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42. Iraqi Voices Entering 2010
- Author:
- Rusty Barber and William B. Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Successful attacks on key government buildings underscore worries about whether Iraqis can manage their own security. They mask, however, something new in Iraqi society: an emerging vox populi that found potent expression in provincial elections last January, despite the odds. As national elections approach in March, political leaders are realizing that they ignore this growing voice at their peril. Aware that American attention is shifting towards other problems at home and abroad, Iraqis are nervously contemplating how much U.S. support they can expect going forward in their fragile experiment in democratic governance. The U.S. role in helping Iraqis prepare for national elections has been crucial and largely welcome—it should continue through the transition to a new government. Successful complete withdrawal by 2012 depends on an Iraqi government that is responsive to its people’s basic needs and capable of evolving peacefully via fair elections. Longer term, there are several critical areas on which a distracted and resource stretched America should focus. These include intensifying efforts to help Arabs and Kurds resolve disputes and forestall the need for an extended U.S. military presence in northern Iraq. Helping Iraq protect its borders – a vulnerability highlighted by Iran’s recent incursion—and nudging the Gulf Arab states to more actively engage Iraq as an emerging partner in regional security and economic structures will also be key to stability inside and beyond Iraq’s borders. If water is the “new oil” in terms of its resource value and potential to create conflict, that future is now playing out in Iraq. Shortages and poor quality are already causing serious health and economic problems, displacement and raising tensions with Iraq’s neighbors. The U.S. can help here on both the diplomatic and technical sides of the issue.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
43. Building Blocks for Citizenship and a Peaceful Transition in Sudan
- Author:
- Kelly Campbell, Linda Bishai, and Jacki Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Sudan's upcoming elections in 2009 raise hopes and concerns for the country's future. According to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in 2005 between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), Sudan is scheduled to hold national and state level elections in 2009. (Elections are to take place for president of the Government of National Unity, president of the Government of Southern Sudan, members of the National Assembly and the South Sudan Legislative Assembly, and governors and state legislatures in all of Sudan's 25 states) However, delays in each phase of electoral preparation—including the passage of the electoral law, the appointment of the nine National Election Commission members responsible for overseeing elections, and the census—have raised doubts about whether the elections will be held within the timeframe outlined in the CPA.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Government, Peace Studies, and War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan
44. Building Blocks for Citizenship and a Peaceful Transition in Sudan
- Author:
- Kelly Campbell, Linda Bishai, and Jacki Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Sudan's upcoming elections in 2009 raise hopes and concerns for the country's future. According to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in 2005 between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), Sudan is scheduled to hold national and state level elections in 2009. (Elections are to take place for president of the Government of National Unity, president of the Government of Southern Sudan, members of the National Assembly and the South Sudan Legislative Assembly, and governors and state legislatures in all of Sudan's 25 states.) However, delays in each phase of electoral preparation — including the passage of the electoral law, the appointment of the nine National Election Commission members responsible for overseeing elections, and the census — have raised doubts about whether the elections will be held within the timeframe outlined in the CPA.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and War
- Political Geography:
- Sudan
45. What to do about Bosnia and Herzegovina?: The Case for Accelerated NATO Membership and OSCE Coordination of Constitutional Reform
- Author:
- Edward P. Joseph
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The policy choice in Bosnia revolves around one question: how much time does the country have? If one believes that the country is reasonably stable, that another election will produce more cooperative leaders, and that Bosnia's "EU future" is assured, then the way forward is clear: cede international leadership in Bosnia from the U.S. to the European Union.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Balkans
46. Unfinished Business in Bosnia and Herzegovina: What Is To Be Done?
- Author:
- Kurt Bassuener and James Lyon
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- This is the first of three papers USIP will publish this month on Bosnia, each with a different analytical perspective on what is happening in Bosnia and what needs to be done there to prevent a return to violence. We do this in the hope that these papers will generate a fuller debate on options that might be pursued by the U.S. government (USG), Europe and Bosnians.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Democratization, Peace Studies, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Balkans
47. Maliki's Iraq between Two Elections
- Author:
- Daniel Serwer and Sam Parker
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In meetings conducted in Baghdad in May 2009, senior Iraqi leaders indicated how they interpret January's provincial election results, expressed concerns about the recent downturn in security, lamented the tremendous financial pressure the government is feeling due to the decline in oil prices, and projected their hopes for national elections slated for 30 January 2010. The Iraq is, numbering about 20, represented the highest level of nearly all of the main Iraqi political factions, including leaders in the Council of Representatives (COR), members of the presidency, and top officials in the government.
- Topic:
- Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia
48. Justice Interrupted: Historical Perspectives on Promoting Democracy in the Middle East
- Author:
- Elizabeth F. Thompson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Foreign affairs experts routinely use historical analogy to develop and justify policy. However, as professional historians have long noted, attractive analogies often lead to bad policies. Officials regularly choose analogies that neglect or distort the historical case they aim to illuminate. Nonetheless, history can be used effectively in international relations. To do so, practitioners must first recognize the difference between historical analogy and precedent. Historical precedent, drawn from the past of the region in question, is a safer guide to policy than historical analogy, which is based on comparisons to events in other regions. Because historical precedent is a self-limiting form of analogy restricted to a certain place, people, and time, it provides a better indication of how a certain society understands and responds to a given situation. The recent U.S. intervention in Iraq highlights the misuses of history: American leaders employed analogies to World War II to justify the invasion and to predict success in establishing a democratic regime after. These analogies proved to be a poor guide to nation building in the short term. In the long term, they have deeply aggravated U.S. relations with Iraqis and the rest of the Arab world. A more effective use of history would have been to refer to the precedent of World War I, a crucial moment when American policy could have supported indigenous Arab constitutional democracy—but, fatefully, did not. For the new administration, the Arabs' experience of “justice interrupted” after World War I can still be a useful touchstone for promoting democracy in the region. This precedent alerts us that foreign intervention can spark a deep-seated and negative political reaction in the postcolonial Arab world and that reform in Arab politics must begin with respect for national sovereignty. It also reminds us that constitutionalism and the desire to participate in the community of international law are enduring values in Arab politics.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
49. The Limits of Institutional Engineering: Lessons from Iraq
- Author:
- David Waldner
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Post-conflict, post-totalitarian societies like Iraq possess many economic, political, social, and cultural characteristics that are not conducive to democratic governance. A central pillar of democracy promotion is that judicious institutional engineering—crafting new institutions and other elements outlining the democratic rules of the game—can overcome these obstacles and engender stable democracies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Government, Regime Change, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
50. The Kurds in Syria: Fueling Separatist Movements in the Region?
- Author:
- Radwan Ziadeh
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Kurds in Syria have been denied basic social, cultural, and political rights, in many cases stemming from the Syrian state's refusal to grant citizenship.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Arabia