turkey’s stance, Iraq’s and Lebanon’s stability, Russia’s military presence, and the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance? And finally, can the United States “stay out” of Syria; and if not, what leverage will it have to shape the fast-moving geostrategic developments?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

50. R2P Monitor, Issue 68, 1 March 2024

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 68 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Cameroon, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, North Korea, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, Central African Republic, and Global Focus