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691. Jordanian Tribal Violence: Historical Context and Current Problems

Author:
Hayley Mohan
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan’s rich developmental history in both the political and social spheres have been complex and dynamic, ever since the country’s creation in the early 1920s. If any research pertaining to Jordan’s society is to be understood, it first must be placed in a historical context, and later examined on its own. Perhaps the most prevalent social issue facing this country is violence between tribes and dangerous infighting. While crime is considered low in Jordan,1 2009 started a seemingly peculiar upswing in the number of violent disputes between tribes. Although the problem itself is not new because Jordan has always been a tribally organized society, the statistics of 2009, which will be discussed later on, provide an interesting foundation for discussion. Using that year as a jumping-off point, we will ask several key questions to anchor our research: What is the historical background of tribes in Jordan? Has this changed over time? What made 2009 an unusual year? What can we conclude, or solutions can be suggested? Ideally, discovered case studies and examples will be able to help us glean an understanding of this complicated social issue.
Topic:
History, Conflict, Violence, Tribes, and Society
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

692. Multilateral Imposition: An Immodest Proposal for the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Author:
Michael Barnett
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Which is more likely in the next five years: that the Israelis and Palestinians negotiate a peace agreement or that they continue a “status quo” that turns into an accidental suicide pact? The safe bet is suicide.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Peace, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

693. Iraq's Three Civil Wars

Author:
Juan Cole
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
All war situations are a little bit opaque, but from reading the Iraqi press in Arabic, I conclude that there are three major struggles for power of a political and violent sort. What’s striking is how little relevant the United States is. It is a superpower, and it is militarily occupying the country, but it appears most frequently to be in the position of going to the parties and saying, “Hey, guys, cut it out. Make nice. Please.” It’s odd that it should be so powerless in some ways, but let me explain. Then, there’s a war for Baghdad. This is the one that Americans tend to know about because the U.S. troops are in Baghdad, and so it’s being fought all around our guys, and we are drawn into it from time to time. The American public, when it thinks about this war, mainly thinks about attacks on U.S. troops, which are part of that war because the U.S. troops were seen by the Sunni Arabs as adjuncts to the Shiite paramilitaries, and they have really functioned that way. Most American observers of Iraq wouldn’t say that the U.S. is an enabler of the Mahdi Army and the Badr Corps paramilitaries of these Shiite fundamentalist parties, but you could make the case that, functionally speaking, that’s how it’s worked out. The U.S. has mainly taken on the remnants of the Ba’ath party, the Salafi jihadis, and other Sunni groups, and has tried to disarm them, tried to kill them, and has opened a space for the Shiite paramilitaries to claim territory and engage in ethnic cleansing and gain territory and power. So that battle between the Sunni Arabs and the Shiite Arabs is going on in Baghdad, is going on in the hinterlands of Baghdad, up to the northeast to Diyala Province, and then south to Babil and so forth. And finally, as if all that weren’t enough, there is a war in the north for control of Kirkuk, which used to be called by Saddam “Ta’mim Province”. Kirkuk Province has the city of Kirkuk in it and very productive oil fields, in the old days at least. Kirkuk is not part of the Kurdistan Regional Authority, which was created by melding three northern provinces together into a super province; however, the Kurdistan Regional Authority wishes to annex Kirkuk to the authority. Regional governments are super-provinces or provincial confederations. Try to imagine what happened—Iraq had 18 provinces in the old days, but it now has 15 provinces and one regional authority. It would be as though Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana got together, erased their state borders, elected a joint parliament and a prime minister, and then told the Federal leaders in Washington that if they would like to communicate with any of those states, they need to go through the regional prime minister, and by the way, we’re not sending any more money to Washington. And don’t even think about keeping federal troops on our soil. So, this is what the Kurds have done. They’ve erased the provincial boundaries that created one Kurdistan government that had -- it has its own military. They’re giving out visas independent of Baghdad. They’re inviting companies in to explore for oil independent of Baghdad. They’re the Taiwan of the Middle East. They’re an independent country. They just don’t say that they are because it would cause a war.
Topic:
Civil War, Religion, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Destabilization
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

694. Iran-U.S.: The Case for Transformation

Author:
Sanam Naraghi-Anderlini and John Tirman
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Thirty years of enmity, disruption, and brinksmanship have yielded very little worthwhile in the relationship between Iran and the United States. The policies in both capitals toward the other are essentially bankrupt and dysfunctional. Each clings to their quiver of grievances against the other, letting the past dictate the future to the detriment of both countries. It may be time to turn this animus on its head—seeking a broad accommodation— and an opportunity for transformational diplomacy. While ample sources of suspicion and distrust have fed this simmering hostility, these sources do not warrant the war footing, attempts at isolation, political violence, and rhetoric of a looming Armageddon that mark the U.S.-Iran tangle. Both countries suf- fer high costs stemming from the confrontation. These two major states, one far more powerful than the other, are bound to compete and test each other, but in a region rife with instability, they also need each other. Iranians are weary of the cacophony of hatred. In America, the Iraq war is still a nightmare and the public is in no mood for more. A comprehensive concordat instead would serve the U.S. and Iran and help steady a very rickety part of the world. What the change is and how it is engineered are crucial, however. There is an appli- cable lesson from diplomatic history: bold and sweeping transformation may be prefera- ble—more successful and, paradoxically, easier to engineer—to small, incremental steps. Whether there is the political acumen in the leadership of either country to initiate such transformative diplomacy is arguable. But the logic of a new concordat is powerful, especially if seen through an unemotional lens of national interests and the security of the United States and Iran.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

695. A Roadmap for a Solution to the Kurdish Question: Policy Proposals from the Region for the Government

Author:
Dilek Kurban and Yılmaz Ensaroğlu
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The Kurdish Question is not a mere ‘terrorism problem,’ but rather an issue with ethnic, cultural, legal, political, social, economic, and psychological dimensions. It was there before the PKK existed; even if the PKK were to be completely eliminated, the problems and demands of the Kurds would persist. The era of armed conflict has inflicted heavy material and emotional losses on the region and Kurds in particular, and on the entire society in general. The state’s failure to pursue policies during non-violent periods in favor of restoring permanent peace has caused it to miss very important opportunities to find a solution, and has created among Kurds a feeling of distrust towards the state. The Kurdish Question, which has so far been a political issue between Kurds and the state, increasingly risks rapid transformation into a clash between the Turks and the Kurds.
Topic:
Politics, Terrorism, Territorial Disputes, Minorities, Conflict, Kurds, and Peace
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

696. The Annapolis Meeting: Too Little Too Late!

Author:
Hassan Barari
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
As of writing this piece, no final date has yet been set for the Annapolis meeting, but most likely it will be the last week of November. Amid the premature optimism, the concerned parties need to realize that the meeting is likely to fail. Indeed, rejectionists on both sides are already rubbing their hands gleefully in anticipation of a colossal failure. Therefore, many observers have warned that this summit requires careful planning and, more importantly, a day-to-day strategy, should the meeting fail. They argue that US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice has backtracked from her original plans and has changed the agenda of the conference in such a way that it will have a limited purpose. The new thinking is that the Annapolis meeting should be seen as a process and not as an event. This article sheds light on the dynamics that will determine the degree of success.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Conflict, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

697. Addressing Iraq in a Charged Political Environment - Winning the Debate Over the War

Author:
Matt Bennett
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
This memo describes how progressives candidates can attack their opponents’ lack of action on Iraq, characterizing them as “satisfied” with the Bush plan for a permanent US presence there and with all other aspects of the Bush administration’s leadership on the war. It goes on to lay out a number of policy ideas to help change course in Iraq and move America toward success in the war.
Topic:
Imperialism, Military Strategy, Elections, and Conflict
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and North America

698. Afghan Transnational Networks: Looking Beyond Repatriation

Author:
Alessandro Monsutti
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
This is the final publication of AREU’s long-term research project looking at Afghans’ transnational networks in Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Conflict, transnationalism, and Repatriation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and Middle East

699. Afghanistan’s Health System Since 2001: Condition Improved, Prognosis Cautiously Optimistic

Author:
Ronald Waldman, Lesley Strong, and Abdul Wali
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
Five years ago, in the immediate post-conflict period, Afghanistan’s health services were in a deplorable state. Based on relatively scant information available at the time, the situation appeared chaotic. Capacity in both public and private sectors was quite limited and the outlook for the future was unclear. The AREU Issues Paper published in July 2002 noted vast differences across the country in access to health services, and drew attention to the severe shortage of health personnel and a “grossly deficient, even absent, infrastructure.” Where health services were available at all, the level and quality of delivery varied considerably, and there was no policy framework within which non-governmental organisations (NGOs) could operate. Instead, healthcare was “delivered on a project basis by many distinct, relatively uncoordinated service providers.”
Topic:
Health, Governance, Conflict, NGOs, and Social Services
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

700. Killing Civilians Intentionally: Double Effect, Reprisal, and Necessity in the Middle East

Author:
Michael L. Gross
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
MICHAEL L. GROSS examines the arguments that Palestinians and Israelis offer when innocent lives are taken. He challenges Palestinian claims that existential threats (supreme emergency) or reprisals for past wrongs can justify terror attacks on noncombatants. At the same time, he objects to Israeli explanations that invoke the doctrine of double effect and claim that noncombatants are not killed intentionally but die as an unintended side effect of necessary military operations.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Conflict, Civilians, and Casualties
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine