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92. Fragile States Index 2021 – Annual Report
- Author:
- Natalie Fiertz, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Emily Sample, and Wendy Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Fund for Peace
- Abstract:
- The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Employment, Fragile States, Economy, Political stability, Conflict, Crisis Management, Peace, Resilience, COVID-19, Health Crisis, Early Warning, and Risk Assessment
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Middle East, Tajikistan, Germany, Armenia, Central America, Spain, Lebanon, Timor-Leste, North America, Ethiopia, Southeast Asia, El Salvador, Global Focus, and United States of America
93. Relaunching Negotiations over Western Sahara
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The fighting in Western Sahara, which broke out again in November 2020, remains of low intensity. Yet outside powers would be wrong to assume that it will not escalate. With U.S. support, the new UN envoy should pursue confidence-building measures that could facilitate negotiations.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, United Nations, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sahara
94. Resilience in Post-civil War, Authoritarian Burundi: What Has Worked and What Has Not?
- Author:
- Gervais Rufyikiri
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- In Burundi the rise of authoritarianism during the post-civil war period fuelled endless political tensions that resulted in intermittent violent but low-intensity conflicts. This Geneva Paper focuses on identifying and understanding the drivers of the positive outlook that characterises Burundians even though the country has often been on the brink of relapsing into a major civil war. The most striking observation is that Burundians have demonstrated a notable capacity for resilience. Resilience theory is briefly discussed, followed by sections on the dynamics of violent conflicts in Burundi, resilient post-war politics, and attempts to heal the country after the ending of the civil war. The role of non-state domestic actors, international actors and community-level actors are then discussed in this regard.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Conflict, Violence, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Burundi
95. War and Conflict in the African Sahel Fruit of History and permanent War Between Two Empires: The Arab-Islamic Empire and the Western Empire
- Author:
- Mamadou Alpha Diallo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- This reflection concerns the armed conflicts of the African Sahel and aims to historically analyze the role of Arab-Islamic colonization, Western colonization and the rivalries between the two. It is based on the hypothesis that the confrontation between jihadist and internal and external interventionists in the region constitutes a historical struggle motivated by humanitarian and non moral geoeconomic interests. Methodologically, a historical and comparative analysis is chosen to conclude that the main causes of conflicts should be located in the colonial maps and the historical rivalry between empires and not in ethnic, tribal and religious deferences or the borders created by Western colonization.
- Topic:
- Colonialism, Conflict, Empire, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sahel
96. Summers of Strife: From Libya to Ethiopia
- Author:
- Nabil Fahmy
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Ethiopia’s obstinance puts the region at a sensitive crossroads again
- Topic:
- Water, Infrastructure, Conflict, Institutions, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
97. Millions of People Continue to be Forcibly Displaced in Africa
- Author:
- Maysa Ayoub
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Even though forced displacement is a global crisis, it is no more obvious than in Africa.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Displacement, Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis, and Forced Migration
- Political Geography:
- Africa
98. Red Lines: Upheaval and Containment in the Horn of Africa
- Author:
- Dan Watson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- This is the final part in a series of three analysis features covering unrest in Sudan. The first in the series — Riders on the Storm — explored the dynamics and agendas which resulted in the Juba Peace Agreement. The second — Danse Macabre — examined the origins of the uprising in Sudan and its trajectory following the coup of April 2019. This final analysis situates Sudan’s current upheaval in the context of the Horn of Africa, and extends the scope of analysis to encompass conflict in Ethiopia and the region.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Conflict, Coup, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and Horn of Africa
99. Preventing Violent Islamic Radicalization: Experimental Evidence on Anti-Social Behavior
- Author:
- Pedro C. Vicente and Inês Vilela
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Violence perpetrated by radicalized Muslims is a major problem around the world. We collaborated with the main Islamic authority in Mozambique, which sponsored two randomized interventions to prevent violence related to youth radicalization: a religious campaign against extremist views of Islam, targeting change in beliefs; and a training module on entrepreneurship and employment, aiming to increase the opportunity cost of conflict. Our measurement focuses on anti-social behavior in a Joy-of-destruction lab game. We find that only the religious treatment decreased the propensity to destroy the payoffs of others. Consistently, surveys show increased trust in the state and decreased support for extremism.
- Topic:
- Development, Political Economy, Religion, Economic Growth, Youth, Conflict, Violence, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
100. Violent Ethnic Extremism in Ethiopia: Implications for the Stability of the Horn of Africa
- Author:
- Yonas Adeto
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Scholarship on the challenges of ethno-linguistic federalism in contemporary Ethiopia is copious; yet a critical analysis of violent ethnic extremism in the country and its implications for the sub-region is rare. This article argues that violent ethnic extremism is a threat to the existence of Ethiopia and a destabilising factor for its neighbours. Based on qualitative empirical data, it attempts to address the knowledge gap and contribute to the literature by examining why violent ethnic extremism has persisted in the post-1991 Ethiopia and how it would impact on the stability of the Horn of Africa. Analysis of the findings indicates that systemic limitations of ethno-linguistic federalism; unhealthy ethnic competition; resistance of ethno-nationalist elites to the current reform; unemployed youths; the ubiquity of small arms and light weapons; and cross-border interactions of violent extremists are the major dynamics propelling violent ethnic extremism in Ethiopia. Thus, Ethiopia and the sub-region could potentially face cataclysmic instabilities unless collective, inclusive, transformative and visionary leadership is entrenched.
- Topic:
- Political stability, Ethnicity, Conflict, and Political Extremism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia