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512. From Tehran To Beirut To Jerusalem: Iran And Hizballah In The Palestinian Uprising
- Author:
- Reuven Paz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Arab leaders gather in Amman for the first regular Arab summit in a decade, non-Arab Iran is keenly watching to see whether Arab heads-of-state once again make grandiose promises to support the Palestinians. If Arab leaders fail to deliver on these promises, as has been the case with Arab financial commitments to the Palestinians, it would open the door for Tehran to build on Hizballah's success in Lebanon and to deepen its already worrisome role in the Israeli–Palestinian arena.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, Palestine, Arabia, Jerusalem, Lebanon, and Beirut
513. Special Policy Forum Report; Imagining A Likud Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Dore Gold
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- February marks ten years since the end of the Gulf War. The situation in the Middle East today is vastly more dangerous than in 1991. The favorable regional conditions in 1991 that allowed the current peace process to begin have been reversed. Three key trends are the following: After Iraq's defeat in the Gulf War, it was placed under UN monitoring and extensive sanctions, thereby removing a major threat from Israel's calculus. Today, the situation is drastically different, with the absence of UN inspections for more than two years and the deterioration of sanctions against Iraq. In 1991, Iran was still recovering from its exhaustive war with Iraq and could not fully participate in regional, specifically Arab–Israeli, affairs. By contrast, Iran is currently testing intermediate-range missiles and is expressing its strategic weight in places like Lebanon, where it has increased its support to Hizballah. In 1991, the USSR was crumbling before its eventual collapse and was no longer in a position to offer strategic and military support to the enemies of Israel, while its successor — the Russian Federation — has more or less acquiesced to U.S. positions on the Middle East. Since 1996, however, Russia has taken a contrary approach to many U.S. policies and leadership in the region, in particular with regard to Iraqi sanctions and weapons inspections and the transfer of missile technology to Iran.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Peace Studies, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Lebanon
514. Lebanon — Israeli Raid
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Israel last week launched an air raid against a Syrian radar station in Lebanon. The air raid has raised the stakes in the low-level military confrontation between Hizbollah and Israel. It has also exacerbated Lebanese internal divisions and exposed the lack of a national consensus on Hizbollah's cross-border operations. The Israeli raid has set a precedent and raised the stakes in Tel Aviv's confrontation with Hizbollah along the Lebanese border. Although neither Syria nor Israel is interested in a military confrontation, there are no guarantees that the situation will not spin out of control and lead to a limited regional conflict.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
515. From Shebaa To Al-Quds: The Evolution Of Hizballah
- Author:
- Yossi Baidatz and Rachel Stroumsa
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- While international attention has been focused on the shift from diplomacy to violence in the Israeli–Palestinian arena, the "comeback" of Lebanon's Hizballah organization as an instigator of conflict has been, to some observers, a surprise. Following Israel's withdrawal from the "security zone" in May 2000, it was widely held that Hizballah would rest on its laurels and focus on its political/social agenda inside Lebanon. Instead, as recent events show, Hizballah has chosen to persist in its military strategy against Israel. Indeed, in contrast to the low-intensity conflict on the Palestinian front, Hizballah's actions have the potential to trigger a full-scale, inter-state war.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Lebanon
516. The Israeli-Lebanese Border Dispute And Resolution 425: Recent Declarations By The United States And The United Nations
- Author:
- Liat Radcliffe
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- "The Arab leaders affirm that just, comprehensive peace will not be achieved except with . . . the restoration of all the occupied Arab territories, including full Israeli withdrawal from . . . southern Lebanon to the internationally recognized borders, including Shebaa farms, the release of Arab prisoners in Israeli prisons in implementation of the relevant UN resolutions. . . ."
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Lebanon
517. Palestinian Refugees In Lebanon: New Source Of Cross-Border Tension?
- Author:
- Nicole Brackman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- While Hizballah still mulls over its options in the wake of Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon–terrorism, political activism, or both–there remains in Lebanon one other sizable community that could be the source of renewed tension and violence: the 350,000 Palestinian refugees. This group has a long and tortured history in Lebanon, but the development of the Oslo process (which most refugees in Lebanon perceive as an illegitimate betrayal of their cause), along with both the loss of Syrian-Lebanese leverage over Israel following unilateral withdrawal and the increasing desperation of the refugees, has fostered those ideological movements inside the refugee camps that may turn violent in order to bring attention to the refugees' humanitarian plight.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Lebanon
518. The Israel-Lebanon Border: A Primer
- Author:
- Frederic C. Hof
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 16, Israel officially notified the United Nations (UN) that southern Lebanon would be evacuated in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 425, adding further weight to the March 5, 2000, announcement by the Israeli cabinet that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would "redeploy on the border with Lebanon by July 2000." Twenty-two years after the passage of UNSCR 425, Israel has decided to leave Lebanon unconditionally.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Lebanon
519. Special Policy Forum Report: Crossing Between Two Tracks — Barak, Syria, And The Palestinians
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from southern Lebanon announced by Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak looms large. Set for July 7, this withdrawal is closely linked to the Syrian track of negotiations. It will end the fifteen-year status quo of the security zone, with Israel planning to defend itself from the international border with Lebanon. The target date is also a deadline for the negotiations with the Syrians, as nine years after the peace conference in Madrid we are likely to witness either a breakthrough or a breakdown.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria
520. The South Lebanon Army And Syria-Israel Talks
- Author:
- Gal Luft
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- While Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Syrian Foreign Minister Faruq al-Shara are talking peace at Shepherdstown, the fighting in south Lebanon still goes on. Last time the two leaders met in Washington in December, the party was almost spoiled after a stray shell fired by South Lebanese Army (SLA) gunners hit an elementary school in the Lebanese village of Arab Salim, wounding twenty-four children. Residents of Israel's northern settlements anticipating Hizballah's wrath had to spend the night in their bomb shelters. Only after Israel's prompt apology, describing the incident as "an unfortunate mistake," did Hizballah, breaking with its usual pattern, agree not to retaliate by firing katyusha rockets at Israel's north.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria