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161. The Emerging Pattern of Geopolitics

Author:
Peter W. Rodman
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The theme of this conference is especially important. Iraq and Afghanistan, important as they are, do not exhaust the strategic landscape. There is a global strategic environment, which presents many challenges in many different regions of the world that bear close attention in their own right. In fact, that global environment forms the context in which we should be thinking about Iraq and Afghanistan. One of the reasons it is so important how well we do in Iraq and Afghanistan is its impact on American credibility—a precious commodity that will affect our success in these other theaters.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, and America

162. Law the Lone Superpower: Rebuilding a Transatlantic Consensus on International Law

Author:
Frances G. Burwell and William H. Taft IV
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Throughout 2006, allegations of U.S. involvement in "renditions" of suspected terrorists from Europe to prisons in Afghanistan and elsewhere reverberated around European capitals. Charges that the United States had established secret prisons in some European countries raised the temperature even further. The European Parliament and the Council of Europe initiated investigations, while some European leaders called for the United States to close its detention facility in Guantanamo, describing the facility as contrary to international law.
Topic:
Terrorism and Torture
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Europe

163. Cracks in the Foundation: Leadership Schisms in Al-Qa`ida From 1989-2006

Author:
Vahid Brown
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Though it has long been known that al-Qa’ida has suffered from disunity at the leadership level, analysis of documents declassified from the Harmony Database allow us to gain a fresh insight into the engine driving those conflicts and illuminate the vulnerabilities that these conflicts have created for the organization. Al-Qa’ida has consistently put its ability to inspire a broader movement over the development of its organizational capacities to pursue strategic military goals. Al-Qa’ida’s preference for branding, the military incompetence of its autocratic leaders, and the unanticipated ferocity of the United States’ response to the attacks of 9/11, have together left the brand managers the only ones standing. This is not to say that al-Qa’ida has not been able to threaten American interests; it has. But its real strength has never been as a fighting force, but rather its ability to transform what have traditionally been the local or national concerns of Islamist activism into a vision of apocalyptic inter-civilizational conflict. This report, grounded in the data from the Harmony documents, charts the history of this transformation and of the internal divisions that surrounded it. The Harmony documents shed light on cohesion problems that have been bedeviling Salafi Jihadi organizations going back more than thirty years. While the branding-versus-bureaucracy crux outlined above has consistently been the driving force, at different points in the development of al-Qa’ida the scope and consequences of this leadership struggle have changed. During the first phase, from the founding of the organization at the close of the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan to the return of the leadership to South Asia after its misadventures in Africa, al-Qa’ida had failed in both areas, creating neither an effective guerrilla organization nor a consistent jihadi message. In the second phase, from al-Qa’ida’s re-establishment in Afghanistan to its dispersal from that refuge by American-led attacks, al-Qa’ida was able to exploit the relative security provided by its uneasy alliance with the Taliban to develop and begin to “market” its anti-American message. Though it was during this period that it was able to carry out the large-scale acts of terror for which it is famous – the 1998 bombings of two American Embassies in Africa and the attacks of September 11, 2001 – internal divisions over the decision to target the United States severely degraded al-Qa’ida’s organizational capacity. During the third and current phase, which began with the United States’ response to 9/11, al-Qa’ida as a centrally-controlled bureaucracy all but disappeared, with most of its key military and strategic leaders dispersed, captured or killed. In this period al- Qa’ida Central has been largely reduced to a media organization, while the Iraq war has created a market for its message, a field in which jihadis with little or no connection to the remnants of al-Qa’ida’s central bureaucracy can take up (and thus alter) the al-Qa’ida banner.
Topic:
Terrorism, Al Qaeda, Leadership, and Ideology
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan, and Somalia

164. Defense Monitor: Where is America Going? Five Years After Sept. 11

Author:
Philip E. Coyle, Whitney Parker, Rachel Stohl, Winslow Wheeler, Victoria Samson, Jessica Ashooh, Mark Burgess, and Rhea Myerscough
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
In the days before Sept. 11, riding the post-Cold War high, America was blissfully unaware of the threats it faced, and why. A few in the William J. Clinton administration tried to warn their successors about al-Qaida's danger, but overall, most Americans were blindsided by the Sept. 11 attacks. Five years later, America is still largely in the dark.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Asia

165. The Defense Monitor: Congress Steps Back From Nukes

Author:
Victoria Samson
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The United States just took one small step away from the brink. Congress has opted against funding research for a nuclear weapon that would target underground bunkers. This decision squelched a program that would likely have created a new nuclear warhead, something that is particularly incongruous at a time when nations around the world are fervently trying to convince the leaderships of North Korea and Iran that their countries do not need nuclear weapons. However, this wisdom on the part of the U.S. government may prove to be temporary.
Topic:
Government, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and North Korea

166. Countering Afghanistan's Insurgency: No Quick Fixes

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Fierce battles rage in southern Afghanistan, insurgent attacks in the east creep towards the provinces surrounding Kabul and a new campaign of terrorist violence targets urban centres. The country's democratic government is not immediately threatened but action is needed now. This includes putting more international forces into the battle zones but insurgencies are never beaten by military means alone, and there are no quick fixes. Diplomatic pressure on Pakistan is needed, and the government of President Karzai must show political will to respond to internal discontent with serious efforts to attack corruption, work with the elected National Assembly and extend the rule of law by ending the culture of impunity. Afghanistan needs a renewed, long-term effort to build an effective, fair government that provides real security to its people.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Asia, and Kabul

167. Afghanistan Stage III: NATO's most ambitious operation?

Author:
Francis Rheinheimer
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
In the months ahead, NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) will deploy thousands more troops to Afghanistan as part of its ongoing mission to “support the Government of Afghanistan in providing and maintaining a secure environment in order to facilitate the re-building of Afghanistan.” Troop levels are expected to rise from about 8,000 in January to 17,000 by the end of October. The expansion, known as Stage III, will be responsible for maintaining security in the troubled southern provinces, where most violent attacks against foreign and domestic forces have taken place. NATO's commander, U.S. Gen. James L. Jones said ISAF could total as many as 25,000 troops eventually. British, Dutch and Canadian forces will be leading the effort to bring peace to Afghanistan through both civilian and military methods. Troops will be engaged in peacekeeping, reconstruction and, in all likelihood, open conflict – an effort Jones called “NATO's most ambitious operation.” Despite a lack of popular support for the missions in all three of the main troop-contributing countries, international leaders have pledged to safeguard Afghanistan from both internal and external forces that would otherwise lead the country into chaos.
Topic:
NATO, Human Welfare, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

168. Afghan Update: March 3 - March 31, 2006

Author:
Francis Rheinheimer
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Three Afghan guards and a French Special Forces officer were killed when insurgents attacked a post in Kandahar on March 4. The same day, a roadside bomb exploded when a government vehicle drove by, killing a local intelligence chief and three of his bodyguards. The Taliban claimed responsibility for both attacks.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

169. Afghan Update: Jan. 1 - Feb. 7, 2006

Author:
Francis Rheinheimer
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Four U.S. soldiers were killed on Feb. 13 when their vehicle hit a bomb in central Afghanistan's Uruzgan province. It was the deadliest single-day loss of American troops since September, when five died in a helicopter crash.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

170. Afghan Insurgency Still A Potent Force

Author:
Emily Hsu and Beth DeGrasse
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Since they reorganized their forces in Pakistan in 2003, Taliban and other anti-government militia have sought to disrupt democratization efforts and sow a climate of fear in Afghanistan. As a result, violence has crept back onto the international radar screen in the last couple of years, a brutal reminder the insurgency is far from defeated. This rise in bloodshed is particularly problematic today, as U.S. forces begin this summer to transfer control of insurgent-heavy regions of the country to NATO. The U.S. Institute of Peace held a recent special session of its Afghanistan Working Group dedicated to this topic, with counterinsurgency experts Seth Jones of the RAND Corporation and Colonel David Lamm of National Defense University. Beth DeGrasse, coordinator of USIP's Afghanistan Working Group
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Asia