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11. Foreign Lobbying in the U.S.

Author:
Ben Freeman and Nick Cleveland-Stout
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
This brief takes a deep dive into a newly available tranche of data tracking foreign influence in the U.S. political process. The new data was released in early 2024 following reforms to the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), which made access to all foreign registrants’ political activities and campaign contributions publicly available. The brief unearths a complex web of foreign influence in the United States — with countries like Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Azerbaijan reaping the benefits of massive political influence campaigns. Influence operations today often follow a standard playbook: outside countries use firms based in Washington to lobby active members of Congress in pursuit of various aims — such as receiving U.S. weapons, currying American favor in regional conflicts, and more general reputation laundering. In 2022 and 2023, FARA registrants reported $14.3 million in political contributions and nearly 130,000 political activities. This relationship between lobbyists representing foreign countries and U.S. policymakers in itself is concerning, raising questions of whether politicians are really prioritizing the interests of their constituents, and of all Americans. To make matters worse, authoritarian regimes represent a majority of the most active countries — including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which placed first and fourth, respectively, among the countries most engaged in political activities under FARA from 2022–23. Greater FARA transparency is certainly a welcome development, but still more can be done to help Americans understand the who, what, and how of the foreign lobbying industry. For one, FARA registrants should be required to report a unique identifier for each office contacted, making it easier to determine lobbyists’ contacts. Greater language specificity in the descriptions of political activities is also needed. In addition, Congress could pass legislation that would introduce civil fines on the underreporting of political activities, although such a step should be accompanied by protections against the abuse of the FARA process.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Conflict, and Military-Industrial Complex
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates

12. Implications of a Security Pact with Saudi Arabia

Author:
Paul R. Pillar
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
The Biden administration is seeking a deal in which Saudi Arabia would extend full diplomatic recognition to Israel in exchange for the United States providing Saudi Arabia a security guarantee, assistance in developing a nuclear program, and more unrestricted arms sales. Such an arrangement would further enmesh the United States in Middle Eastern disputes and intensify regional divisions. It would work against a favorable pattern of regional states working out their differences when the United States leaves them on their own — illustrated by the Chinese-brokered détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Besides being an authoritarian state lacking shared values with the United States, Saudi Arabia under Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has aggressively pursued regional dominance, most notably with its highly destructive war in Yemen. A U.S. security guarantee could motivate MBS to engage in even riskier behavior and draw the United States into conflicts in which it has no stake, such as the sectarian dispute that had led Saudi Arabia to break relations with Iran. An expanded Saudi nuclear program would have a military as well as an energy dimension, with MBS having openly expressed interest in nuclear weapons. Granting the Saudi demand for help in enriching uranium would be a blow to the global nonproliferation regime as well as a reversal of longstanding U.S. policy. A race in nuclear capabilities between Iran and Saudi Arabia may result. Meeting MBS’ demands would not curb Saudi relations with China, which are rooted in strong economic and other interests. The United States could compete more effectively with China in the region not by taking on additional security commitments but instead by emulating the Chinese in engaging all regional states in the interest of reducing tensions. Normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would not be a peace agreement, given the already extensive security cooperation between them. Even the gift of normalization with Riyadh would be unlikely to soften Israel’s hard-line positions regarding the war in Gaza and the larger Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and instead would only reduce further Israeli motivation to resolve that conflict.
Topic:
Diplomacy, National Security, Conflict, Normalization, Joe Biden, and Military
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

13. The Changing Conceptual Landscape of the Russian War in Ukraine (2014-Present) and Syria (2011-Present)

Author:
Piotr Pietrzak
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The main goal of this paper is to present and compare the main developments in the Russian wars in Ukraine and Syria by considering the main patterns, parallels, and changing trajectories that could shed more light onto both of these war zones, which are highly interlinked due to Russia’s leading role in both. It analytically, comparatively, and contemplatively approaches those developments by highlighting multiple similarities and the main differences in global responses to these conflicts. Both conflicts should be seen as highly unpredictable, dynamic, and unnecessarily extended asymmetric proxy wars in which global powers test their new military doctrines and their competitors' responses to their unconventional actions and other unsolicited and indirect interferences in the local dynamism of both wars. Unlike in Syria, the Ukrainian war zone is wholly transformative and ready for the adoption of partial hybridization and the utilization of the new software-defined warfare in combination with conventional weapons.
Topic:
International Relations, Conflict, Syrian War, Russia-Ukraine War, and Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Syria

14. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq's Strategic Role in ISIS Operations—A Crossroads of Conflict

Author:
Frzand Sherko
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Effective counter-narratives are required to weaken the group's ideological appeal, especially the propaganda targeting Kurdish populations. Since the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019, ISIS has undergone significant changes in its strategy and operations, especially in critical Iraqi provinces like Kirkuk, Salahuddin, Diyala, and Nineveh, which have historically been hotspots for insurgent activities and are now playing a pivotal role in the reorganization and operations of ISIS in Iraq. Iraq’s “disputed territories”–areas claimed by both the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)–have long been a haven for terrorist organizations. Terrorist leaders Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Abu Omar al-Baghdadi operated and were eventually killed in hideouts adjacent to disputed areas, and other figures like Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Abu Ibrahim al-Quraishi, and Abu Hassan al-Quraishi took advantage of the shaky security situation to conduct operations in this locations. However, extremist groups do not thrive in these contested areas out of convenience alone; the provinces of Kirkuk, Salahuddin, Diyala, and Nineveh all hold significant strategic, economic, and geographic importance. Due to its vast oil resources, Kirkuk has been an enticing target, while Salahuddin’s proximity to Baghdad gives it immense historical and strategic significance. Diyala’s shared border with Iran makes it valuable as a launch point for cross-border attacks. Nineveh remains a significant symbolic and operational center even after the loss of territorial control by ISIS, as the province is home to Mosul, the once de facto capital of the ISIS caliphate. The diverse ethnic makeup of each of these provinces has likewise been of interest to ISIS as it has looked to exploit potential cleavages. In addition to military operations, ISIS conducts psychological warfare aimed at destabilizing state authority and creating fear among the population. The ongoing instability in these regions, compounded by political disputes and poor governance, furthers the efficacy of these efforts. However, activity in Erbil and Sulimaniyah is also increasingly visible to Kurdish security and counterterrorism forces.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Islamic State, Conflict, Ideology, and Narrative
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

15. Lebanon's Social Protection System Suffers Amidst the Current War: Urgent Action Needed!

Author:
Cynthia Saghir, Farah Al Shami, and Diana Tonea
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
This policy paper assesses Lebanon’s social protection response to the ongoing war and provides recommendations for policymakers to further develop this response and later improve the shock-responsiveness and -resilience of the country’s social protection system. The war in Lebanon has exacerbated the existing economic crisis, leading to mass displacement and increased poverty. The social protection system, already fragmented and underfunded, is struggling to meet the humanitarian needs of the affected population. The emergency response has been inadequate and limited to cash transfers and in-kind donations reaching only a small portion of those in need. Lebanon’s social protection system primarily relies on poverty-targeted social safety nets, which offer limited coverage and are heavily dependent on international funding. These safety nets have been expanded in response to the war but their reach remains relatively narrow. This implies an urgent need for a more comprehensive and coordinated approach to address the crisis – an approach that involves immediate humanitarian assistance as well as longer-term social protection measures that strengthen the system’s shock-responsiveness and -resilience. Linkages between the humanitarian and social assistance systems are also crucial for an integrated and sustainable approach. The paper concludes that for Lebanon's social protection system to become more fit for purpose, universal social security schemes should be prioritized, followed by a plan that tackles the issue of being composed of a complex web of different programs and registries. The government must therefore take decisive action to secure additional funding through domestic resources, improve coordination among stakeholders, and expand the reach of social assistance programs so that vulnerable populations receive the support they need to cope with the current crisis, and have their wellbeing and livelihood constantly protected.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Conflict, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

16. What’s next in the Israel-Iran conflict?

Author:
Eran Etzion, Mick Mulroy, and Alex Vatanka
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The Middle East Institute hosted an on-the-record briefing on what's next in the Israel-Iran conflict. Speakers Eran Etzion Non-Resident Scholar, Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, Middle East Institute Mick Mulroy Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Defense & Security Program, Middle East Institute Alex Vatanka Iran Program Director, Middle East Institute
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

