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2. Managing Lebanon’s Compounding Crises
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Lebanon is suffering economic meltdown while its politicians dither. Reform – and fiscal relief – is unlikely before 2022 elections. While pushing for timely polls, international partners should send humanitarian assistance to ease the public’s pain, keep key infrastructure running and avert security breakdowns.
- Topic:
- Economics, Infrastructure, Humanitarian Crisis, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
3. Pulling Lebanon out of the Pit
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- An uprising of unprecedented scope has rocked Lebanon as the country’s economy tumbles deeper into recession. Poverty and unemployment could lead to violent unrest. Donors should put together an emergency package but condition further aid upon reforms to tackle corruption, a major grievance driving protest. What’s new? The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Lebanon’s economy, which was already slowly imploding, has brought it to the brink of total collapse. Since October 2019, popular protests have pushed for greater accountability from an elite that, having engorged itself, seems incapable of instituting critical reforms. Why does it matter? The accumulation of crises is driving ever greater numbers of Lebanese into absolute poverty. While the lockdown is gradually easing, the loss of jobs and purchasing power triggered new protests that are turning violent and may prefigure the disintegration of state capacity and institutions. What should be done? Lebanon will need emergency external assistance to ward off the worst social consequences of the crisis. Beyond that, external actors and donors seeking to help the country exit the crisis should focus on efforts geared at rooting out corruption and clientelism.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Poverty, Protests, Crisis Management, and Unemployment
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
4. Easing Syrian Refugees’ Plight in Lebanon
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Most Syrian refugees in Lebanon have thought many times about going home but in the end deemed the risks too great. Donors should increase aid allowing the Lebanese government to continue hosting the Syrians, so that any decision they make to leave is truly voluntary. What’s new? Pressure on Syrian refugees in Lebanon to return home is rising. Although Syria remains unsafe for most, refugees are trickling back, escaping increasingly harsh conditions in Lebanon and hoping that the situation will improve back home. Procedures that clarify refugees’ legal status are making return more plausible for some. Why does it matter? While even a small number of successful repatriations represents positive news, conditions are too dangerous for mass organised returns. Yet the Syrian government and some Lebanese political factions increasingly insist that it is time for large-scale returns to begin. What should be done? Donors should plan for many refugees to stay for many years, and provide support to help Lebanon meet Syrians’ needs, ease the burden on Lebanon’s economy, and reduce friction between refugees and their Lebanese hosts. The Lebanese government can take additional administrative steps to ease voluntary returns.
- Topic:
- Government, Refugees, Syrian War, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
5. How Europe Can Help Lebanon Overcome Its Economic Implosion
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Lebanon’s reeling economy badly needs outside aid. Yet the political class, which largely created the problems, is resisting necessary change. The European Union should keep limiting its assistance to humanitarian relief until Lebanese politicians make reforms that benefit all citizens, not just the privileged few.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, Reform, European Union, and Humanitarian Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Lebanon
6. Lebanon's Hizbollah Turns Eastward to Syria
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Lebanese Shiite armed movement Hizbollah has gone all-in for Syrian President Bashar Assad. It has shown it will back his regime by any means necessary, despite doubts about its capacity to win a decisive victory and regardless of the risks to the movement's own moral standing and cross-sectarian appeal. As it is drawn ever-deeper into its neighbour's civil war that seems poised to endure for years, it finds itself increasingly distracted from its original anti-Israel focus and risking a profound reshaping of its identity.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria
7. A Precarious Balancing Act: Lebanon and the Syrian Conflict
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Syria's conflict is leaking out of its borders, but in few places are risks higher than in Lebanon. This is not just a matter of history, although history bodes ill: the country seldom has been immune to the travails of its neighbour. It also is a function of recent events, of which the most dramatic was the 19 October assassination of top security official Wissam Hassan, an illustration of the country's fragility and the short-sight edness of politicians unwilling to address it. Lebanon's two principal coalitions see events in Syria in a starkly different light – as a dream come true for one; as a potentially apocalyptical night- mare for the other. It would be unrealistic to expect Lebanese actors to be passive in the face of what is unfolding next door. But it is imperative to shield the country as much as possible and resist efforts by third parties – whether allies or foes of Damascus – to drag the nation in a perilous direction. In the wake of Hassan's assassination, this almost certainly requires a new, more balanced government and commitments by local and regional actors not to use Lebanese soil as an arena in which to wage the Syrian struggle.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Regime Change, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria
8. Drums of War: Israel and the "Axis of Resistance"
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Of all the explanations why calm has prevailed in the Israeli-Lebanese arena since the end of the 2006 war, the principal one also should be cause for greatest concern: fear among the parties that the next confrontation would be far more devastating and broader in scope. None of the most directly relevant actors – Israel, Hizbollah, Syria and Iran – relishes this prospect, so all, for now, are intent on keeping their powder dry. But the political roots of the crisis remain unaddressed, the underlying dynamics are still explosive, and miscalculations cannot be ruled out. The only truly effective approach is one that would seek to resume – and conclude – meaningful Israeli-Syrian and Israeli-Lebanese peace talks. There is no other answer to the Hizbollah dilemma and, for now, few better ways to affect Tehran's calculations. Short of such an initiative, deeper political involvement by the international community is needed to enhance communications between the parties, defuse tensions and avoid costly missteps.
- Topic:
- Islam, Armed Struggle, Hegemony, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria
9. Lebanon's Politics: The Sunni Community and Hariri's Future Current
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The June 2009 swearing in as prime minister of Saad Hariri, leader of the Sunni Future Current movement, marks a turning point, the end of a period of exceptional domestic political turbulence and regional tensions that began with the 2005 murder of his father, Rafic; led to institutional paralysis; and culminated with the violent May 2008 showdown between government and opposition. It also presents the new leader with a host of novel challenges. The man who took the helm of a once deeply divided Sunni community must discard much of what enabled his rise, if he is to succeed now that he is in power. With Hizbollah, the principal Shiite movement, he must move away from the sectarianism that has become Lebanon's political stock-and-trade. The Future Current should initiate the process of becoming a more genuine, institutionalised party, breaking from the clientelism that will otherwise inhibit the prime minister's transition from community leader to statesman. And Hariri must continue to navigate the difficult normalisation with Syria, over coming deep mistrust among his constituency toward Damascus.
- Topic:
- Islam, Politics, Governance, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
10. Reshuffling The Cards? (II): Syria's New Hand
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Syria typically, and at times justifiably, brings to mind stagnation and immobility. Yet, over recent years, change has been afoot. In 2008, it agreed to Turkish-mediated talks with Israel. It built ties with the Iraqi government after long depicting it as the offspring of an illegitimate occupation. It began to normalise relations with Lebanon, after years of resisting its claim to sovereignty. It accelerated economic reforms. These steps fall short of being revolutionary; some were imposed rather than chosen and reflected opportunism rather than forward thinking. Still, by Syrian standards, they are quite remarkable, especially in contrast to recent fervent militancy.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, and Maryland