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2. Domestic Disagreements Limit Netanyahu’s Options with Washington
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As the Hamas-Israel war enters a new phase, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is finding it increasingly difficult to balance relationships inside his government and with the White House. On the military front, Israel has taken most of northern Gaza, though an estimated 5,000-6,000 Hamas fighters remain active in various tunnel networks. Major combat operations have largely shifted to central and southern Gaza, while the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have released most of the 360,000 reservists mobilized at the beginning of the war and withdrawn some forces for retraining. Yet the situation is murkier on the diplomatic and political fronts. Earlier today, Netanyahu and President Biden spoke with each other for the first time in almost four weeks, and the prime minister is fundamentally at odds with Benny Gantz’s centrist National Unity party. When Gantz joined the government shortly after the October 7 attacks, he helped dilute the influence of the far-right parties led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir while focusing the cabinet on the mutual goal of driving Hamas from power in Gaza. Yet their policy differences have become more salient since then, and Netanyahu seems convinced that Gantz—who is riding high in the polls—will soon leave the government to capitalize on the prime minister’s wartime unpopularity in potential early elections. This has made Netanyahu more dependent on his far-right ministers, much to the consternation of the White House.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Domestic Politics, Conflict, and Benjamin Netanyahu
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
3. How Safe is Eastern Mediterranean Gas?
- Author:
- Colby Connelly, Gregory Brew, and Karen Young
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing to discuss the security of offshore gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the state of the international gas market given the ongoing tension and conflict in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Security, Markets, Gas, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean
4. The Gaza War's Regional Reverberations
- Author:
- Randa Slim and Alistair Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- On this week's episode, President and CEO of the Middle East Institute Paul Salem and Director of MEI’s Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program Randa Slim speak to MEI's Editor-in-Chief Alistair Taylor about growing concerns over the potential for large-scale regional escalation as the Gaza war continues. *Note: This episode was recorded before drone attacks that killed US soldiers in Jordan on 1/28. *
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Conflict, Escalation, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
5. Children’s “Right to Play” In Gaza
- Author:
- Ana Davis
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Like children everywhere, Gaza’s boys and girls should be playing and enjoying their childhoods, but the actions of the Israeli government and military make that impossible
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Children, Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Play
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
6. Turn on the Light: Why tackling energy-related challenges in the nexus of water and food in Syria cannot wait
- Author:
- Anna Cervi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- This discussion paper contributes to the broader discourse on the nexus between Water, Energy and Food (WEF) in parts of Syria where Oxfam works. It explores the main causes behind the deterioration of the WEF sectors and the impact they have on households across Syria. The paper also focuses on aspects that directly impact and limit Oxfam’s work inside Syria, in the delivery and implementation of Water, Sanitation and Hygiene; Livelihoods; Food Security and Protection interventions. Addressing the WEF Nexus in Syria is key in delivering more effective and sustainable interventions; and helping Syrians restore their lives.
- Topic:
- Water, Conflict, Syrian War, Energy, and Humanitarian Response
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
7. The Gaza War – Affective Polarization and the Future of Democracy
- Author:
- Cengiz Günay
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- The terrible terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent War in Gaza have not only affected the Middle East, but they have also had a disruptive impact on Western democracies. Divisions between those who support Israel’s fight against Islamist terrorism and those who the foreground the sufferings of Palestinian civilians have overlapped with deep affective polarization in many societies. The two positions seem to be irreconcilable and leave little to no room for empathy and dialogue. This report highlights a growing overlap between the perception of international conflicts and domestic polarization over identity issues and values.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Conflict, Polarization, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
8. The Role of Ideas and Identities in Shaping Economic Decisions: The Eastern Mediterranean Crisis and Turkey-Greece-Cyprus Triangle
- Author:
- Hacer Soykan Adaoğlu
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- The discovery of new natural gas resources in the Eastern Mediterranean fueled the tension in the region and led to a highly complicated crisis involving multiple actors. This study adopts a constructivist approach in analyzing the political economy of the Eastern Mediterranean energy crisis by relying on the role of identities and ideas in shaping economic decisions. The historical enmity between Turkey and Greece over Cyprus is at the heart of the crisis. Thus, the study focuses on the Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus triangle to reveal the impact of Turkey’s image constructed by Greece and the Republic of Cyprus, on the political-economic aspect of the decisions of Greece and Greek Cypriots. To accomplish this objective, a two-stage content analysis was conducted by filtering the official statements of Greece and the RoC from their respective foreign ministries, utilizing the keyword “Eastern Mediterranean.” By scrutinizing the official discourses and documents, the analysis aims to delve into the image of Turkey held by these actors.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Constructivism, Identity, Energy, Natural Gas, and Historical Enmity
