2221. Fiscal Policy in the European Monetary Union
- Author:
- Betty C. Daniel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- A country entering the EMU surrenders its monetary policy, and its debt becomes denominated in terms of a currency over which it has no direct control. A countryís promise to uphold the Öscal limits in the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact is implicitly a promise not to allow its Öscal stance to deteriorate to a position in which it places pressure on the central bank to forgo its price level target to Önance Öscal deÖcits. Violation of these limits has raised questions about potential Öscal encroachment on the monetary authorityís freedom to determine the price level. We specify a simple model of Öscal policy in which the Öscal authority faces an upper bound on the size of its primary surplus. Policy is determined by a Öscal rule, speciÖed as an error correction model, in which the primary surplus responds to debt and a target variable. We show that for the monetary authority to have the freedom to control price, the primary surplus must respond strongly enough to lagged debt. Using panel techniques that allow for unit roots and for heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence across countries, we estimate the coe¢ cients of the error correction model for the primary surplus in a panel of ten EMU countries over the period 1970-2006. The group mean estimate for the coe¢ cient on lagged debt is consistent with the hypothesis that the monetary authority can control the price level in the EMU, independent of Öscal ináuence.
- Topic:
- European Union, Fiscal Policy, and European Monetary Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe