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1. CTC Sentinel: March 2025 Issue

Author:
Don Rassler, Yannick Veilleux-Lepage, Julika Enslin, Aaron Y. Zelin, and Jake Dulligan
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The March issue focuses in particular on the drone threat. In the feature article, Don Rassler and Yannick Veilleux-Lepage examine the evolution of terrorist drone usage and forecast its future trajectory in light of the tactical and technological innovations emerging from the Russo-Ukrainian War. They write that “the conflict has become a critical ‘innovation hub’ for drone warfare, accelerating advancements in the scale, speed, and range of drone operations. These developments are not only transforming the modern battlefield but also creating new opportunities for violent extremist organizations (VEOs) to enhance their operational capabilities.” They assess that “in particular, the war has normalized large-scale drone deployment, demonstrating the feasibility of launching coordinated drone swarms and phased attacks capable of overwhelming existing defenses” and note that the potential future pairing of high-speed First-Person View (FPV) drones with emerging technologies such as AI-assisted targeting “could significantly increase the precision and impact of future attacks.” In a similar vein, Jake Dulligan, Laura Freeman, Austin Phoenix, and Bradley Davis, in assessing the threat posed by commercial drones, write that the biggest concern “is that drone swarms could dramatically increase the impact of bad actor drone operations, be it kinetic strikes, ISR, or psychological warfare.” This month’s interview is with Dr. Christian Klos, the Director General of Public Security at Germany’s Federal Ministry of Interior and Community. He says that “when it comes to the external threat, I would agree with the assessment that ISIS-K is in Germany as well. What we observe from the intelligence side is that there are clear indications that the group intends to conduct attacks in Europe, and this can also include Germany and therefore we are very much aware of this threat, and we have seen also travel activities. So, it’s not just some minor indications.” Aaron Zelin assesses the new Syrian government’s efforts to counter the Islamic State, Hezbollah, and the captagon trade. He writes: “Unlike the Assad regime—which did little to fight the Islamic State, was closely aligned with Hezbollah, and produced captagon on an industrial scale—HTS in its guise as the new government of Syria is taking on these challenges assertively, and has a significant track record in doing so previously. Not only are these efforts a benefit to Syrian society and the security and stability of the country, but they also align with the interests of the United States and U.S. regional allies.” Alexandre Rodde and Justin Olmstead examine the evolution of vehicular ramming attacks and prevention efforts. They write that “when it comes to indicators and warnings of future attacks, the demonstration effect created by high-casualty vehicle-ramming attacks has in the past seemingly produced a surge in copycat attacks, which means the security agencies should be particularly vigilant given the recent uptick in high-profile attacks, including the New Orleans attack.”
Topic:
Intelligence, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Weapons, Drones, Islamic State, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Public Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

2. Sharks in the Muddy Waters: Terrorism and Mounting Global Disorder

Author:
Jahangir E. Arasli
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The international system is in increasing disarray, thanks partly to systemic and structural factors. The strategic competition between major powers and groups of states is growing sharply. One particular consequence of this process is an escalation in scale and scope of shooting wars and armed conflicts (e.g., in Europe and the Middle East) and other antagonisms on the edge of war (e.g., Taiwan, the South China Sea, and South Asia). Moreover, the existing geopolitical alignments are shifting oddly. Neo‑revisionism, expansionist foreign policies, and advanced territorial claims militarize international relations. With a reoccurrence of “utility of force,” the standing norms of international law are frying, and WMD proliferation regimes and arms control treaties are crumbling. Trade wars and deteriorating growth prospects are increasing strains and risks to the global economy and individual states. Political and ideological polarization in societies, institutional decay, inefficiency of elites, and the rise of populism affect states’ stability. The challenges of climate change and emerging technologies remain unanswered and unsettled.
Topic:
Terrorism, Geopolitics, Armed Conflict, and International System
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

3. Anti-terrorist cooperation as part of Poland’s geopolitical shift. “Operation Bridge” and the rise of a strategic partnership with the United States

