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1. Europe's migration block crumbles in Niger

Author:
Hans Lucht
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Frontex has warned that Russia could leverage migration and growing influence in Libya and the Sahel to put pressure on Europe. Based on fieldwork in Niger, this policy brief analyses the shifting political realities on the ground. Driving from the airport in Niamey to the city centre after the coup remains a familiar journey except for the new Russian flags at the roundabouts, alongside those of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. Since the ousting of the democratically elected president, Mohammed Bazoum, in July 2023 Niger’s military rulers fronted by General Tchiani have thrown out the former colonial power France, turned their backs on Europe and the US, and formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) with the political and military backing of Russia. This new and challenging scenario in the Sahel has had a profound impact on several important European priorities in the region. These range from fighting militant jihadism, to great power rivalry with Russia, competition over rich African energy and natural resources, development assistance, and also reducing irregular migration to southern Europe.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Borders, and FRONTEX
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Libya, Sahel, and Niger

2. Battle for the bush: Banditry and violent agrarian change in northwest Nigeria

Author:
Peer Schouten and James Barnett
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Contemporary banditry in northwest Nigeria is a multifaceted phenomenon that encompasses a wide spectrum of violence waged by heavily militarised yet loosely organised rural gangs. These groups engage in everything from cattle rustling to kidnapping for ransom and extortion of peasant communities, with bandits becoming important de facto authorities in swathes of rural northwest Nigeria. Underpinning the contemporary bandit conflict, we argue, is an ongoing ‘battle for the bush’ — a struggle over land, governance and rural livelihoods. Historically, the bush functioned as a shared space for farmers and pastoralists. However, land use data shows that the expansion of cropland farming has gradually overtaken grazing lands, reducing pastoral mobility and generating increasing conflicts. The state’s failure to mediate these tensions or provide equitable land policies, coupled with the breakdown of traditional conflict resolution mechanisms, has allowed grievances to fester. In response, bandits have violently reclaimed and reshaped the governance of the bush, not only as a refuge but as a domain of coercive rule, imposing levies on farming and controlling access to land and cattle. We examine the historical drivers of this transformation and analyse how opportunistic criminals and social bandits have evolved into de facto rural rulers. Along the way, the trend of cropland expansion is being reversed. Yet instead of reestablishing a pastoral idyll, banditry is reproducing the very conditions that gave rise to it, further undermining rural livelihoods in the northwest. This has compounded rural poverty and food insecurity while depriving pastoralist youths’ access to government services and education that could provide for a better future. Our analysis implies that the crisis cannot be solved through military interventions alone but requires a rethinking of rural governance.
Topic:
Agriculture, Land Conflict, Farmer-Pastoralist Conflict, and Banditry
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

3. Ghana’s electrification via rural mini-grids has been disappointing

Author:
Abdul-Bassit Abubakari
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Despite Ghana’s explicit plans to deploy mini-grids for the electrification of off-grid and remote communities, progress has been slow and disappointing. This paper explores how political dynamics and policy shifts have shaped the governance of mini-grids over time. It examines the evolution of mini-grids in Ghana in three phases: preliminary design stage (2007–2013); active implementation period, marked by policy modifications (2013–2019); and subsequent consolidation under a predominantly public-led model post-2019. Guided by an adapted political settlements framework and process tracing methodology, the paper argues that misalignment between the government of Ghana and donors over governance and ownership models, mediated by the country’s competitive clientelist politics, explains Ghana’s limited progress in the development of mini-grids. The paper provides nuanced insights into the complex ways transnational factors and domestic politics interact in shaping the development of mini-grids with wide implications for debates on energy governance and reform in sub-Saharan Africa.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, Electricity, and Development Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

4. The crisis of multilateralism and African peace operations

Author:
Corine van Emmerik and Peter Albrecht
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Resolution 2719, adopted in December 2023, holds the potential to be a watershed in how the UN and the broader international community support African-led peace operations. However, its implementation is faltering amid political inertia, technical hurdles, and US hostility toward global institutions.1 2719 authorised the UN to use ‘assessed contributions’ – mandatory payments by member states – to cover 75% of the costs of African Union (AU) missions, with the AU expected to provide the remaining 25%. Early messaging around 2719 suggested that it might provide stable funding for peace operations on the continent that has hosted the majority of peacekeeping missions since the Cold War. It would recognise that Africans conduct the vast majority of fighting in security operations, yet enjoy neither political leadership of deployments nor financial support that reflects their sacrifice in providing an international public good. However, the resolution has not yet been tested in practice, and geopolitical disruption has caused political momentum to stall. A stable funding basis for African-led peacekeeping now appears increasingly out of reach, as the US retreats from the very institutions of the liberal world order it once claimed to champion, though often inconsistently in practice. The future of the resolution now hinges on a Security Council vote in May 2025, which will determine whether it applies to the AU’s mission in Somalia – the only active AU-led peace operation and therefore the only obvious test case.2
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, Multilateralism, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa

5. Future Danish engagement with Africa: Insights and priorities for Denmark´s new Africa strategy from DIIS’ partners across the continent

Author:
Mary Boatemaa Setrana, Rahma Hassan, Faisal Garba, Mohamed Aden Hassan, Meron Zeleke Ersesso, Adam Moe Fejerskov, Nauja Kleist, and Mikkel Funder
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Remaking political relations with African countries has become a key priority for the Danish government, looking toward a future where Africa becomes of greater (geo)political importance to Denmark and Europe. To achieve this, Denmark is preparing a new plan for its future strategic engagement on the continent. Aiming to situate African countries closer to Denmark’s core foreign affairs, the plan is expected to address questions across the fields of foreign affairs, security, development, and trade, and focus on equal partnerships. The government has indicated a need to build on the mantra of ‘preaching less and listening more’ – as the Danish minister for foreign affairs framed it at a recent visit to Kenya – with political relations based on a ‘pragmatic idealism’ and more genuine forms of cooperation that reflect mutual interests. In this Policy Brief, some of DIIS’ African research partners consider key questions on what it takes to achieve equal partnerships, what a new Danish strategic engagement with Africa should look like, and what it should refrain from.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Engagement, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Denmark

6. Somaliland at the centre of rising tensions in the Horn of Africa

Author:
Jethro Norman
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
On 1 January 2024, a surprise Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was announced between the self-declared breakaway Republic of Somaliland and Ethiopia. The deal allowed landlocked Ethiopia to lease 20 kilometres of Somaliland’s coastal land for naval and commercial purposes. In exchange, Ethiopia would be the first country to recognise Somaliland as an independent nation (later revised by Ethiopia to an ‘in depth assessment’ of recognition). The government of the Federal Republic of Somalia (FGS), which considers Somaliland part of its territory, called the deal a violation of its territorial sovereignty, a position supported by the EU and other international partners. In western Somaliland’s Awdal region, where the coastal land has been promised, there have been widespread protests. The Ethiopia-Somaliland deal has immediately increased tensions throughout the region. The timing of the agreement is significant as it occurred shortly after Somalia agreed to resume talks concerning Somaliland’s disputed constitutional status, putting an abrupt end to the dialogue. Regional blocs are already coalescing between those who support Somalia’s territorial integrity (notably Djibouti, Egypt and Eritrea) and those supporting Ethiopia (including the UAE and Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces). The possibility of a future war in the Horn is a real concern. Analysis has so far focused on Ethiopia’s expansionist actions, especially in light of a looming debt crisis and various internal conflicts, and support from the UAE, an influential regional player. However, it is unlikely that this deal would have been possible were Somaliland itself not already in crisis. Although the news of the agreement was met with celebration in the capital, Hargeisa, Somaliland is not approaching this deal from a position of strength. Since 2022, it has lost control of a significant portion of its eastern territory to pro-unionist forces who established their own administration, SSC-Khatumo. Internal unrest has also been brewing since 2022 due to delayed Presidential elections in Somaliland. Although President Muse Bihi Abdi has allowed clan elders to mediate the election-related disputes, the opposition remains skeptical as to whether elections will indeed occur by the end of 2024. The aim of the deal with Ethiopia is to restore the President’s reputation, and by extension Somaliland’s international reputation, contain domestic resistance, and revive its battered economy. Mediating between Somaliland, Somalia and Ethiopia is necessary, but not enough. Addressing the deep-rooted political crisis within Somaliland and clarifying its status in relation to Somalia are essential for finding a long-term solution to regional instability. Resolving the political status of both Somaliland and the newly established SSC-Khatumo should be a top priority in achieving long-term stability in the Horn.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, Diplomacy, International Organization, Migration, Non State Actors, Fragile States, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa, Somalia, and Horn of Africa

7. Vessel protection against piracy in the Gulf of Guinea: a public private hybrid

Author:
Jessica Larsen and Stephanie Schandorf
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Private security companies supplement state efforts to protect merchant vessels from piracy attacks in the Gulf of Guinea, yet operations are poorly regulated. Denmark and other seafaring states should call for harmonised international legislation, standardised conduct and the creation of robust oversight mechanisms.
Topic:
Security, Maritime Commerce, Piracy, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa, Denmark, and Gulf of Guinea

8. Reimagining peacekeeping in Africa and beyond

Author:
Peter Albrecht, Corine van Emmerik, Kwesi Aning, Nina Wilén, and John Karlsrud
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The ending of the United Nations (UN) peacekeeping mission in Mali in 2023, coupled with preparations for concluding the more than two decades-long mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in late 2024, signal a new trend in international peacekeeping: a move away from extensive, multidimensional missions towards more targeted and stabilisation-focused, often ad hoc, operations. These milestones in peacekeeping point to the need for UN member states, from both the South and North, to respond to the contemporary global landscape and conduct a thorough reassessment of the effectiveness of peacekeeping. The absence of any new, large-scale, multidimensional peacekeeping initiatives since such missions were deployed in South Sudan (2011), Mali (2013) and the Central African Republic (2014) further emphasises the uncertain future of peacekeeping. There is a growing recognition that these operations have failed to meet expectations and achieve their intended objectives of establishing lasting and equitable peace where they deploy. This realisation, together with a crisis of consent from host states, has led to waning confidence in and enthusiasm for such interventions among the international community. Alongside a declining belief in the ‘liberal world order’ primarily advanced by governments and practitioners in Europe and North America, this underscores a deep-seated change in the field of international peacekeeping. On the one hand there is a need to adapt and critically assess almost six decades of peacekeeping, as highlighted in the UN’s New Agenda for Peace, including the political and ideological basis upon which this form of intervention stands. Indeed, peacekeeping has not only attempted to respond to the changing nature of conflict, especially after the Cold War, it has also directly contributed to existing inequalities globally and represented an increasingly violent form of intervention from its traditional point of departure. On the other hand, with UN-led peacekeeping missions (possibly) phasing out, it is crucial to also critically analyze the new forms of intervention that are emerging. Their suitability for the diverse operational challenges encountered must be assessed, especially in Africa where most UN missions have been deployed, often led by the African Union (AU) or through ad hoc coalitions that sometimes operate beyond UN and AU mandates.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Fragile States
Political Geography:
Africa

9. Europe's role in the Sahel

Author:
Christine Nissen
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
A few years ago Africa’s Sahel region sat at the top of the EU’s foreign policy and security agenda. European member states were mobilising significant resources to address the security challenges of the region. This changed overnight on the 24th of February 2022 when Putin’s Russia invaded Ukraine and resurrected the spectre of conventional war on the European continent. From that day all Europe’s focus was directed to the Eastern threat, and European presence in the Sahel has since been scaled down. The Russian war in Ukraine is not the only reason why Europe is scaling down ambitions in the Sahel. Indeed, growing anti-Western sentiment amongst Sahelian governments and populations, and increasing resistance to European, and not least French, interference have made it challenging for European countries to stay engaged in the region. The Ukraine War and the European re-focus eastwards is symptomatic of the changing global order, which tells a broader story of European–African relations in crisis. The world is changing – and European governments are struggling to decide how to position themselves within it. In the short term Europe emerges as the primary loser due to its limited readiness to navigate this evolving landscape.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and International Order
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Sahel

10. Climate-related losses and damages to social cohesion are overlooked

Author:
Lily Salloum Lindegaard and Francis Jarawura
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Climate change and related impacts – like forced migration and displacement – affect the social cohesion that is crucial for communities to function and thrive. Yet blind spots and misconceptions may misdirect response efforts.
Topic:
Climate Change, Displacement, Social Cohesion, and Forced Migration
Political Geography:
Africa, Ghana, and Niger