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1. Kenya: Women and Lawyers Demonstrate Nationwide

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
From 13 January to 16 February 2024, ACLED records 80 political violence events and 52 reported fatalities in Kenya. Most events took place in Samburu county, which witnessed increased violence involving bandits who loot valuables, including cattle. Turkana county had the highest number of reported fatalities due to civilian targeting by unidentified gunmen during raiding. The most common event type was riots, with 35 recorded events, followed by violence against civilians, with 26 events.
Topic:
Political Violence, Women, Protests, Demonstrations, and Lawyers
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Horn of Africa

2. Fighting deepens around El Fasher in Sudan, al-Shabaab loses territory in Somalia, and police crack down on tax-related protests in Kenya

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
A new major battle broke out in the North Darfur city of El Fasher, which has been surrounded since April by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). El Fasher is the only capital city in Darfur that is still controlled by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The SAF, backed by its allies, managed to conduct multiple offensive maneuvers on RSF strongholds in rural territories in North Darfur. During the clashes, the SAF claimed to have inflicted several casualties on the RSF, including killing the local operation commander. ACLED records at least 700 reported fatalities in connection with fighting around the city since the RSF began the attack on El Fasher on 10 April; around half of them — 320 — were recorded during the reporting period, 25 May to 21 June. Additionally, the violence has heavily hit health care facilities in North Darfur, causing them to go out of service and aggravating an already dire humanitarian situation. According to the Sudan Doctors’ Union, at least 4,000 people may have died from violence, diseases, and starvation in El Fasher alone.
Topic:
Civil War, Protests, Tax Systems, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Sudan

3. The APRM as a tool for preventing and mitigating domestic protests

Author:
Nkanyiso Goodnews Simelane
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
In the past five years, Africa has experienced increasingly more complex conflicts, requiring multi-dimensional approaches to enhance and consolidate the responses of states, Regional Economic Communities and Mechanisms (RECs/Ms), and the African Union (AU). Peace and security issues often interlock with those of governance, and in many respects, governance issues are the root causes of most threats to peace and security. One of the peace and security areas that have become increasingly more complex for states to deal with internally is local and national protest. Protests have become more frequent on the African continent.1 While there are various causes attributed to the increase in protest action, most of them emanate from governance shortfalls in Africa. Protests are an important avenue for citizens to relay domestic grievances, but they can pose a security threat when these issues go unaddressed for prolonged periods. Among other things, tools to detect and, therefore, respond timeously to emerging conflicts are necessary for countries to address governance issues to prevent the frequency and intensity of protests. In this regard, the AU has recognised the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) as an early warning tool for conflict prevention in the context of its harmony and synergy with the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and the African Governance Architecture (AGA).2 This emphasises the nexus between governance and peace and security. The Peace and Security Council (PSC) further acknowledges the importance of the APRM as an effective mechanism for promoting conflict prevention by contributing to addressing structural root causes of conflicts that relate to governance.3 This article aims to assess the APRM Country Review Reports (CRRs) as early warning tools for identifying, preventing, mitigating, and addressing governance issues that cause, and arise from, domestic protests. Therefore, it looks at three APRM CRRs produced from 2018 to identify early warnings which can be linked to protests. Moreover, it will analyse the extent to which these early warnings were used in the domestic context of the member countries reviewed during this period, with a view to preventing or responding to local and national protests.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Protests, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa

4. Characteristics and efficacy of I4P in Southern Africa

Author:
Oita Etyang and Tunji Namaiko
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Compared to other regions, Southern Africa has been considered peaceful for a period of time. The relative peace experienced in the region has partly been attributed to the late decolonisation experience and the existence of strong regional institutions, such as the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), that have midwifed and quelled potential threats to peace and security. Certainly, SADC has established and operationalised peace and security organs that strategically intervene in cases of destabilisation in the region,1 including militarily in some countries. For instance, military forces under the ambit of SADC were deployed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Lesotho. More recently, forces were deployed by the region to quell the insurgency in Cabo Delgado in Mozambique.2 SADC has also intervened in member states to assuage political crises, as recently experienced in Eswatini where the SADC Troika was seized with this matter. Suffice it to mention that while the SADC intervention in Eswatini prevented the situation from escalating further, the root causes of political tensions remain salient. Despite the efforts outlined above, the emergence of conflict, violent demonstrations and riots experienced in some countries in this region, including Zimbabwe (2013, 2018), Zambia (2016), Eswatini (2021) and Madagascar (2020/2022), coupled with the evolving peace and security threats, such as armed insurgency, governance deficit, economic downturn, vagaries of climate change and the lack of economic development, have triggered an academic and policy appetite on the nature and efficacy of Infrastructure for Peace (I4P) in the region. Secondly, discussions on the subject area have predominantly focused on security apparatus, with little attention to other non-state-centric I4P. This article, therefore, interrogates the status of I4P within the Southern African region. Specifically, it unpacks their characteristics and roles in peace building, conflict prevention, conflict management, community cohesion and integration. The article goes further to highlight the challenges that I4P face in executing their respective mandates.
Topic:
Conflict, Protests, Destabilization, Peacebuilding, and Infrastructure for Peace (I4P)
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

5. #EndSARS Protest: Re-thinking Nigerian Youth and Government Policies

Author:
Chinyere Stella Okunna
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:
If any countries in the world should take youths and youth development seriously, Nigeria should be high on the list of such countries – Nigeria has one of the largest youth populations in the world, with the youth making up almost 34% (33.65%) of the country’s huge population of more than 200 million people. One fundamental way of demonstrating this seriousness is through the enactment and serious implementation of meaningful and effective youth policies, as well as the creation of an enabling environment for youth development. From virtually every indication, government has failed abysmally over the years in recent times to enthrone a liveable society as a conducive environment for effectively implementing its well-crafted youth policies and programmes, thus wreaking havoc on youth development. For how long should this terrible scenario continue? Something definitely needs to be done by the government, by the youth themselves, by non-governmental bodies made up of well-meaning Nigerians, and by the international community (if need be) – and the time to do this ‘something’ about this situation is NOW
Topic:
Education, Youth, Protests, Police, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

6. Lessons from the #EndSARS Movement in Nigeria

Author:
Olajumoke (Jumo) Ayandele
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 3 October 2020, in Nigeria, operatives of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) allegedly shot a young man at Wetland Hotel in Ughelli, injuring him. This incident was filmed and went viral, sparking an outcry on social media against SARS using the hashtag #EndSARS. By 8 October, demonstrations associated with this hashtag had begun to increase in size and number throughout Nigeria, peaking at 26 demonstration events on 13 October (see figure below). On 20 October, Nigerian military forces fired live ammunition at #EndSARS demonstrators in Lagos who had sat down in the road to peacefully protest against police brutality, reportedly killing at least 15. Young Nigerians are still reeling from the shock and after effects of the government’s heavy-handed response. Military officials have rejected claims that they killed unarmed protesters, alleging that soldiers had only fired blank bullets (BBC, 15 November 2020). The reaction has widened the distrust between young Nigerians and the government. This analysis identifies three lessons from the #EndSARS movement and highlights what the government’s response means for Nigeria’s fragile political stability and security.
Topic:
Security, Social Movement, Political stability, Protests, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

7. Disaster-Appropriate Policing in South Africa: Protests and State Violence in the COVID-19 Era

Author:
Steven Rebello, Jesse Copelyn, Sinqobile Makhathini, and Boikanyo Moloto
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
Militarisation refers to a process where societies (states, institutions, and citizens) prioritise, organise, prepare for and respond to threats or crises with military action or violence. This policy brief highlights how many countries across the world, including South Africa, adopted a militarised response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In South Africa, this militarised response has been noted by the deployment of the SANDF to assist with the enforcement of COVID-19 regulations as well as through the noticeable increase in the use of excessive force in response to protests.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Protests, Violence, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

8. Wartime Violence, Collective Grievances and Post-Conflict Protests

Author:
Roman Krtsch
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
The immediate aftermath of civil wars is a period prone to heightened contention: Political decisions about the distribution of aid or power, for example, can deepen social fault lines and in some instances even result in violent unrest. Yet despite its relevance, our knowledge on the drivers for individual participation in post-conflict contentious activism remains limited. Previous research has found particularly wartime experiences to affect political and social behaviour of individuals in the post-conflict period. Based on these findings, I argue that exposure to civil war violence increases the likelihood for individuals to participate in post-war protests. Moreover, I conjecture that this effect can be explained with the reinforcement of group-based grievances. Using survey data from the Afrobarometer collected shortly after the end of the Ugandan civil war in 2008, I find support for the argument: Results from linear probability models show a consistent and robust relationship between county-level war violence and the likelihood to participate in protests. An additional analysis with a novel measure of group-level exposure and a causal mediation analysis furthermore corroborate the assumed mechanism.
Topic:
Conflict, Protests, Violence, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

9. The Role of Petitions in Strengthening Citizens’ Participation in Morocco: Stakes and Outcomes

Author:
Aberrafie Zaanoun
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Morocco’s 2011 Constitution introduced the right to petition public authorities as a tool to encourage and enhance citizens’ participation in the political process. This paper assesses the Moroccan experience by analysing the petitioning process, its constraints, and the opportunities it offers for advancing public interest. It also suggests recommendations to ensure petitions become a more effective role in entrenching participatory democracy in Morocco.
Topic:
Social Movement, Reform, Democracy, Protests, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Morocco

10. Algeria's Hirak: Between Concerns of Division and Betting on Unity

Author:
Moussa Acherchour
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The Algerian Hirak has returned to the street with the same momentum and determination calling for a peaceful regime change, a return that was not without divisions. This paper examines the emerging cracks within the Hirak and the growing regime repressions as two critical factors that are putting to the test its resilience, unity, and sustainability.
Topic:
Social Movement, Conflict, Protests, Peace, and Repression
Political Geography:
Africa and Algeria