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52. The 2024 Assessment of Violent Extremism in Albania
- Author:
- Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
- Abstract:
- The 2024 national assessment of violent extremism drivers, forms and threats presents a crucial update in Albania’s fight against violent extremism, enriched by an in-depth exploration of perceptions of political extremism and other emerging threats. Building on this expanded scope, the report offers actionable insights and recommendations to enhance Albania’s preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) measures. The assessment seeks to inform and complement the efforts of the Albanian government and P/CVE stakeholders, to enhance resilience against the broad spectrum of violent extremism and ensure a proactive and adaptable response to protect Albanian society and its democratic values. As Albania nears a decade of implementing P/CVE strategies, it is evident that considerable progress has been made in tackling religious extremism, yet the evolving nature of violent extremism presents continuous challenges. Delving into the main forms and drivers of violent extremism, this report has been structured into three main chapters which analyze citizens’ perceptions through the lens of the socio-economic, political and cultural drivers used in previous national assessments, as well as a series of new questions aimed at exploring emerging threats.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, Violent Extremism, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Balkans, and Albania
53. Prospects for EU-Türkiye Foreign Policy Cooperation at a Time of Geopolitical Turbulence
- Author:
- Ian Lesser, Kadri Tastan, Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, and Paul T. Levin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- Over more than six decades, the relationship between Türkiye and the EU has undergone a profound transformation. Just 20 years ago, Türkiye had real aspirations to join the EU. Today, that prospect is a distant memory, and political relations between the two parties are at an all-time low. Despite the prevailing challenges and areas of divergent interests, Türkiye-EU relations continue to exert a significant influence on domestic and foreign policies across much of Europe, particularly with regard to trade, border management, and migration. While the United States may view ties with Türkiye as discretionary at times, for both Türkiye and the EU, engagement remains unavoidable. Furthermore, against a backdrop of geopolitical turmoil and regional instability, the imperative for robust dialogue and collaboration between the EU and Türkiye has never been more pressing. With Türkiye‘s accession process stalled and geopolitical tensions on the rise, the need to reinvigorate and strengthen diplomatic ties has become increasingly evident. From the enduring conflicts in Syria and Iraq to the evolving dynamics surrounding Russia‘s aggression towards Ukraine, the prevailing geopolitical context necessitates a coordinated approach between the two parties. This political report examines the potential for collaboration between Türkiye and the EU, defining the essential preconditions for such cooperation and elucidating its mutual benefits. It also assesses the obstacles that stand in the way of such cooperation and proposes a framework for foreign policy dialogue between Türkiye and the EU, incorporating the views of Türkiye, the EU, and the United States.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
54. Next-Generation Perspectives on Taiwan: Insights from the 2024 Taiwan-US Policy Program
- Author:
- Bonnie S. Glaser, Joshua Stone, Alicja Bachulska, Viking Bohman, and Francesca Ghiretti
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- The papers in this compendium were written by 11 members of the 2024 Taiwan-US Policy Program (TUPP) delegation: Alicja Bachulska, Viking Bohman, Francesca Ghiretti, Heather Hwalek, Leland Lazarus, Lauren Racusin, Friso Stevens, Joshua Stone, Brian Volsky, Theresa Winter, Adrienne Wu. Transatlantic attention to Taiwan has surged in recent years for several reasons. First, Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has led to increased concern in the United States and Europe that Beijing’s growing military capabilities and declining confidence in its ability to achieve peaceful reunification will soon lead the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to attempt a takeover of Taiwan by force. The cost of such a war would carry a price tag of around $10 trillion, equal to about 10% of global GDP, according to Bloomberg Economics, far higher than the economic impact of the 2008 global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. The devastating impact of a Taiwan Strait conflict has provided a wake-up call for leaders in Europe who now echo the Biden administration’s warnings to PRC leader Xi Jinping to refrain from using violence to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. In addition, Taiwan is now a regular agenda item in the US-EU Consultations on the Indo-Pacific and the US-EU Dialogue on China. Second, intensifying US-China strategic competition has increasingly focused on technology with chips at the center. Taiwan produces more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors and more than 90% of the most advanced ones. A single company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC), manufactures most of those chips. Recognition of Taiwan’s dominant role in the semiconductor supply chain has provided another reason to bolster deterrence. It has also sparked interest in “friendshoring” and “onshoring” semiconductor manufacturing. TSMC plans to start production at its first fab in Arizona in 2025 and will break ground on another in Dresden at the end of 2024 with an estimated completion date of 2027. Recognizing the rising geopolitical risks and their own strategic dependencies, the United States and the EU have made building resilient supply chains a priority, especially in semiconductors. In its 2021 Indo-Pacific Strategy, Brussels explicitly committed the EU to engaging with Taiwan in creating resilient supply chains. Third, rising concern in the United States and Europe about election interference and disinformation have sparked interest in learning from Taiwan’s experience in combatting such threats. In the run-up to the January 13, 2024, presidential and legislative elections, PRC attempts to interfere in Taiwan’s politics surged to unprecedented levels through economic coercion, direct political meddling, displays of military force, and manipulation of social media. As the United States and many European countries prepare for their own national elections this year, they are engaging with experts from Taiwan to better understand PRC tactics and the tools that Taiwan successfully employed to counter PRC interference. Fourth, the United States and Europe increasingly recognize that Taiwan’s vibrant and successful democracy is under threat from an authoritarian regime. Taiwan has received high marks for protecting political rights and holding free and fair elections. Taiwan’s democratic achievements are even more impressive when set against the backdrop of a deterioration in freedom worldwide. Like other industrialized democracies, Taiwan faces a multitude of challenges that are especially difficult to address in the face of PRC efforts that prevent Taiwan’s government and its people from interacting with the world. Taiwan’s exclusion from international organizations also hampers the world’s ability to develop effective solutions to myriad problems. The Taiwan-US Policy Program (TUPP) was launched in 2017 to encourage young professionals from the United States to include Taiwan in their research and help Taipei expand its global networks. In 2022, TUPP was expanded to include young professionals from Europe in support of GMF’s mission of promoting transatlantic cooperation. TUPP enables future leaders to acquire a deeper understanding of Taiwan and its relations with the United States through meetings with officials and experts in Washington, DC, followed by a visit to Taiwan to gain first-hand exposure to its politics, culture, and history. Experiencing Taiwan influences how these future leaders approach their work and their writing. It impacts their worldview by imbuing them with an appreciation for Taiwan’s history and commitment to the principles of democracy and human rights that undergird the existing international order. It also reinforces the importance of maintaining robust bilateral relations and strengthening international support for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The 2024 TUPP cohort traveled to Taiwan in February for an intense week of meetings and activities. Each participant gained insights into Taiwan and its role in their respective fields. This year’s delegation comprised five Americans and five Europeans. Over time, TUPP seeks to create a body of global experts with firsthand knowledge of Taiwan who support sustaining and expanding its international ties. I am grateful to the Henry Luce Foundation, the Global Taiwan Institute, and the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy for their support of this goal. The contributions here, written by the entire 2024 TUPP delegation, underscore the importance of deeper study and understanding of Taiwan. I sincerely hope that they stimulate continued transatlantic and global interest in Taiwan and its future.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, Poland, Germany, Latin America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
55. Ukraine’s Long Path toward NATO
- Author:
- Steven Pifer
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- For some 20 years after regaining its independence in 1991, Ukraine wavered in how far to take its relationship with NATO. That changed following Russia’s illegal seizure of Crimea and engagement in fighting in Donbas in 2014. Ukraine’s leaders and people increasingly came to view the alliance as the best answer for their country’s security needs. A growing number of NATO allies support Ukraine’s membership as important for Europe’s security and are ready to extend Kyiv an invitation to join. Other allies, however, are reluctant to take that step now, particularly while Ukraine remains at war with Russia. Division within NATO over this issue broke into the open in the run-up to the alliance’s July 2023 summit in Vilnius. Allies seemed determined to avoid a repeat at the July 2024 summit in Washington. That summit described Ukraine’s path to membership as “irreversible,” and NATO decisions focused on providing Kyiv the military wherewithal to defend itself against Russia’s continuing assaults. The “when” of Ukraine’s membership remains a question for the future.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and North America
56. NATO Bolsters Its Eastern Flank
- Author:
- William Courtney
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- The 75th anniversary summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), celebrated in July in Washington, dwelt on bolstering its eastern flank and supporting Ukraine. The eastern flank has long been at the center of the alliance’s exertions. NATO emerged in 1949 in great part because of the 1948 Berlin crisis and the communist takeover of Czechoslovakia. Chief among the alliance’s original purposes was deterring Soviet aggression. Reinvigorated in large part because of Russian aggression against Ukraine, NATO is stronger now than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Modern Russia has never been more repressive at home, or more aggressive abroad, than now. As long as Russia uses force to pursue imperial, revanchist goals, ensuring allied security against its threats may require greater exertions and acceptance of higher risks.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
57. How the EU can – and should – enhance its security and global competitiveness
- Author:
- Stefania Benaglia, Steven Blockmans, Michael Emerson, Tinatin Akhvlediani, Ceren Ergenc, and Fanny Sauvignon
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- To achieve the objectives of security and competitiveness the EU will absolutely need to prioritise its enlargement policy, defence strategy and global partnerships over the coming years to 2030 and beyond. To make the EU fit for 30+ members, it will have to start by reforming its enlargement methodology towards a ‘staged accession’ procedure and move towards more qualified majority voting, alongside adapting its budget to accommodate new members. Accession negotiations will need to have ironclad security commitments and the EU should assist candidates in shoring up their own defences, as well as beefing up its own Member States’ military capacities. The EU also has no choice but to become a security provider for the entire continent. To strengthen its overall global competitiveness, the EU should boost Europe’s defence industry, ramp up the production of much-needed capabilities, tackle procurement issues and harmonise technical and operational standards. Collaboration with regional partners through the Global Gateway is also important but the EU shouldn’t position itself as an exclusive alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. It must also actively engage all parties in the Middle East peace process to counterbalance China’s influence and (re)assert itself as a key regional player. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) will test the EU’s ability to maintain its global relevance and uphold its values.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, European Union, Competition, and Enlargement
- Political Geography:
- Europe
58. The Berlin Pulse 2024/2025 (full issue)
- Author:
- Hanno Pevkur, Stephanie Zonszein, Majed Al-Ansari, Halyna Yanchenko, and Boris Pistorius
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Körber-Stiftung
- Abstract:
- Welcome to the eight’s edition of The Berlin Pulse! As every year, we compare international expectations of Germany with public opinion in Germany. But this year’s edition is special, as it comes off the press with one part of our representative survey conducted right after the polls have closed in the United States and the German coalition collapsed. Thanks to our editors Julia Ganter and Jonathan Lehrer, this issue underlines that Germany must decide what image it wants to project and what international expectations it wants to meet. Bangladeshi analyst Shafqat Munir and Russian opposition politician Andrei Pivovarov want Germany to live up to its moral aspirations and support the revival of democratic values in their countries. Israeli journalist Mairav Zonszein argues that precisely Germany’s reputation as a defender of democratic norms complicates its arms support to Israel, calling on Berlin to ensure its weapons are not used in human rights violations. Meanwhile, Ukrainian politican Halyna Yanchenko urges Germany to supply more arms to help end Russia’s illegal war of aggression. These expectations illustrate that Germany’s international standing as a partner in upholding international law, human rights and democracy is currently at stake. Berlin faces a complex balancing act, striving to avoid perceptions of selectively applying international law. Estonia’s Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur argues that half-hearted actions will not suffice – or as he puts it, ʻDo we want Ukraine to survive, or do we want it to win?ʼ The German population has a strong opinion on many of these issues. While 57 per cent of German respondents still want Berlin to support Ukraine militarily only 25 per cent want military support for Israel. Despite these dilemmas, it is encouraging that 46 per cent of German respondents want their country to be more engaged on international crises. It is the highest level since we started surveying this in 2017 and it shows that, after three years of war in Ukraine and a year of war in the Middle East, Germans want change and want to see Germany driving change. Thanks to our partner, the Pew Research Center, we know that Germans and Americans have trusted each other to make a change in international politics over the past four years. But our new figures, conducted after the US election, show that this partnership may be threatened: 79 per cent of Germans think President Donald Trump will damage transatlantic relations. But only 35 per cent of Germans think that Germany should step in to lead the West. It is time to decide, Germany. What kind of international player do we want to be, in which areas do we want to go all in? The following pages can help us make difficult decisions in difficult times.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Taliban, Polls, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, India, Germany, and United States of America
59. El futuro de la OTAN en su 75 aniversario
- Author:
- Gustavo Palomares
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- El 75 aniversario de la OTAN coincide con su mayor transformación a consecuencia del momento que atraviesa Europa ante el conflicto de Ucrania, los nuevos riesgos y amenazas, o las próximas elecciones en EEUU. El nuevo concepto estratégico aprobado en la Cumbre de Madrid en 2022 supone una ampliación de objetivos y escenarios, que se extienden a Oriente Medio, Mediterráneo, Sahel o el Sur Global. La Fundación Alternativas y la Secretaría General de Política de Defensa del Ministerio de Defensa de España presentaron el informe “El futuro de la OTAN en su 75 aniversario. Guerra en Europa y escenario internacional en transformación”. Este documento pone de manifiesto la necesidad de reaccionar a la agresión rusa en Ucrania fortaleciendo los mecanismos de coordinación e inter-operabilidad entre la Alianza y los socios de la UE desde una perspectiva de complementariedad.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
60. Perspectives for Italy-Germany Energy Cooperation amid Energy Security and Transition
- Author:
- Alessio Sangiorgio and Pier Paolo Raimondi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Italy and Germany share important similarities in their energy sectors, facing multiple challenges, first and foremost the impact of the energy crisis and its effect on transition efforts. Similarly, changing political contexts at the national and European levels creates new obstacles for climate ambitions, raising the need for bilateral dialogue and common solutions. The two countries’ economies are also closely interconnected, increasing the need for joint action on industrial decarbonisation and cross-border interconnections. A coordinated response in tackling the challenges of energy security, competitiveness and sustainability is needed and may yield positive results for both countries and the European Union.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, and Italy