Search

Begin New Search Political Geography Global Focus Publishing Institution The Geneva Centre for Security Policy

21. Reducing Military Risks through OSCE Instruments

Author:
Naomi Egel
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
CBMs for AWS would make a significant contribution to reducing the military risks posed by AWS and - equally important - are a realistic goal. Although agreement within the OSCE cannot be assured, its strong history of developing CBMs and its ability to make progress towards reducing military risk even in a climate of geopolitical tensions makes the OSCE uniquely well positioned to develop AWS CBMs. The growing proliferation of AWS and their increasing importance in military operations means that risk reduction is an urgent priority. Given the numerous challenges to arms control and cooperative security measures in other international organisations, OSCE CBMs offer one of the best opportunities for making progress in reducing the military risks of AWS. Moreover, they would provide a foundation for further governance of AWS by other international organisations. The CBMs proposed here would provide greater transparency regarding states’ capabilities and intentions regarding AWS, and in doing so, would reduce the risks of miscommunication, miscalculation and inadvertent conflict escalation that these systems pose.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

22. Peace and Security 2025

Author:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
On the one hand, 2025 is just around the corner while, on the other hand, it seems far, far away. In Part I of this publication, experts and associates from the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) paint a picture of possible futures in five areas by presenting scenarios that depict potential developments in the period up to 2025. The discussion will include suggestions on what can be done to prevent these scenarios from becoming a reality. In Part II, authors will make specific suggestions on how we can effectively respond to the peace and security environment out to 2025 by using appropriate leadership, crisis management and strategic foresight approaches.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, Peace, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

23. Military Operations and Artificial Intelligence

Author:
Tobias Vestner
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence (AI) systems will most likely transform military operations. This paper explores how AI systems may affect and be affected by principal instruments for preparing and conducting military operations. Therefore, the paper analyses and discusses AI in the context of strategy, doctrine, plans, rules of engagement, and orders to situate opportunities, challenges, and open questions as well as offer overarching observations. The paper takes a broad angle of analysis that enables a general examination of the issue based on new policies and technological developments as well as the consideration of political, military, legal, and ethical perspectives. Thereby, the paper provides insights and avenues to advance further reflection, research, and policy-making on the appropriate integration, management, and use of AI for military operations.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Artificial Intelligence, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

24. Policy and Technology for the Greater Good: Imagining Futures

Author:
Maricela Munoz
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
When reflecting on emerging technologies, policy, and participatory perspectives, one may conclude that security must be collective and human-centred. The concept of human security represents a departure from traditional orthodox positions, which focus on the security of the state.40 The subjects of the human security approach are individuals, and the end goal of this approach is the protection of people from all sorts of threats, e.g. disease, poverty, environmental degradation, military action, terrorism, misinformation, etc. Moving the security agenda beyond state security does not mean replacing it, but rather complementing and building on it. Central to this approach is the understanding that a lack of human security can undermine peace and stability within and between states, while an overemphasis on state security can be detrimental to human welfare.41 Science cannot solve all of humankind’s problems, and new groundbreaking discoveries may even endanger human beings. Modern policymaking, based on multidisciplinary and comprehensive participatory methodologies, must be the vehicle to achieve common understandings, reconciling technology for the greater good with political and business priorities. Good implies that it will solve social and environmental challenges. In recent decades public policy has centred on the promotion of macroeconomic growth, but has done little to guarantee individual and societal well-being.42 But it is possible to incorporate public values into policymaking, improving its effectiveness and increasing trust in institutions while informing and educating the general public. Public meetings, multisectoral engagements, external advisory committees, and mediation processes have shown their ability to increase the quality of decision-making and produce a positive impact. The COVID-19 pandemic allowed us to create a new model for the integration of science, technology and policy responses. We must draw important lessons from this crisis, refine the model and create incentives to mainstream good practices. The erosion of multilateralism, nationalist posturing, and the emergence of new actors and powers are changing the global order. International cooperation is failing.43 This could be a pivotal opportunity for a wider societal response, where polymath approaches, strengthened communication, inclusive dialogue and renewed trust shape a new social contract. Today more than ever leaders in communities, countries, and globally must take a proactive approach and call for open and horizontal conversations on the intersection between science and policy. As part of these conversations, all of us are called on to become humanist leaders wherever we are, and to act without delay on the knowledge and understandings that are being built. The meaningful and effective participation of women, youth, indigenous peoples, persons with disabilities, the LGTBIQ+ community, and others is essential to building partnerships at all levels. The current crises we are facing and the expansive modernisation of technologies for a huge range of purposes have underlined the urgency of the need to embrace our human and collective security, protect our fate as a species, and imagine futures that are safe, resilient, and good for all
Topic:
Globalization, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Humanitarian Intervention, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

25. Strengthening Prevention with Better Anticipation: COVID-19 and Beyond

Author:
Emily J. Munro
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Prevention strategies warrant more attention and can be a framework to apply to situations with different levels of urgency. The cases of the Arctic, the Sahel and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic demonstrate the value of prevention strategies in diverse ways. Anticipation is closely linked to prevention, and we should do more to understand how the future may unfold, and then act on the findings to help us to prevent crises and conflict. The interaction of issues often lies at the centre of the policy challenges we face today. It is necessary to unpack these interactions in order to strengthen our responses. Surprises cannot be entirely avoided, but we should place more emphasis on considering the implications of crises and ensure better integration of our approaches across the short, medium and long term.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Sahel, Arctic, and Global Focus