17. Yemen's civil war: ten years later

Author:
Gerald Feierstein, Nadwa Al-Dawsari, and Fatima Abo Alasrar
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Director of MEI’s Arabian Peninsula Program Gerald Feierstein speaks to scholars Nadwa Al-Dawsari and Fatima Abo Alasrar as they reflect on the tenth anniversary of Yemen’s civil war. It’s been ten years since the Houthis seized control of the capital of Sanaa, beginning a cycle of fighting that continues on and off to this day. What happened, what is the current state of the conflict, and where might the country be headed?
Topic:
Civil War, Conflict, and Houthis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

18. The Israel Hamas Conflict: An Analysis on Threats and Security Implications Posed by Iran in the Middle East

Author:
Rahat Anwar and Tajmmal Abbas
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
In the history of world one can trace a series of wars fought between Arabs and Jews on the land of Palestine, which is sacred land for Muslims, Jews and Christians. A country ―Palestine‖ which is inheritance of Arab Muslims is now mostly occupied by Jews and converting into Israel, a state whose idea of existence came into being after Balfour declaration in 1917, and officially came into existence in May 14, 1948. This research has been conducted by consulting many secondary sources including different research articles, international journals and several books regarding Palestinian conflict. Due to the reason of non-recognition of Israel, it had to go through a series of deadly wars in the past but contemporary war is one of deadliest war in the history of this conflict. This study aims to find out Iranian involvement in the war as Iran is vocal supporter of Hamas attack. Objective of this study is to identify the threats to regional security particularly Iran. Iranian involvement is visible, no doubt China has brokered the peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia but long-standing rivalry cannot be overcome overnight. Iran is anti-American since 1979; it has rivalry with both Saudi Arabia and USA. To destroy U.S. brokered Abraham Accords between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Iran allegedly urged Hamas to attack on Israel. This study suggests that Iran often sacrifice its interests over the lives of hundreds of thousands of people’s securities in the region. This study recommended that to stop terrorist financing and by not proving them safe sanctuaries is the only way to de-escalate war and make this region prosperous.
Topic:
Security, Military Intervention, Conflict, Peace, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

19. The economic and social costs of the war in Gaza

Author:
Perrihan Al-Riffai
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
A year after the outbreak of the war in Gaza, which later expanded into Lebanon, the two countries in conflict, the Middle East region, and the global economy have been significantly affected. In Gaza, the war has caused nearly $18.5 billion in infrastructure damage, according to preliminary assessments by the World Bank, the United Nations, and the European Union. The onset of the war also led to supply and demand shocks, causing a 21 percent year-on-year decline in Israeli economic activity in the fourth quarter. Lebanon, already deep in an economic crisis before the war, has seen one of its few stable income sources—tourism—collapse. Additionally, as international shipping routes are redirected away from the Suez Canal to avoid risks in the Red Sea, one of Egypt’s primary sources of revenue in foreign currency. In addition to the war, a convergence of factors—high inflation, mounting debt, population displacement, and natural disasters—has created a complex crisis across the region. This combination threatens to deepen poverty and inequality while intensifying climate-related impacts. This report reviews and analyzes the economic impact of the Gaza war on the countries at the epicenter, including Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, as well as the wider region, including the Maghreb countries and the GCC, and the global economy. It tracks the impact on overall economic growth, key sectors, and other implications such as financial volatility, disinvestment, fiscal burdens, and pressure on the oil market. While the report provides comprehensive coverage of these elements, it is worth noting that the war is expanding to involve additional players, and its impact will likely continue to grow.
Topic:
Conflict, Tariffs, Macroeconomics, Trade, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

20. The Egyptian Financial Crisis: Implications for the region, and for Israel too

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Egypt continues to play an active role in regional affairs, including the Aqaba emergency meeting on the Palestinian situation (February 26) and the ongoing effort to prevent escalation in Gaza. At the same time, Cairo is in the middle of a significant financial crisis. The effects of the war in Ukraine – specifically, grain shortages – brought the Egyptian pound to more than 30 to the dollar, up from 20 in November and 15 in early 2022, facilitated by deliberate government action in response to demands by the IMF. Inflation still soars, and so does youth unemployment. All this could destabilize a nation of 105 million on our border, with dire consequences.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Conflict, Fiscal Policy, and Financial Stability
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, Egypt, and MENA