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51. Transatlantic Trends 2023: Public Opinion in a Shifting Global Order

Author:
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, Martin Quencez, and Gusine Weber
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Transatlantic Trends 2023 presents the results of representative surveys conducted in 14 countries on both sides of the Atlantic: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Divided into five chapters, this report assesses public opinion on contemporary structural issues impacting the world order, transatlantic relations, security and defense, China, and global challenges.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
China, United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, France, Poland, Germany, Global Focus, and United States of America

52. Grayzone Aggression: The Need for Deterrence by Denia

Author:
Elisabeth Braw
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Cyber deterrence needs to rely on a combination of deterrence by punishment of select attacks and deterrence by denial. By definition, punishment means that deterrence has failed, but given that it’s impossible to deter all cyber attacks and intrusions, Western governments with offensive cyber capabilities could retaliate against specific cyber attackers. The harm done to targets of such retaliation and the arbitrary nature of how they’re selected for punishment would increase the cost in most cyber attackers’ cost-benefit analysis. The public also expects the government to avenge, particularly egregious cyber attacks.
Topic:
Security, Cybersecurity, Deterrence, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
Global Focus

53. Outer Space, Information Warfare, and the Truth

Author:
Gabrielle Lim and Joan Donovan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Despite the distance, outer space and Earth are linked. However, our increasing dependence on space-based assets makes parsing the multitude of challenges and tradeoffs more difficult. Amidst talks of great power competition, space weapons, and commercialization there are equally pressing issues concerning production of knowledge, truth, and accountability. Though these topics sometimes overlap with national security (as with arms treaties or interstate war), they also affect the broad concept of human security—the wellbeing and safety of individuals and communities. As states and international organizations consider what to do to ensure the sustainable development and use of outer space, concerns should go well beyond simply reducing the level of debris, whether asteroids should be mined, or what qualifies as a space weapon.
Topic:
Security, Development, Strategic Competition, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:
Global Focus and Space

54. Cyber-Nuclear Weapons: Impact on the Modern Warfare Landscape

Author:
Shabana Fayyaz and Baqir Malik
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The popular trends of information technologies have created a virtual world around the globe with the domain of cyberspace, which offers plenty of opportunities and challenges. In the last few years, several events have been described in terms of cyber warfare or the use of cyber weapons, leading to critical international security concerns. At the same time, there is little research on the definitions and power of what constitutes a cyber weapon and how it can be profiled. In the age of globalization and with the dynamic digital environment a new way of strategy and thinking is developing to introduce the new weapons, which has challenged the strategic environment around the globe and changing the concept of warfare in 21st century. The present article is to develop a preliminary hypothesis for to identifying the power of cyber weapon and how it relates with the nuclear weapon to examining the changing landscape of modern warfare. The comparative analysis of cyber weapons and nuclear weapons will help to understand the exact nature of cyber weapons with comparison of nuclear weapons to conclude which one is more preferable and dangerous in modern warfare techniques. The paper is divided into three sections. First part is brief introduction of genesis of cyber weapons, nature, evolution and its different types. The second part is comparison of cyber weapons to the nuclear weapons based on diverse characteristics (developing of weapons, security, arsenal, uses, target etc.). The third part is an analysis cyber weapon vis-a-vis nuclear weapon on the impact level. The paper conclude that the development of cyber-nuclear weapons has significantly altered the nature of contemporary warfare techniques. As technology continues to advance, the use of a cyber weapons has becomes increasingly likely, which could result in devastating consequences. It is important for nations to develop effective cybersecurity measures and maintain a strong nuclear deterrence strategy to prevent such scenarios from occurring.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Cybersecurity, and Weapons
Political Geography:
Global Focus

55. PART I: The Singleton Paradox On the Future of Human-Machine Teaming and Potential Disruption of War Itself

Author:
Ben Zweibelson
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
Technological innovation has historically been applied in war and security affairs as a new tool or means to accomplish clear political or societal goals. The rise of artificial intelligence posits a new, uncharted way forward that may be entirely unlike previous arms races and advancements in warfare, including nuclear weapons and quantum technology. This article introduces the concept of a singleton as a future artificial intelligent entity that could assume central decision making for entire organizations and even societies. In turn, this presents what is termed a “singleton paradox” for security affairs, foreign policy, and military organizations. An AI singleton could usher in a revolutionary new world free of war and conflict for all of human civilization or trigger a catastrophic new war between those with a functioning singleton entity against those attempting to develop one, along with myriad other risks, opportunities, and emergent consequences.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Machine Learning, Transhumanism, and War Studies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

56. Opaque and Pervasive: Microaggressions in Peace and Security

Author:
Karla Mastracchio
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:
This is the final report of a multi-year project that analyzes microaggressions in language used across peace and security communities of practice. Our intent is to understand their strategic impact in those professional settings. This project would not have been possible without the invaluable contributions across the WCAPS staff who graciously provided their time and professional expertise to further these discussions. We wish to also extend sincere thanks to each member of the WCAPS community and the wider peace and security field who participated and gave thoughtful feedback. Words matter and the linguistic and performative choices we make in our everyday lives impact not only our ability to maneuver in professional spaces but also affect the way we collectively communicate on a much larger scale.
Topic:
Security, Peace, and Microaggression
Political Geography:
Global Focus

57. Leadership in police work applied to critical contexts: An integrative review and scientific mapping using VOSviewer and Google Trends tools

Author:
Lucius Paulo de Carvalho, Ana Paula Grillo Rodrigues, and Marcello Beckert Zappellini
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The aim of this study is to identify cutting-edge studies on the phenomenon of leadership applied to police work, especially in critical contexts, based on an integrative literature review. The integrative review made it possible to survey publications on the subject in the Scopus, Web of Science, Ebsco Host, ScienceDirect, Core, and SciELO databases. Scientific mapping is complemented with the use of VOSviewer and Google Trends tools. The integrative review resulted in 15 studies that fit the research strategy, bringing different leadership approaches, such as instrumental, transformational, charismatic, consultative, ethical, authentic, military, destructive, and laissez-faire, through qualitative and/or quantitative studies. For bibliometric analysis using VOSviewer, the research corpus was expanded to 63 articles, admitting documents that studied leadership with firefighters, military personnel, and police officers. The analysis showed almost no co-authorship link between the 129 authors. The co-occurrence analysis of keywords reveals that leadership strongly links with law enforcement, police, management, crisis management, emergency management, and decision-making, establishing a close relationship between these concepts and a semantic map that underlies the field of study. The analysis of trends by Google Trends in the science category indicates the stability of interest in the topic of leadership in the world. However, the theme of police leadership produced results close to zero. The findings reveal that few studies address leadership in police organisations, and even fewer if critical, dangerous contexts are examined. The trends analysed indicate that worldwide scientific interest in the subject remains low and the theme must be further explored.
Topic:
Security, Leadership, Crisis Management, and Police
Political Geography:
Global Focus

58. Financing Women, Peace and Security: A Review of WPS National Action Plans from 2005 to 2022

Author:
Our Secure Future
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Our Secure Future
Abstract:
This publication is a policy brief accompanying an upcoming in-depth report on financing Women, Peace and Security (WPS) National Action Plans (NAP). This brief provides an overview of WPS NAPs, as well as the current state of funding for WPS NAP implementation, and a breakdown of this data by region. Stay tuned for the upcoming report to learn more about financing WPS NAPs. Key Findings: • As of early 2023, 31 countries out of 101 have estimated the amount of money required to implement WPS NAP activities. Available information does not illuminate whether these funds are secured. • More than 50 WPS NAPs out of 101 mention that a budget is needed to implement WPS activities, but do not include specification of funding. • The majority of WPS NAPs with budget estimates identify responsible parties for activity implementation, including ministries and/or government institutions, predominantly related to foreign affairs and gender equality.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Budget, Women, Finance, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

59. Governing the Ocean

Author:
Christophe Prazuck
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The sea is a far away place, so immense as to be abstract: you don't live there, you don't vote there, you don't own private property there. Understanding its importance, its link with our daily lives, understanding Fernand Braudel's phrase "the sea is wealth", is not the result of instinct, of familiarity with a land, it is always the result of an intellectual construction. It is perhaps tinged with fascination too, for poets and novelists, for walkers along the "Sentier des Douaniers" in a strong westerly breeze. Doubling as wonder, certainly, for the scientists who unlock the splendours of marine biology (the appearance of life in the primordial soup, the creation of an oxygenated atmosphere by unicellular algae, the key to nerve impulses discovered in the eye of a squid, etc.) or who examine the immeasurable power of the mechanisms and chemistry of the ocean, such as the meandering Gulf Stream, whose flow is greater than that of all the rivers on earth combined, or the quantity of heat retained in the first three metres of the ocean, which is greater than that contained in the entire atmosphere. But if the European Union, this maritime giant in the making, is taking an interest in ocean issues, and if the United Nations has made this decade that of the ocean sciences for sustainable development, it is because the ocean's state of health, our knowledge of it and the efficacy of our governance, will determine a part of our future. Indeed, the ocean is at the crossroads of a number of decisive pathways. Firstly, the path of climate change, since the ocean mitigates this as it absorbs 25% of the carbon dioxide[1] we emit and 90% of the excess heat generated by the greenhouse effect[2]. In the process, it is changing, warming, expanding, acidifying and 'deoxygenating': as its ecosystems are affected, it will probably lose some of its effectiveness as a climate shield. Secondly, the path of biodiversity which is under the threat of the combined effects of climate, marine pollution and over-exploitation, the disruption of which could affect the hundreds of millions of humans who depend on fish stocks, and lead to the disappearance forever of the biological treasures forged by evolution, which teach us about life and its development as well as our own physiology, our own pathologies and, sometimes, their remedies. Thirdly, the coastal pathway, where low-lying areas will be home to a billion human beings by 2050, while sea levels will rise, encroaching on coastal areas and amplifying the impact of extreme weather phenomena. Fourthly, the economic path which places the ocean at the centre of all our commercial and digital exchanges, globalisation being first and foremost a maritimisation of the world. Finally, the trajectory of power, which uses the seas as a stage for competition for global or regional hegemony.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Governance, and Oceans and Seas
Political Geography:
Global Focus

60. The Geopolitics of Energy are Changing: It's Essential to Update Policies

Author:
Robert F. Cekuta
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Energy security is a core element of a country’s national security policy. However, what constitutes energy security is changing dramatically, which means governments must review and update their policies. Moreover, these policy reviews and updates must be ongoing, given the continuing, multifaceted evolution taking place in the global energy sector. Changes are afoot and it is imperative that policymakers are aware of this reality and are open to taking the necessary steps to take advantage of them. Just as a country keeps reviewing defense and other threats to its place in the world, so too must it reappraise and adjust its policies and tactics to ensure its energy security. Regardless of whether a country is a net importer or exporter of energy, countries the world over are affected by today’s dynamic realities. Moreover, while trying to anticipate how future directions and new developments in the global energy picture will affect a particular country or region, policymakers need to think not only about how to adapt, but also about how a country might try to affect those changes so as to improve its well-being. At the same time, a government must consider how others—whether friends or current or potential enemies—might try to shape these geopolitical changes. Passivity or simply just continuing policies that have been in place over the past few decades will not serve countries well.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Geopolitics, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus