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431. Global Dynamics in a Year of Domestic Contestations and Political Shifts

Author:
Karim El Aynaoui, Paola Magri, Samir Saran, Harsh V. Pant, and Vivek Mishra
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
2024 marked the largest election year in history, with millions of people across the world going to the polls to elect their representatives and leaders. However, in the Global North, Donald Trump’s decisive election victory in the United States threatens to undermine multilateral governance structures that are already under strain. In the Global South, emerging economies from the expanded BRICS group and beyond strive to speak with a single voice, and their actions continue to be shaped by national dynamics. How will domestic shifts impact international collaboration across the globe? Will we experience new trade wars? Will efforts to tackle climate change slow down? And how to restore hope and support a newfound impetus in multilateral governance? Seeking to answer these questions, the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in India and the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) in Morocco, are delighted to announce the launch of the 2nd Annual Trends Report, involving experts from the three think tanks.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, Science and Technology, Governance, Economy, Global South, Multilateralism, Donald Trump, Energy, Geoeconomics, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

432. How the West loses public opinion in Europe’s Neighborhood

Author:
Vedran Džihić and Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
For many, the fall of the Iron Curtain marked the final victory of democracy and Western liberalism over autocracy and communism. Over the past decade, however, the liberal world order has been challenged by emerging, mostly authoritarian, international actors. The rise of these autocratic regimes has coincided with a decline in Western influence in Europe’s neighborhood, including the Western Balkans, Turkey, and the MENA region. Once a dominant force, the West’s normative influence is now waning, counterbalanced by countries such as Russia and China, as well as regional powers such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, which are increasingly exerting influence through cultural, economic, and military engagement. This Policy Analysis examines the evolving public perception of the West in the Western Balkans, Turkey, and the MENA region, identifying the myths, narratives, and political rhetoric that shape local attitudes and increasingly complicate Europe’s relations with its neighbors. Public opinion in these regions about the United States and Europe varies, of course, from country to country. But one trend is clear: the West’s normative power is a shadow of its former self. Only 35% of Serbian citizens viewed EU membership favorably in 2022, with many favoring alliances with Russia. Meanwhile, in Turkey, only 14.3% of the public thinks of the United States as a friend, marking a sharp decline from previous decades. In the MENA region, a 2022 poll found that 64% of Egyptians preferred China over the United States, and recent surveys reveal a substantial rise in anti-American sentiment across the region amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Notably, the EU generally maintains a relatively more positive image compared to the US. After all, the EU remains a major trading partner across the region. Over the last few years, however, the EU’s reputation in the Arab world has been increasingly damaged by its migration policy and its support for Israel, both of which are often seen as emblematic of Western double standards. Many in these regions increasingly favor diversified partnerships, including with actors such as China and Russia. Although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine initially boosted support for the EU, rising anti-Americanism and dissatisfaction with Western positions in the Middle East conflict reflect enduring divisions. As a result, the West’s ability to promote democracy and a rule-based order is severely constrained. Reversing this negative trend in public perception requires a long-lasting endeavor and should be a key priority for policymakers in both Brussels and Washington, D.C.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, European Union, Influence, and Anti-Americanism
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Western Balkans

433. Shifting Equations: Behind the Armed Factions' Attacks on Syrian Government-Controlled Areas

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On November 27, 2024, Syrian armed factions, led by what is known as "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" (HTS), formerly "Al-Nusra Front" and once affiliated with Al-Qaeda, launched extensive attacks against Syrian government-controlled areas in an operation dubbed "Operation Deterrence of Aggression." These armed factions successfully seized Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, and made advancements towards Hama. This comes amid efforts by the Syrian government to launch a counteroffensive against the armed factions. The armed factions declared that the aim of their surprise attack was to deliver a "preemptive strike" against the Syrian government forces, marking the first significant assault since the Turkish-Russian ceasefire signed in March 2020.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Al Qaeda, Syrian War, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

434. The Accelerating Tragedy of Syria’s Displaced: Failed Commitments, Forced Returns, and the Normalization of International Crimes

Author:
Bridges of Truth
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
The over 50-year-long authoritarian rule of the Assad family and the 14 years of conflict in Syria were characterized by repression, widespread human rights atrocities, and a culture of impunity. Few if any Syrians have not been brutalized in some way. The Syrian refugee crisis, now in its second decade, and the legacy of atrocities committed over decades stands as one of the most enduring and complex humanitarian challenges of our time. This report delves into the ethical, legal, and practical challenges surrounding the repatriation of Syrian refugees and discusses the broader justice needs of those returning and those who remained inside Syria. It argues that any repatriation process must be informed, dignified, safe, and voluntary, strictly adhering to international norms that safeguard the rights of refugees. It also scrutinizes what “safety” and “security” mean for Syrians and what durable peace requires. The analysis extends to key regional contexts, including Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, and the European Union, to highlight the diverse challenges and risks faced by Syrian refugees. In these regions, refugees encounter various forms of pressure, ranging from economic hardship and restrictive legal environments to forced returns, that are misrepresented as voluntary repatriations. The report advocates for a rights-based approach, one that prioritizes the safety, dignity, and well-being of displaced Syrians and the many other victims of the conflict and authoritarian rule. It calls for a comprehensive political solution, particularly the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2254, and emphasizes the need to address the root causes of the Syrian conflict and to establish a framework for accountability and justice for victims. It identifies steps for addressing violations in connection with forced return and forced displacement; for shedding light on the legacy of violations and harms that Syrians have experienced in Syrian and as refugees; for supporting existing and long-term accountability processes; and for advancing legal, constitutional, and institutional reform.
Topic:
Reform, Refugees, Transitional Justice, Criminal Justice, Syrian War, Memory, Institutions, Peace Process, and Forced Displacement
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

435. ‘The Search for People’s Well-Being’: Mainstreaming a Psychosocial Approach to Transitional Justice

Author:
Virginie Ladisch and Shayna Lewis
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
The field of transitional justice is increasingly recognizing the relevance of mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS) in contexts of massive human rights violations. Despite growing advocacy and awareness at the global policy level, however, the field lacks a systematic approach to the issue, signified by the persistent conception of MHPSS solely as a form of service provision to victims and survivors. This study contributes to the development of such an approach, one that applies a psychosocial lens to analyze contexts, assess needs, and design and implement programming that has a positive, transformative impact on the well-being of victims and communities, as well as broader social systems. Drawing on experiences in contexts such as Australia, Canada, Colombia, The Gambia, Nepal, Uganda, and Syria, the report also offers guidance for supporting the mental health and well-being of transitional justice practitioners and addresses practical considerations as they operationalize MHPSS within their own work. At the level of formal transitional justice processes, a psychosocial approach can be integrated into reparative justice, truth-telling initiatives, and judicial processes seeking criminal accountability. Beyond formal processes, though, a psychosocial lens should be a foundational component of all aspects of transitional justice work. It requires a deep understanding of context and the psychosocial needs of a given society, community, or group. It also requires the development of responses that address those needs across different interventions. This study therefore offers guidance regarding key points of consideration for both civil society and government actors involved in transitional justice: embedding work in local communities, creating conditions for positive participation, overcoming stigma, identifying clear roles, building collaboration across silos, developing a long-term process, focusing on all stages of work, considering trauma among leaders and institutions, securing adequate funding, and measuring progress. The report argues that a psychosocial approach needs to be outward to inform analysis of the overall context, design of the intervention, and support for victims, as well as inward to consider how trauma affects organizational structures, team dynamics, and individuals’ ability to do their work.
Topic:
Sustainable Development Goals, Criminal Justice, Memory, Justice, Reparations, Gender, Violence Prevention, Youth Engagement, and Institutional Reform
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Middle East, Canada, Asia, Colombia, South America, Nepal, Syria, North America, and Gambia

436. Transforming Social Relations: Restorative Responses to Massive Human Rights Violations

Author:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
Restorative justice and transitional justice are closely and fundamentally related responses to crime. They emphasize shared values and promote similar frameworks that seek to clarify responsibilities, and they both address the inherent limitations of existing institutions: for restorative justice, the limitations of retributive systems in dealing with domestic crimes; for transitional justice, the additional limitations of conventional or compromised rule of law institutions in dealing with serious and massive international crimes. In many ways, restorative justice is at the center of transitional justice. While scholars and practitioners of transitional justice have consistently applied the concepts of restorative justice, in practical terms, there are few examples of restorative justice practices being explicitly integrated into transitional justice processes, specifically those aimed at criminal accountability. There is also a general lack of understanding within both fields about what such integration means or requires. This report offers reflection, clarity, and guidance on the application of a restorative justice framework in contexts of massive human rights violations, including the advantages, risks, opportunities, and challenges of such an approach. The analysis is based on the experiences of Colombia, Sierra Leone, Tunisia, and the Bangsamoro region of the Philippines, which represent a range of different processes that all either integrated or reflected the practices or principles of restorative justice. These principles include stakeholder participation and repair of harm, and the practices include the use of direct or indirect dialogue or engagement between victims and perpetrators to resolve crimes. The study's findings address the role of dialogue between victims and perpetrators; the importance of engagement with communities and society in establishing a link between the micro and macro levels; the contribution of alternative or restorative sanctions in facilitating participation and repair; the need for integrity, legitimacy, and efficacy of process; and the coherence of restorative justice with other justice, peacebuilding, and transitional processes.
Topic:
Human Rights, Reform, Transitional Justice, Criminal Justice, Institutions, Reparations, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Asia, Colombia, South America, Sierra Leone, and Tunisia

437. The Truth About Corruption: Reviewing the Tunisia Truth and Dignity Commission’s Report on Corruption Under Dictatorship

Author:
Ruben Carranza, Mohamed Azer Zouari, and Ichraq Ghdiri
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
With respect to fulfilling its mandate to investigate and to hold accountable those who committed or enabled corruption during the Ben Ali dictatorship, Tunisia’s Truth and Dignity Commission (TDC) accomplished the most basic roles of a truth commission, from conducting a public hearing, to taking statements from victims and witnesses, to releasing a report. To some extent, the TDC was also able to link corruption to the marginalization of the country’s poorest regions and to identify potential funding for reparations. The commission had legal and political power to obtain information, a USD $19 million budget, 567 staff, and significant public attention. It had the resources and power to systematically seek and tell the truth and draw a roadmap for dismantling the dictatorship’s corruption network, including laying the foundations for prosecuting the most corrupt Ben Ali family members, cronies, and officials. It also had a clear mandate to identify the root causes of marginalization in Tunisia. There were significant political obstacles to fulfilling its mandate, but the TDC simply failed to maximize and properly use these tools, resources, and powers. It also undermined its own credibility by the lack of transparency in the “arbitration” and “reconciliation” process it followed in dealing with suspected perpetrators of corruption. Nevertheless, the TDC’s final report tells a larger set of truths. Its findings and recommendations on corruption can be linked to its findings on repression committed by the dictatorship, as well as to its recommendations involving the neoliberal economic and social policies prescribed by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund and implemented by Ben Ali and now his successors. The Tunisian experience also reaffirms that, in transitional justice processes in the global South, corruption and economic crimes ought to be examined for truth telling to be complete and for accountability to include those who profited from or enabled corruption.
Topic:
Corruption, Reform, Transitional Justice, Criminal Justice, Institutions, Reparations, and Truth Commissions
Political Geography:
Middle East and Tunisia

438. Repairing from the Bench: From Finding Responsibility to Fashioning Judicial Redress

Author:
Adriana Garcia Garcia, Fatima Yasmin Bokhari, and Masha Lisitsyna
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
Violence perpetrated by the police and the military is dominating news around the world. Survivors, victims, activists, and lawyers on all continents have filed lawsuits against these violations in judicial processes. Among the key objectives for victims are to seek the truth and confirmation from authorities that a wrong was done to them and to obtain reparations. The premise that harm should be repaired is routine in domestic legal systems around the world. But what does the obligation to provide reparations mean, particularly when serious human rights violations are at issue? While reparations may be narrowly defined as the relief afforded to a successful claimant in a given proceeding, in practice they can take a range of forms. The right to reparation has expanded in recent decades through interpretations of international norms, in particular, the right of victims of human rights violations to an effective remedy. This report draws on that evolving interpretation of international law and jurisprudence, much of it developed by regional human rights institutions in Africa, the Americas, and Europe; UN treaty bodies; and some innovative domestic courts. It identifies a series of judicial decisions interpreting international human rights law that have affirmed the content of the right to reparation for serious human rights violations that have upheld the rights of victims as much as possible. More than an analysis of the state of the field of the recognition of the right to reparation, the report provides guidance to human rights defenders and courts that are trying to respond to victims of such violations in ways that affirm their dignity and rights. This guide also explores how domestic courts have provided judicial reparations at the national level. Two relevant questions are considered: Have they in fact complied with international decisions and relevant norms regarding reparations? Have they delivered by doing those things that we believe courts are better suited to do on behalf of victims? At the domestic level, very few analyses exist on how domestic judges grant reparations or the compliance of their decisions with international law, jurisprudence of international human rights courts, and decisions by international human rights bodies that govern reparations. This guide seeks to fill this gap through the analysis of decisions of domestic courts around the world with different specialties.
Topic:
Transitional Justice, Criminal Justice, Memory, Judiciary, and Reparations
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America, and North America