Author:
Tomasz Piotr Kozłowski
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper discusses Poland’s involvement in “Operation Bridge,” which aimed to transport Jewish citizens from the Soviet Union to Israel between 1989 and 1992. The study is based on recently declassified documents from the former intelligence and counterintelligence services, the Foreign Ministry, and the Prime Minister’s Office, supplemented by accounts of policymakers, secret service officers, and militia involved in protecting Soviet Jews during transit operations. The author argues that this operation was not just a humanitarian effort but also had significant geopolitical implications. The newly elected non-communist government under Tadeusz Mazowiecki saw this as a critical move to establish stronger ties with the United States and Israel. The author also highlights how the cooperation between Poland and the United States in intelligence sharing, counterterrorism, and security operations paved the way for Poland’s strategic partnership with the United States and its eventual entry into NATO. The paper contributes significantly to our understanding of the role played by Poland in the post-Cold War era and sheds new light on the development of US–Polish relations.
Topic:
Security, Cold War, Terrorism, Geopolitics, and Counterintelligence
Political Geography:
Europe, Israel, Poland, and United States of America

4. La incidencia de la seguridad marítima en el golfo de Guinea sobre España

Author:
Francisco Delgado Urrutia
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Este artículo trata de demostrar que la situación de inseguridad en el golfo de Guinea constituye un problema de importancia para la seguridad de la Unión Europea, y más concretamente para la seguridad de España. En este sentido, se defiende que la forma en la que la Unión se ha aproximado a este problema de seguridad, no ha sido ni es el adecuado ya que, a pesar de reconocer la situación de inseguridad en esta región, no se han aplicado los mismos parámetros a la hora de evaluar la necesidad de implementar una operación militar en el Cuerno de África y en el golfo de Guinea. El resultado ha sido el mantenimiento de la operación “Atalanta” en una zona sin ataques piratas desde 2019 hasta finales del 2023, y la ausencia de una misión similar en el golfo de Guinea.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Piracy, European Union, Maritime, Cocaine, and Fisheries
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

5. CTC Sentinel: January 2024 Issue

Author:
Haroun Rahimi, Andrew Watkins, Gabriel Weimann, Alexander T. Pack, and Rachel Sulciner
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In the feature article, Haroun Rahimi and Andrew Watkins assess Taliban rule two and a half years into their renewed control of Afghanistan. They write: “Since their 2021 takeover, the Taliban have consolidated control over an impoverished and austere postwar Afghanistan. Since their victory, the Taliban’s emir has reasserted his status as a ‘supreme leader’ and oriented domestic policy in favor of highly conservative constituencies—which has revealed deep differences among their leadership of visions for the future of the Afghan state and society and how authority is divided among themselves. Yet, the Taliban have persistently prioritized the cohesion of their movement and governing apparatus. This trajectory has earned condemnation from Western states and prompted caution in the entire world’s engagement, which has in turn fueled Taliban motivations to reject foreign demands. After two and a half years of rule, the Taliban’s domestic agenda has become intertwined with their foreign relations impasse.” Gabriel Weimann, Alexander Pack, Rachel Sulciner, Joelle Scheinin, Gal Rapaport, and David Diaz write that “with the arrival and rapid adoption of sophisticated deep-learning models such as ChatGPT, there is growing concern that terrorists and violent extremists could use these tools to enhance their operations online and in the real world. Large language models have the potential to enable terrorists to learn, plan, and propagate their activities with greater efficiency, accuracy, and impact than ever before.” The authors offer “an early exploration of how these large language models could be exploited by terrorists or other violent extremists … to support their efforts in training, conducting operational planning, and developing propaganda.” Georgia Gilroy decodes al-Shabaab’s social media strategy, outlining the “controlled, adaptive, and coordinated approach the terrorist group takes to its online behavior.” She writes that the group’s “continued resilience, even in the face of mounting counterinsurgency efforts, is underpinned by its sophisticated communications architecture.” Christian Jokinen assesses whether left-wing terrorism is making a comeback in Germany in a case study of the violent left-wing Engel – Guntermann network. He writes that “the recent concerning trend among German left-wing extremists is toward greater violence and transnationalism.”
Topic:
Terrorism, Taliban, Violent Extremism, Artificial Intelligence, Leftist Politics, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, South America, Germany, and Global Focus

