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11. Europe's Unrecognised Neighbours: The EU in Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Author:
Nicu Popescu
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The EU can do little to achieve its policy objectives in its Eastern neighbourhood without facing the issue of secessionist conflicts. This paper deals with EU policy towards Georgia and the secessionist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It discusses the reasons for and constraints on EU policies, their effects and perception in the secessionist entities. The paper concludes with recommendations on how the EU can contribute to conflict resolution in Georgia through a greater inclusion of the conflict regions into the European Neighbourhood Policy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia

12. State Capture and Widespread Corruption in Serbia

Author:
Vesna Pesic
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Large-scale systemic state capture, which is the root of widespread corruption, is acquiring such proportions in Serbia that it may undermine the success of its transition. 'State capture' is defined as any group or social strata, external to the state, that seizes decisive influence over state institutions and policies for its own interests and against the public good. The appropriation of state institutions and functions by the political party leadership is being carried out at an alarming rate in Serbia, as supported by research data in this paper by Vesna Pesic, an International Policy Research Fellow. The phenomenon of state capture is explored in depth looking at its background, prevalence and variety of mechanisms in Serbia today. The author concludes with policy options and recommendations to help curb corruption, address the deep mistrust expressed by the Serbian people about their political system, and to pave the way for democratic transition.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Serbia

13. Russian-Algerian cooperation and the 'gas OPEC': What's in the pipeline?

Author:
Hakim Darbouche
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's statement to Spain's El País1 that the idea of a 'gas-OPEC' should not a priori be excluded, adds to a series of twists, among which was Vladimir Putin's confirmation on 1 February that the idea of a gas cartel was an 'interesting one' worth considering further. Hitherto, this gas saga featured Russia, Algeria, the EU, NATO and Iran. The story revolves around Russian-Algerian mingling on gas matters, spurring European and Transatlantic concerns over the prospects of a 'gas OPEC'. At a time of increasing European dependence on foreign energy supplies, these developments have been interpreted as being part of a wider effort, led by Russia, to use energy as a lever to undermine European diplomacy. These allegations have been dismissed by Algeria and Russia, whose leaders insist that their cooperation is intended to optimise their benefits and those of their customers alike. This paper examines the underpinnings of these developments by assessing the likelihood of their culmination in a gas cartel and offers an insight into the potential policy choices behind them.
Topic:
Economics and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Algeria

14. European Neighbourhood Policy Two Years on: Time indeed for an 'ENP Plus'

Author:
Michael Emerson, Gergana Noutcheva, and Nicu Popescu
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Conceived in 2003 and 2004, the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) has now had two years of operational experience. This initial experience has seen a sorting out of the partner states, with Action Plans drawn up for five Eastern and seven Southern partner states. We would distinguish among these 12 states between the 'willing' and the 'passive'; and among the other partner states without Action Plans between the 'reluctant' and the 'excluded'. These groupings should be the basis for stronger differentiation in the policy packages offered by the EU. In general the political context now calls for a strong reinforcement of the ENP, since the benign situation of 2004 has given way now to a more menacing one, given threats to European values bearing down on the EU from all sides. The EU institutions recognise these needs in principle, and last December the Commission advanced many valuable proposals. 'ENP plus' is a term being used by the current German Presidency, without this yet being defined in a public document in operational detail. In our view, 'ENP plus' could mean: Plus an advanced association model for the able and willing partner states, Plus a strengthening of regional-multilateral schemes, Plus an upgrading of the standard instruments being deployed, and Plus the offer of an 'ENP light' model for difficult states or non-recognised entities.
Topic:
Development and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

15. The Presevo Valley of Southern Serbia alongside Kosovo: The Case for Decentralisation and Minority Protection

Author:
Beata Huska
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In May 2001, the 17-month insurgency of Albanians in Southern Serbia came to an end. In the Konculj Agreement, Albanians agreed to disarm and disband the Liberation Army of Presevo, Medvedja and Bujanovac (UCPMB) in exchange for the promise of amnesty for their fighters, the return of refugees, the creation of a multi-ethnic police force and the integration of Albanians into public institutions. After decades of official discrimination and exclusion from state institutions, the adoption of the Covic Plan, which foresaw the goals mentioned above, provided an opportunity to respond to Albanian grievances and win loyalty of the Albanian minority to the Serbian state. The plan drawn up by Nebojsa Covic, Deputy Prime Minister of Serbia in 2001, contained clear goals with deadlines, including “the integration of Albanians into the political, government and social system”, meaning into the police, judiciary, health services, education, municipal institutions, economy, etc. in proportion to their numbers.
Topic:
Demographics, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania

16. Policing Bosnia and Herzegovina 2003-05: Issues of Mandates and Management in ESDP Missions

Author:
Susan E. Penksa
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The European Union Police Mission (EUPM) in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) represents a watershed development for the EU and its emerging European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). Never before has the EU organised and managed this type of stabilisation programme. In some ways, the launching of EUPM defined a new stage in the evolution of the EU itself, and certainly of the ESDP. An examination of the implementation of the EUPM in 2003-06 and the current planning for an EU mission in Kosovo suggests that a process of institutional change and learning has occurred among EU and national officials. At the same time, it is apparent that significant improvements are still necessary in the coordination between and within EU pillars as they relate to ESDP operations. To that end, this study focuses on five important challenges revealed by EU field operations in BiH: mission mandates; personnel expertise, recruitment and training; program design, implementation and assessment; reporting and decisionmaking procedures and structures; and the functions of EU representatives in the field (EU Special Representatives, Commission Head of Missions and Member States). Lastly, it also suggests the means to materially improve EU crisis response, paying special attention to lessons learned during the first EUPM and from EU efforts to address organised crime in BiH.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

17. Variable Geometries: Mapping Ideas, Institutions and Power in the Wider Europe

Author:
Fabrizio Tassinari
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The controversies and ambiguities characterising the EU neighbourhood strategy are ultimately due to the fact that the wider Europe concerns the conceptual, strategic and spatial limits of Europe. It is in this wider Europe that the EU as process meets the EU as actor. It is here that its 'gravitational power' meets its 'normative power'. It is here that the sui-generis EU governance system meets its foreign policy capabilities.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

18. Reverse Balkanisation? Trade Integration in South-East Europe

Author:
David Kernohan
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Recent research from the World Bank and elsewhere suggests that openness to trade was a vital ingredient in the transition of the former Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) that joined the EU in May 2004. Current EU association agreements in South East Europe indicate that future enlargements may need to accommodate the remaining former Yugoslav Republics as well as the existing candidate countries. This paper examines persistent concerns that trade openness in South East Europe generally, and the former Yugoslav Republics in particular, is much less advanced than it was for the former CEECs in the mid to late 1990s. In particular we examine the issue of whether the present network of bilateral trade arrangements put in place under the Stability Pact has had much effect in boosting trade integration and whether trade within the region is currently at or below its potential. Given the small size of many of the countries in the region, we find that trade patterns remain problematic. In some cases they are smaller than might be expected but in several cases there is an overdependence on trade with old Yugoslav neighbours. In view of this, we consider that current plans to extend the Stability Pact matrix of bilateral trade agreements into a pan-regional trade association are likely to be inadequate. A better option, and one more likely to have a more immediate effect, would be to extend the present Customs Union with Turkey to include trade with the entire South East European zone of countries linked to the EU.
Topic:
International Relations and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Balkans

19. What should the Community of Democratic Choice do?

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In August 2005, President Saakashvili of Georgia and President Yushchenko of Ukraine met at Borjomi, Georgia, and decided to launch an initiative to promote democracy among a community of like-minded states of Central and Eastern Europe. This led to a meeting in Kyiv on 2 December 2005, of a wider group of countries of the Baltic-Black-Caspian Sea region, which adopted a declaration announcing the creation of a Community of Democratic Choice (CDC) as a governmental and non-governmental forum to promote the strengthening of democracy, human rights and civil society. The next meeting of the CDC will take place as a Baltic and Black Sea Summit in Vilnius in May 2006.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

20. It's a long way to Copenhagen

Author:
Willem H. Buiter
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
On October 3, 2005, Turkey officially started negotiations for membership in the European Union. Whether Turkey becomes a full member of the EU is likely to be a defining decision, both for the existing EU members and for Turkey. The regional - and geo-political consequences of success or failure of the negotiations, and its cultural and ideological impact, are likely to be even more significant than its economic consequences, although even from an economic perspective the stakes are very high. Turkey's population of over 70 million is larger than that of the ten countries that joined the EU on 1 May 2004 combined. Unlike the EU-25 (and in particular the ten new member states), the Turkish population is young and growing. Its present per capita income is lower than that of any of the EU-25 countries – about at the level of Romania and Macedonia, using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) estimates of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, with the right institutions and policies, Turkey could become a true tiger economy. But this is not guaranteed. With the institutions and policies of the second half of the 20th century, it could end up a mangy cat instead of a tiger.
Topic:
International Relations and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Eastern Europe, Romania, and Macedonia