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
9. Israel against Iran: regional conflict scenarios in 2024
- Author:
- Erwin van Veen
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Four scenarios capture the main dynamics of conflict between Israel and the US on the one hand, and Iran and the axis of resistance on the other. They are: ‘a fight for the status quo’, ‘shifting red lines’, ‘limited war’ and ‘total war’. The first two scenarios amount to muddling through under the permanent threat of escalation, which could happen due to unintended yet possibly catastrophic incidents. The more warlike scenarios signify a shift to high-intensity war across large parts, or all, of the region. As 7 October 2023 created tighter linkages between the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories and the regional conflict between Israel/US and Iran, the violent dynamics of either issue can trigger each scenario. Meanwhile, scenario pathways lie so close to each other that tipping points can swiftly transform one scenario into another. Together, the scenarios point to the need to develop conflict prevention measures between Israel, the US and Iran – such as hotlines, protocols that spell out red lines and tolerable action/reaction bandwidths or even demilitarised zones – between now and the US presidential elections in November. The core strategic objectives of the conflict parties suggest that progress is possible. Israel seeks to restore the security of its northern border without an all-out war against Hezbollah or Iran. It also intends to continue occupation. It does not care enough about normalisation with Saudi Arabia to discontinue annexation, which means it will not alter the regional security order to an extent that could truly threaten Iran. Tehran, in turn, seeks good relations with the Persian Gulf states, recognition as a regional power and the isolation of Israel. The US wishes to uphold Israel’s security by reducing the risk of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, but without triggering a region-wide, high-intensity conflict. A precarious balance might be achieved, for example if Israel halts the in-your-face elements of its expanding occupation, a reinforced UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) takes up position on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border, US sanction enforcement against Iran is somewhat loosened and the axis of resistance, including Iran, observes a longer-term ceasefire regarding Israel.
- Topic:
- Security, Conflict, Regional Politics, and Axis of Resistance
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
10. A Saudi Accord: Implications for Israel-Palestine Relations
- Author:
- Jeremy Pressman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- The Biden administration and Israel’s Netanyahu government have both expressed support for the idea of a trilateral agreement in which Saudi Arabia would normalize diplomatic relations with Israel in exchange for the United States providing significant benefits to Saudi Arabia, such as security guarantees. A major selling point has been the claim that such an agreement could pave the way to settling the bitter Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which has again erupted into a central threat to peace in the Middle East. However, given the experience of the Trump administration’s Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between four Arab states and Israel with the hope of moving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to a resolution, deep skepticism is warranted. The Abraham Accords did nothing to advance Palestinian-Israeli conflict resolution. Even before October 7, there was no hint of Israeli moderation in response to the accords. Since October 7, we have witnessed the largest Palestinian terrorist attack in Israeli history, followed by Israel’s destruction of Gaza and the killing of thousands of Palestinians in response. This conflict risks destabilizing the entire Middle East. This brief reviews the relevant history and incentives around the claimed relationship between Israeli-Palestinian conflict resolution and Israeli-Arab normalization agreements. It concludes that a U.S.-brokered normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia would be counterproductive to Israeli-Palestinian peace. Indeed, recent history suggests that Saudi Arabia and the United States would be wasting potential leverage for influencing Israeli policy and that the regional approach unhelpfully diverts attention away from the core of the Arab-Israeli conflict, Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory. Rather than pursue the already failed approach of seeking peace through the normalization of relations between Israel and third-party countries, a better route would include using U.S. leverage to directly drive Israeli-Palestinian peace. To do this, the U.S. should: 1.) Use its leverage through military aid to secure a permanent ceasefire in Gaza as a matter of urgency; 2.) Refocus on the core issues of Israeli-Palestinian peace, such as occupation, and demand genuine, substantive concessions from the Israeli government; and 3.) Fully integrate the use of U.S. leverage, such as arms sales and military assistance, into the pursuit of these goals.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, National Security, Hegemony, Conflict, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Administration
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, United States of America, and UAE