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772. A Taiwan crisis is a China crisis
- Author:
- Luke Patey
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The European Union needs a China contingency. Government and corporate decision-makers may be preparing for a possible Chinese military attack on Taiwan, but they must also focus on how a Taiwan crisis will impact China and, consequently, the EU’s economic security. Largely on account of Taiwan’s prominent position in the global semiconductor industry, a Chinese attack on the island will inflict trillions of dollars in costs on the global economy. But a Taiwan crisis also threatens to disrupt China-centered production and supply chains for green technologies, such as electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines, as well as create unprecedented geopolitical risk for European companies in China.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, and Economic Security
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Taiwan, and Asia
773. Power moves east: Poland’s rise as a strategic European player
- Author:
- Izabela Surwillo and Veronika Slakaityte
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Since Russia’s war in Ukraine, Europe’s geopolitical centre has shifted eastward. Poland’s economic growth, regional leadership and defence role have cemented its position as a major force in the continent’s power structure.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Leadership, Economic Growth, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Poland
774. Protecting EU's critical infrastructure - The fight intensifies in the cyber realm
- Author:
- Veronika Slakaityte and Izabela Surwillo
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The geopolitical tensions in Europe have amplified hybrid warfare, with state and non-state actors increasingly targeting critical infrastructure (CI) through military and non-military tactics. Cyberattacks typically target the digital systems of CI, while hybrid warfare also includes tactics like disinformation and electronic jamming, indirectly undermining trust and disrupting operations. The EU’s fragmented approach to CI protection is marked by a lack of coherent national and cross-border cybersecurity strategies. There is no clear classification system for its CI sectors, a lack of standardisation in its threat responses, and no comprehensive inventory of critical assents—all of which leave Europe vulnerable to cyberattacks. As digitalisation and interconnectedness of CI grows, so does the risk of cascading disruptions across borders. Cybersecurity is therefore a crucial pillar of modern defence: without addressing its vulnerabilities, the stability of Europe’s overall security framework is at risk.
- Topic:
- European Union, Cybersecurity, Hybrid Warfare, Digitalization, and Critical Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Europe
775. Niger coup forces a rethink of EU and US security strategies
- Author:
- Andrew Lebovich
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- For a decade the European Union (EU) and the United States saw Niger as their most valuable and cooperative partner in the Sahel, but the military coup that struck Niger in 2023 changed that. As European states rethink their options in the Sahel, an understanding of what went wrong in Niger can shed light on how to rethink security assistance in the Sahel and in coastal West Africa. ‘Last man standing, last chance’ is how a European diplomat described Niger’s regional status less than two weeks before the coup that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum on 26 July 2023. The French departure from Mali in late 2022 and Burkina Faso in 2023, along with increasing pressure on United Nations forces and the European civilian and security training missions EU Training Mission (EUTM) and EU Capacity Assistance Programme (EUCAP) in Mali, left Niger as the last stronghold for the EU and international community to maintain regional counterterrorism operations and influence with a willing partner. This shift raised concerns that the relatively better security situation in Niger, compared to its central Sahelian neighbours, was at risk should Niger falter in its security stance and commitments and, since the coup, many of the worst fears of European and American actors have come true. Attacks have increased, with some of them disturbingly close to Niger’s capital Niamey. The Conseil National pour la Sauvegarde de la Patrie (CNSP), the military junta which assumed control after the coup, swiftly cut ties with the country’s prior security partnerships, opting for a different direction that includes Russian trainers, equipment and possibly other security assistance, although there is no evidence that Russia had a hand in the coup itself. Thus far this presence is significantly smaller than in Mali, where Russian-financed mercenaries operate in significant numbers. Most strikingly, French soldiers were ordered to leave the country within weeks of the coup. Following an unsuccessful meeting between a high-level American delegation and Nigérien junta leaders in March 2024, American forces were also pushed out, with their withdrawal to be completed by September 2024.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, European Union, and Coup
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Sahel, and Niger
776. Bridging North-South disarmament divides
- Author:
- Maria-Louise Clausen and Trine Rosengren Pejstrup
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- This brief focuses on selected policy areas where the Global South is seeking increased influence on the disarmament agenda and where Denmark might play a role in bridging the divide between North and South. The UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned of a looming fracture in the global governance system as relationships between great powers are being recalibrated, and regional blocs are more forcefully asserting distinct visions for peace and security. The Russian war on Ukraine has highlighted the volatility of the global security environment, reflecting both a break from and a continuation of deteriorating conditions for the multilateral framework in disarmament and arms control. These mechanisms are crucial for international peace and security. But the Ukraine conflict, coupled with increased global military spending and the emergence of new military technologies, is increasingly challenging the credibility of the UN peace and security architecture.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Disarmament, Multilateralism, UN Security Council, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Denmark
777. Whaling politics: two worlds that never meet
- Author:
- Minori Takahashi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The arrest and detention of environmental activist Paul Watson in Greenland drew renewed attention to Japan’s whaling, specifically the commercial whaling that resumed in July 2019. Japan stopped commercial whaling of large whales in the Antarctic in 1986-87 and coastal whaling by March 1988, following decisions in the International Whaling Commission (IWC). With the stated aim of gaining sufficient knowledge to re-start commercial whaling, Japan conducted research whaling for ecological and resource data, as IWC regulations permit member states to do. In 2010, Watson’s group physically interfered with a ship contributing to Japan’s Whale Research Program near Antarctica, leading Japan to issue a red notice against him through Interpol. 14 years later, in response to Japan’s request, Danish authorities in Greenland, constitutionally linked to Denmark but with extensive autonomy, detained Watson during a refuelling stop. The arrest prompted protests in Europe and an online petition with over 720,000 signatures for his release. Joining the cause are renowned actors, acclaimed filmmakers and even parliamentarians and city mayors. Watson’s legal team claimed the incident was political and that Japan was exploiting Greenland. Faced with intense opposition from otherwise friendly nations, why does Japan continue to engage in whaling?
- Topic:
- Environment, Politics, European Union, Conservation, and Whaling
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Europe, and Asia