26. Regulating and Limiting the Proliferation of Armed Drones: Norms and Challenges

Author:
Cholpon Orozobekova and Marc Finaud
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
As a consequence of the attractiveness of the use of drones – for obvious reasons of cost and pilot safety – the international market in armed drones is booming, creating risks of widespread proliferation, especially to non-state actors or states known for their lack of respect for the laws of warfare.This paper analyses these proliferation risks and formulates recommendations on how to mitigate them. Starting in the late 20th century, the growth of guided-missile technologyled the international community to draw up political and legal rules in order to control the export of such sensitive equipment – subsequently including UAVs – to countries where the risk of uncontrolled and/or illicit proliferation and use is the highest. The first such attempt was the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which was established in 1987 to harmonise policies for the export of missiles and related technology and has been gradually extended to cover UAVs. The second regime was a voluntary transparency measure, the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms (UNROCA), established in 1991, to which UN member states are encouraged to report their exports and imports of conventional arms, including UAVs. The third was the Wassenaar Arrangement, launched in 1996 as a multilateral export control regime for conventional and dual-use goods and technologies, to which UAVs were added. The most recent initiative is the ATT, which entered into force in 2014 and regulates transfers of conventional arms, including certain categories of UAVs. As we will see in section 2, however, these regimes are far from being universal and all have limitations that make it difficult to impose constraints on UAV exports.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Military Strategy, and Drones
Political Geography:
Global Focus

27. Resilience and Agility: Managing and Mitigating Evolving Threats in a Hyperconnected World

Author:
Hasssan Abul-Enein
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Over the years a wide range of different evolving threats have been drastic in their impact and magnitude. This impact is likely to be amplified in the future, especially as global risks such as deglobalisation, fractured social contracts, digital divides and technological gaps increase.39 Also, the rollout of stimulus packages and soaring debt that is estimated to top US$10 trillion by the end of 2020 is likely to make the global economic landscape more fragile.40 The COVID-19 outbreak has perhaps resulted in the single largest socio- economic experiment in the history of humankind. As an evolving threat, what started as a health pandemic in China has snowballed, causing disruptions around the globe and impacting every single industry and individual. Countless lessons are being extrapolated from the outbreak. At the core of these lessons is the importance of resilience and agility in any response to an evolving threat. If governments, organisations, businesses, and society are to manage and mitigate threats of this kind that may occur in the future, there is a need to consolidate and further invest in the four pillars highlighted in this study: strategic management and foresight; human capital, diversity and leadership; collaboration and partnerships; and technology and innovation. Together, these pillars make for organisational resilience and agility. This in turn helps organisations to overcome ambiguity and uncertainty by embedding adaptability and flexibility across their structures. This will allow organisations and vested stakeholders to better map out ecosystem changes that threaten their interests and growth. It will also allow them to respond proactively, timeously and effectively by implementing whole- of-enterprise risk management functions and developing solid decision- making structures and frameworks. Investments in these pillars will also provide opportunities for shared value creation and avoid duplication and wastage. This will help drive growth and mitigate the impact of evolving threats by generating innovative solutions faster and more dynamically, and will accelerate the focus on solving problems rather than fighting them. It will also help to develop human capital, ensure accessibility to a variety of solutions to a wide range of problems, and increase integration, which in turn will create safety buffers and support shock containment.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Leadership, Conflict, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. The Future of Mediation in the Post-COVID World

Author:
Itonde Kakoma and Edward Marques
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the state of the world today in two words “uncertainty” and “instability”.28 These two terms will remain the defining characteristics of the future. If we want international peacemaking structures to remain relevant then the evolving nature of conflict must be taken more seriously. Doing so will require addressing fundamental questions including but not limited to: what does an effective mandate look like in the current geopolitical climate? What might de-escalation mechanisms or a ceasefire look like for hybrid or cyber conflicts? How can virtual safe space for dialogue be secured? How do we ensure that peace agreements hold, when the parties to the conflict are so many, and so far away from the conflict itself? How can we advance international cooperation on peacemaking in the absence of an effective UN Security Council? Given the increasingly blurred lines between peace and conflict, the basic concepts of global peace and security and thus the future of peace mediation will need to be reconceived.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Peace, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Mediation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

29. The impact of regulatory frameworks on the global digital communications industry

Author:
Robert Dewar and Ellie Templeton
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
A range of regulatory frameworks have been imposed by national governments and intergovernmental actors to control the operations of the digital communications sector. Whilst exercising their rights to manage entities operating within their jurisdictions, the imposition of economic restrictions has a significant impact beyond limiting commercial operations. This policy brief will analyse the impact of regulatory frameworks on the digital communications industry by exploring three high-profile programmes of restrictions imposed by three very different international actors
Topic:
Communications, Governance, Regulation, and Industry
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30. ‘Assuring our Common Future’, a guide to parliamentary action in support of disarmament for security and sustainable development

Author:
Alyn Ware
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
This guide to parliamentary action in support of disarmament for security and sustainable development has been produced by the partner organisations in order to educate and engage legislators (parliamentarians) in all fields of disarmament, including of nuclear weapons, other weapons of mass destruction, other inhumane weapons, small arms and light weapons, other conventional weapons and emerging weapons. The approach and focus of the guide draws primarily from Securing our Common Future: An Agenda for Disarmament, a report released by the United Nations Secretary-General (UNSG) in 2018 and followed up by the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA) with guidelines and support for implementation. The parliamentary guide offers recommendations and examples of parliamentary action and exemplary policy relating to the disarmament issues and goals outlined in the UNSG’s report. In addition it includes a section on disarmament and public health in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, also with recommendations and examples of policy and parliamentary action.
Topic:
Security, Development, Disarmament, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus