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121. Afghanistan: Searching for Political Agreement

Author:
Gilles Dorronsoro
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The coalition strategy has reached an impasse. None of the efforts attempted since the summer of 2009 has halted the deterioration of the political and security situation. Although a few tactical successes might be possible, the coalition cannot defeat the Taliban or rally local commanders to its side. Moreover, the Karzai government enjoys very limited legitimacy and appears incapable of rebuilding a state that can assume responsibility for its own security in the foreseeable future. The coalition faces the risk of an endless engagement accompanied by an intolerable loss of life and treasure.
Topic:
Government, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Asia, and Taliban

122. Afghanistan: A View from Moscow

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin and Alexey Malashenko
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Afghanistan problem has many angles, but a view from the North—the perspective of Russia—has been missing from many previous analyses. The ten-year-long Soviet military involvement in the country is too often dismissed as having little in common with NATO's current mission. The Soviet Union, after all, has failed, and NATO still plans to succeed. For the Russians themselves, the “Afghan syndrome” continues to be very powerful and warns against any new engagement in Afghanistan. While many in Russia still see developments in Afghanistan in a historical context, however, Russia is entwined in a complex web of relationships with the Afghan parties, neighboring states, and the West. Moscow is an important part of the Afghan equation.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Asia, Soviet Union, and Moscow

123. Is a Regional Strategy Viable in Afghanistan?

Author:
Ashley J. Tellis, Martha Brill Olcott, Dmitri V. Trenin, Frédéric Grare, Jessica Tuchman Mathews, Christopher Boucek, Gilles Dorronsoro, Karim Sadjadpour, Michael D. Swaine, Aroop Mukharji, Haroun Mir, Gautam Mukhopadhaya, and Tiffany Ng
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Obama administration has made some decisive changes to the Afghan policy it inherited. Most significantly, in its first year it committed to a 250 percent increase in the American force on the ground (adding 51,000 troops to the 34,000 in Afghanistan when Mr. Obama took office) and lobbied hard to secure increases in non–U.S. coalition forces. It matched this large increase in force with a major reduction in the goal: from raising a democratic state in Afghanistan to the creation of a state strong enough to prevent a takeover by the Taliban, al–Qaeda, or any other radical Islamic group; and to “disrupt, dismantle, and defeat” al–Qaeda (which, of course, is not achievable in Afghanistan or Afghanistan and Pakistan alone). The third pillar of the policy was and is a greater emphasis on the need for a regional approach, a belief the Bush administration moved toward in its closing days.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Religion, Terrorism, and Reform
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, Iran, and India

124. Disrupting, Dismantling and Defeating Terrorism 2.0

Author:
Andy Johnson
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
Third Way's National Security Program is launching a Defeating Terrorism Initiative to help US policymakers better understand and confront the threat posed by al Qaeda and other violent extremist organizations. The Defeating Terrorism Initiative will analyze in a series of products what is fueling the continued recruitment and radicalization of terrorists, how the battlefield—both geographical and ideological—is fluid and shifting, and what tools should be brought to bear to attack the root causes of the threat and halt the spread of violent extremism. In doing so, Third Way will provide near- and long-term policy recommendations for defeating terrorism that cover the military-intelligence-diplomatic spectrum and bridge the foreign-domestic divide. The first of these products—"Disrupting, Dismantling and Defeating Terrorism 2.0"— offers a policy framework for how the US can build on and broaden the disrupt, dismantle and defeat strategy that President Obama has begun in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States

125. Reforming Foreign Security Training to Help Defeat Terrorism

Author:
Andy Johnson and Scott Payne
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
A key component of US strategy to defeat global terrorist groups like al Qaeda is denying them the physical space to operate with impunity. The ability of the US and our allies to train foreign military and security forces can be an effective tool in both preventing terrorists from establishing a foothold in vulnerable states and empowering foreign partners to move against terrorists where they exist today. Yet the current array of US training programs is fragmented, ad hoc, and underfunded. Moreover, overreliance on contractors to provide large scale military and police training in Iraq and Afghanistan, at a collective cost of $48 billion, has led to findings of poor performance, wasteful spending, weak oversight and insufficient accountability.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and North America