6. CTC Sentinel: June 2024 Issue

Author:
Paul Cruickshank, Petter Nesser, Wassim Nasr, Alexandre Rodde, and David Mcilhatton
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Beginning in late July, the world’s attention will focus on Paris for the 2024 Summer Olympic Games, followed by the Paralympics. In our cover article, Petter Nesser and Wassim Nasr describe a threat landscape facing the Games that is “diverse and multifaceted” with “both known and predictable terror threats and others that are less likely on paper but hold the potential for surprise.” “Jihadism,” they write, “remains the main non-state terror threat to Western Europe, France, and the Olympics, with Islamic State Khorasan posing a clear and present danger to the Games.” Richard Walton, former head of the London Metropolitan Police’s Counter Terrorism Command who led its counterterrorism efforts during the 2012 Olympics, offers insights into what security services are facing with the Paris Games. “This will be France’s biggest peacetime security policing challenge,” he surmises. “It will be France’s biggest test of their new intelligence infrastructure since they reviewed it post-2015 after the Paris attacks.” The stakes will be high throughout the entire country for the duration of the Olympics and Paralympics, he notes. “Any attack in France during the Games is an attack on the Games.” Alexandre Rodde, David Mcilhatton, John Cuddihy, and Rachel Monaghan describe the attractiveness of sports venues as terrorist targets as well as the associated public spaces that support these competitions, such as hotels, restaurants, and public transportation—what they refer to as the events’ “supply chain.” While security at venues is always robust during competitions, they warn that “what is left more exposed is the supply chain to these events. There are simply too many locations and businesses to provide protective security measures at scale … significant importance must be placed on engaging as many of those locations as possible, by providing training for businesses to help them understand the threats they might face, what to do if something does happen, and how to recover.” Finally, Yannick Veilleux-Lepage examines right-wing extremists’ use of 3D-printed firearms (3DPF). Utilizing an original dataset of 35 incidents worldwide, he investigates “the geographical and temporal spread of 3DPF use by RWE” and outlines several of the main motivations for their use. He finds “a troubling increase in the incidents involving 3DPF across multiple regions, indicating a spread beyond isolated communities into more mainstream adoption among right-wing extremist factions” with the number of cases rising from just one incident in 2017 to 11 in 2023. This data-driven article will serve as an important foundational piece of work upon which other researchers and practitioners can build so that the CT community can better track the evolution of this important and evolving threat area.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Olympics, Supply Chains, and Salafi-Jihadism
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and France

7. CTC Sentinel: July/August 2024 Issue

Author:
Devorah Margolin, Gina Vale, Kristina Hummel, Samuel Bowles, and Noah Tucker
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Ten years ago, in August 2014, the Islamic State began its genocidal campaign against the Yazidi community. In our cover article, Devorah Margolin and Gina Vale evaluate how the group’s gendered violence has manifested during and after its caliphate years. “Even without its caliphate,” they write, “the Islamic State’s gendered violence continues, as its supporters and ideology remain. Arguably, the lack of timely and appropriate responses has perpetuated this violence.” Our interview this month is with William Braniff, director of the Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships at the Department of Homeland Security. In it, he describes his office’s efforts to utilize a public health-informed approach to preventing targeted violence and terrorism. Edward Lemon and Noah Tucker examine Central Asians’ prominent role in recent global terror plots and attacks. They argue that analysis should focus more on “the factors that led to mobilization to Syria and Iraq a decade ago and that have been exacerbated in recent years, especially in Tajikistan, including crackdowns on religion, corrupt ineffective governance, high levels of migration, and well-established terror networks that are holdovers from the peak of the Islamic State” as a way to understand this evolving threat area. When news reports appeared earlier this summer suggesting that the leader of the Islamic State in Somalia, Abdulqadir Mumin, may have quietly become the “worldwide leader” of the Islamic State last year and may have been killed in a recent U.S. airstrike, the news created far more questions than answers. Austin Doctor and Gina Ligon take a nuanced look at what the developments—if true—could mean for the group. Jessica Davis provides analysis of the Islamic State’s post-caliphate financial strategies. “The future of the Islamic State’s financial infrastructure,” she writes, “is networked, resilient, and adaptive.” This reality, she warns, portends “a grim future for efforts to combat the group’s international presence.” Finally, in June, the U.S. State Department designated the Nordic Resistance Movement, the largest neo-Nazi group in Sweden, as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist, only the second white nationalist organization on its terrorist list. Peter Smith outlines the development of the group and considers what the designation could mean for its future.
Topic:
Genocide, Migration, Terrorism, Women, Islamic State, Gender Based Violence, Public Health, Yazidis, and Neo-Nazis
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Middle East, Tajikistan, North America, Sweden, and United States of America

