Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Europe borders the Middle East, and the continent cannot insulate itself from events in this region. Its options, however, are limited: Europe is hardly a strategic actor with the political will and requisite capabilities to intervene. Moreover, the Middle East is not easily amenable to foreign intervention. Nevertheless, Europe cannot ignore developments that impact its national security and if it concentrates its efforts, it may have a modest input in ensuring that pro-stability forces gain the upper hand.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Humanitarian Crisis, and 2023 Gaza War
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
For years, the Gaza Strip has been of secondary importance, with the General Staff focusing primarily on the northern front and Iran. This focus has come at the expense of intelligence gathering, building operational plans, and operational attention to Gaza.
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Against the background of Hamas' ongoing war with Israel (and the expressions of support for it among Palestinians and Islamists in Jordan), the Iranian regime has intensified its efforts to subvert the Hashemite monarchy. The arrests in March 2024 of Iranian agents involved in smuggling arms to Muslim Brotherhood elements in Jordan are part of a campaign to counter the role of Tehran in bringing both drugs and weapons over the Syrian and Iraqi borders into Jordan. Tensions rose further over Jordan's supportive role in foiling the Iranian attack on Israel on 14 April 2024. For the Iranian regime, the destabilization of Jordan is a vital precursor for the strategic goal of turning Judea and Samaria into "another Gaza", as Supreme Leader 'Ali Khamenei suggested back in 2014: hence the importance of American and Israeli support for Jordan. The stability of the Kingdom (and thus the need to reduce economic and social strains) is a vital interest of both Israel and the West.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islamism, Muslim Brotherhood, and Regional Security
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
With the world divided between a U.S.-led order of democracies on the one hand, and a cartel of aggressive autocracies – China, Russia, Iran and North Korea – on the other, that is challenging America and its allies, Europe has an important role to play in Israel’s war against Iran and its proxies.
Topic:
National Security, Autocracy, Proxy Groups, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Chaos in the territories poses a security problem to Israel, but such a problem is less acute if the Palestinian militias vying for influence compete with each other.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The positive and businesslike approach that marked the meeting of the Negev Forum Steering Committee and Working Groups in Abu Dhabi (January 9-10, 2023) proves that the drive to entrench and deepen the Abraham Accords is still ongoing despite the change of government in Israel. Hopes for a breakthrough in Saudi-Israeli relations are also still being nurtured, reflected in practical steps already taken. Moreover, the issue was raised with Jake Sullivan during his visit to Israel. Still, as the Arab saying goes, al-’ajalah min al-shaytan – haste is from the devil – and premature pronouncements have done more harm than good. The change will not come overnight: the Palestinian issue is still a stumbling block, and political dynamics in the Kingdom are complex, at least as long as King Salman still reins in some of his son’s ambitions.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Leadership, and Strategic Interests
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The recent visit to the Temple Mount by a government minister raises again the question of the legal status of the Mount, the content and circumstances of the status quo, and the legal questions of Israeli and international law regarding visits there by Jews.
Topic:
International Law, Religion, Territorial Disputes, and Discrimination
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel is facing a series of critical decisions in the national security arena, and the necessary condition for dealing with those challenges is maintaining maximum national cohesion. Therefore, lowering the flames in the current public debates and reaching a compromise is imperative.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, National Security, Leadership, and Partisanship
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israeli officials and the media continuously warn about the dangers of the upcoming Ramadan, on the assumption that Palestinians are more violent during that period. However, this assumption is highly problematic in analyzing the data on Palestinian violence during Ramadan compared with the rest of the year.
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Egypt continues to play an active role in regional affairs, including the Aqaba emergency meeting on the Palestinian situation (February 26) and the ongoing effort to prevent escalation in Gaza. At the same time, Cairo is in the middle of a significant financial crisis. The effects of the war in Ukraine – specifically, grain shortages – brought the Egyptian pound to more than 30 to the dollar, up from 20 in November and 15 in early 2022, facilitated by deliberate government action in response to demands by the IMF. Inflation still soars, and so does youth unemployment. All this could destabilize a nation of 105 million on our border, with dire consequences.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Conflict, Fiscal Policy, and Financial Stability