126. Crime and Insurgency in the Tribal Areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:
Gretchen Peters
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Insurgent and terror groups operating in the tribal areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan are deepening their involvement in organized crime, an aspect of the conflict that at once presents enormous challenges and also potential opportunities for Coalition forces trying to implement a population‐centric counterinsurgency strategy. To gain a better understanding of these issues, Crime and Insurgency in the Tribal Areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan maps out how key insurgent groups engage in illicit activity in strategic areas, tracks how their involvement in this activity is evolving, and illustrates how insurgent and terror groups impose themselves on local communities as they spread to new territory. The report’s findings are presented through a series of short and anecdotal case studies drawn from field research, primary source documents and open-source reporting. It is hoped that this report will bring some clarity to an extremely complex phenomenon and prove useful to those developing policies and plans for the Afghanistan/Pakistan region.
Topic:
Crime, Terrorism, Taliban, and Haqqani Network
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, and United Arab Emirates

127. Self Inflicted Wounds: Debates and Divisions within al-Qa'ida and its Periphery

Author:
Anne Stenersen, Bernard Haykel, Brynjar Lia, Marc Lynch, Mohammed Hafez, Reuven Paz, Steven Brooke, and Vahid Brown
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Self‐Inflicted Wounds: Debates and Divisions within al‐Qa’ida and its Periphery examines the internal, or endogenous, reasons that have hastened the decline of the jihadi movement. In doing so, it exposes the jihadi movement, with al‐Qa’ida at its helm, as one that lacks coherence and unity, despite its claims to the contrary. The report divides the jihadis’ endogenous problems into two categories: internal divisions plaguing al‐Qa’ida and the jihadi movement proper; and fault lines dividing the jihadi movement from other Muslim and Islamist actors.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Al Qaeda, Ideology, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Palestine, Egypt, and Arabian Peninsula

128. Fixing Bagram: Strengthening Detention Reforms to Align with U.S. Strategic Priorities

Author:
Sahr MuhammedAlly
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
Eight years after launching Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in Afghanistan—with a mission to kill and capture “high-value” al Qaeda and Taliban members and destroy the safe havens from which al Qaeda planned and directed the 9/11 attacks—the United States government has announced several significant detention reforms in Afghanistan. Human Rights First has closely monitored U.S. detention policies and practices since September 11, 2001. In this paper, we analyze the new detention reforms announced in September 2009 and make recommendations for further improvement in U.S. detention practices in line with U.S. policy interests and legal obligations. We base our recommendations on an analysis of the applicable humanitarian and human rights law and field visits to Afghanistan.
Topic:
Political Violence, Human Rights, Terrorism, War, and Prisons/Penal Systems
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban

129. Defining the Punjabi Taliban Network

Author:
Hassan Abbas
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
On march 30, 2009, militants launched a deadly assault on a police training center outside Lahore, the capital of Pakistan's Punjab Province. Eight police cadets were killed. Less than a month earlier, on March 3, gunmen in Lahore ambushed members of the visiting Sri Lankan cricket team, killing at least eight people. Punjab, the most populated of Pakistan's provinces, has largely escaped the bloodshed plaguing the country's troubled northwest. Yet since 2007, violence has escalated in the province. The bold terrorist attacks in Pakistan's heartland—within Punjab Province and in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad—show that local logistical support for these attacks is attributable to what is often labeled the “Punjabi Taliban” network. The major factions of this network include operatives from Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan and Jaysh-i-Muhammad—all groups that were previously strictly focused on Kashmir and domestic sectarian violence.
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Europe, Taliban, and Punjab

130. From AfPak to PakAf: A Response to the New U.S. Strategy for South Asia

Author:
Daniel Markey
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
President Barack Obama publicly unveiled his administration's so-called AfPak (Afghanistan-Pakistan) strategy on March 27, 2009. Over the subsequent weeks, the White House has also briefed relevant congressional leaders and committees, the media, NATO allies, and other regional and international partners. The U.S. House of Representatives has moved ahead with its own legislative debate (the PEACE bill), and the administration recently submitted a 2009 supplemental budget request consistent with its new strategy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Asia