8. CTC Sentinel: May 2024 Issue

Author:
Amira Jadoon, Abdul Sayed, Lucas Webber, Riccardo Valle, and Paul Cruickshank
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In the wake of Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) attack on March 22 in Moscow and a wave of thwarted plots by the group in Europe, there is growing concern about the international terror threat the network poses. In the feature article, Amira Jadoon, Abdul Sayed, Lucas Webber, and Riccardo Valle assess that “ISK’s nearly decade-long presence in its traditional strongholds of Afghanistan and Pakistan, coupled with its expanding reach and appeal among Central Asian populations and its prioritization of inspiring and coordinating transnational attacks as part of its growth strategy, underscores the multifaceted and evolving nature of the threat posed by this resilient terrorist organization … Despite ISK’s recent decline in attacks in Afghanistan, the group retains the determination and capacity to conduct destabilizing high-profile attacks in multiple countries. The group remains resilient, but more worryingly, it has learned to adapt its strategy and tactics to fit evolving dynamics, and exploit local, regional, and global grievances and conflicts.” Our interview is with Ahmad Zia Saraj who served as the General Director of the National Directorate of Security (NDS) of Afghanistan between September 2019 until the fall of Kabul on August 15, 2021. He recounts this turbulent period and the lessons learned. He warns that by using end-to-end-encryption, ISK can recruit, exchange information swiftly, plan, and execute international attacks. “Encrypted messaging apps have helped terrorists speed up operations, enhance operational security, save time, save travel costs, and to plan and execute and even monitor attacks in real time,” he says. “The NDS noticed that a newly recruited fighter does not need to physically attend a training camp to learn how to construct a bomb or how to target the enemy. All this can be done via a smart phone with less risk of exposure. Advancing technology has made it possible for someone to be trained in terrorist tactics in any part of the world, regardless of borders or travel restrictions. A terrorist in Afghanistan or Iraq can easily train another one in any part of the world.” Finally, Pete Simi, Gina Ligon, Seamus Hughes, and Natalie Standridge quantify the rising threats to public officials in the United States by reviewing a decade of federal data. They write that: “A review of federal charges for the past decade highlights that the number of threats to public officials is growing. While 2013-2016 had an average of 38 federal charges per year, that number sharply increased to an average of 62 charges per year between 2017-2022. Across the time series, ideologically motivated threats, on average, accounted for almost half of the cases, and the portion steadily increased year over year. A preliminary review of cases from 2023 and 2024 shows that the number of federal prosecutions is on pace to hit new record highs. The rising threat level may produce significant consequences for the U.S. democratic system of governance.”
Topic:
Science and Technology, Terrorism, Islamic State, Encryption, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Central Asia, North America, and United States of America

9. Doing it again. Assessing the features and implications of terrorism recidivism in the context of jihadi attacks in Europe

Author:
Daniela Pisoiu
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This article focuses on the issue of terrorism recidivism as it relates specifically to terrorist attacks. Based on the analysis of a dataset comprising information on the jihadi attacks and their perpetrators in Europe between 2014 and 2022, it introduces the following findings: terrorism recidivists are disproportionately more likely to carry out attacks in groups with other “experienced” terrorists; their attacks have a significantly higher impact in terms of casualties; the rate of mental health is remarkably low; and they seem to be able to evade authorities in a much higher percentage of cases than other perpetrators without a terrorism-related criminal record. Overall, these suggest that terrorism recidivist perpetrators operate more “professionally” than the rest of the terrorist perpetrators, making their attacks more lethal and harder to prevent.
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Database, and Criminal Recidivism
Political Geography:
Europe

10. The violent legacy of fascism: Neofascist political violence in Italy, 1969–88

Author:
Stefano Costalli, Daniele Guariso, Patricia Justino, and Andrea Ruggeri
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We still have limited knowledge about the long-term effects of fascism on European democracies. European countries experienced cycles of violence between the 1960s and 1980s. Can such violence be explained by legacies of mobilization during fascism? We study whether and how the Italian fascist experience of the 1920s affected political violence during the 1970s and 1980s. We created an original dataset of conflictual events at a subnational level in Italy. Using zero-inflated negative binomial regressions, we find that local membership of the fascist party in 1922—before the institutionalization of the fascist regime—predicts neofascist political violence at the provincial level more than 40 years later. New windows of opportunity facilitate the resurfacing of local fascist legacies: in the months when a new Minister of Interior is appointed, we observe higher levels of neofascist violence in provinces where the early presence of the fascist party was stronger.
Topic:
Terrorism, History, Fascism, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy