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11. Lebanon’s Solar Rollout: In What Ways Has It Been an Unjust Energy Transition?

Author:
Yusra Bitar
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Lebanon’s national electricity supply has nearly collapsed, with the country’s residents experiencing constant power cuts over the past three decades and total blackouts since 2020.1 This has led residents across the country to find their “coping strategies” - which have become somewhat normalized - to deal with the national shortages, including purchasing or subscribing to diesel generators.2 More recently, these coping strategies have started to include solar energy installations, which have been deemed revolutionary for Lebanon,3 although in reality, the story is much more complex. As the climate crisis worsens and global institutions start to advocate and fund just transitions,4 it is imperative to reflect on what this means to prevent the repetition of collective injustices. This paper briefly outlines the solar energy landscape in Lebanon and asks some questions about the country’s solar rollout, including who benefits from it and how, as well as how this process repeats past energy injustices. It then presents some case studies of initiatives that have addressed some community energy needs while offering lessons for future energy planning. The paper concludes with recommendations to policymakers, civil society organizations, and the private sector as they transition to solar energy.
Topic:
Environment, Solar Power, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

12. The Muhammasheen Mobilization Among Yemen’s Most Marginalized Community

Author:
Aisha Al-Warraq
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The historical disenfranchisement Yemen’s Muhammasheen face would still be invisible today, to the rest of the country and wider the world, if not for the community’s own mobilization efforts in the past four decades. Muhammasheen, meaning “the marginalized”, is a contemporary term for a people whom the rest of Yemeni society had for generations untold referred to with names such as Al-Akhdam, “the servants” or Al-Abeed, “the slaves”. Despite centuries of recorded history in Yemen, this ethnic minority’s dark skin has traditionally been denigrated by the rest of society as not belonging to the country, causing them to face caste-like ostracization, stigmatization, and denial of basic human dignity. Muhammasheen communities are often found in shanty towns at the periphery of Yemen’s urban centers and in isolated rural areas. This exclusion from mainstream society, dispersion around the country, and the blurry definitions that define the group have made assessing their numbers difficult, with estimates ranging anywhere between 500,000 and 3.5 million.1 In the 1990s, Muhammasheen who sought to better their community’s situation began to be increasingly vocal and active in drawing attention to their plight and asserting their right to be regarded as full members of society. The powers that be have, by turns, attempted to oppress and coopt these initiatives, as well as exploit the Muhammasheen’s vulnerable status, which has only been exacerbated by Yemen’s ongoing civil war. The belligerent parties on all sides, for instance, have sought out Muhammasheen youth in their impoverished communities and lured them to fight on the frontlines with the promise of a paycheque. At the national level, Muhammasheen advocacy is today as fragmented as the country itself. However, the drive within the group to better the community at large continues to gain momentum, as evidenced by the ever-growing number of local initiatives around the country, even as the goal of full citizenhood remains a distant prospect. The following paper examines the history and development of Muhammasheen-led activism in Yemen, and this marginalized community’s struggle for self-empowerment.
Topic:
Marginalization, Racism, Activism, and Muhammasheen
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

13. The Road Ahead of Algeria’s Elections: A Changing Status Quo?

Author:
Zine Labidine Ghebouli
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
In December 2019, Abdelmadjid Tebboune was elected as President of Algeria to replace Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who was forced by the February 2019 Hirak popular protest to resign in April of that year.1 Tebboune was, therefore, inaugurated amidst a deep and turbulent political crisis characterized by an unprecedented protest movement known as the Hirak, a large-scale operation of “clean hands” that targeted hundreds of corrupt senior officials and a fractured ruling establishment. Since then, the Tebboune administration engaged in multiple reforms to rehabilitate the state’s institutions, stabilize the country’s political and social fronts, revive the ailing economy, and reclaim Algiers’ place on the international stage. Four years after his election, the country is preparing for a consequential presidential race which will not be an easy task for any candidate, including the current leadership. Throughout his presidency, Tebboune had to endure several setbacks that often placed his agenda at risk and imposed urgent domestic and foreign policies. In early 2020, the world faced the COVID-19 pandemic2 which paralyzed international and local governance including in Algeria. President Tebboune himself was hospitalized in Germany3 following his infection and had to undergo a relatively long recovery. In addition, Algeria found itself at the heart of complex geopolitical equations when Russia launched a full-scale invasion against Ukraine in February 2022.4 As a historic military partner of Moscow, Algiers had to walk on thin lines between its principled non-alignment doctrine and Western pressures to condemn Russia. At the same time, Algiers had also to deal with regional crises including its escalatory cold war with Rabat,5 security turmoil in the Sahel’s Mali6 and Niger,7 and risks of instability in neighboring Tunisia and Libya. Furthermore, the 2019 protest movement left its mark on Algerian society as a new generation of Algerians emerged with unique demands and aspirations. While the 2019 elections were essentially focused on sociopolitical stability, candidates for the December 2024 presidential race are expected to provide concrete reforms on domestic affairs and foreign policy. In that sense, a set of priorities is already pressuring the ruling establishment as well as the opposition regarding political reforms, economic revival, and regional dossiers; and how these priorities are addressed is likely to weigh during the vote Hence, an assessment of Algeria’s challenges and the maneuvering of the Tebboune administration is critical ahead of December’s elections to both identify the potential dossiers that will shape public debate and candidates’ programs and draw realistic expectations about the opposition’s options and chances.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Status Quo
Political Geography:
Algeria and North Africa

14. Emergence, Resilience, and Tensions: A Decade of LGBTQ Activism in Morocco

Author:
Sanae A.
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Although Article 4891 of Morocco’s Penal Code criminalizes homosexual acts, LGBTQ organizing in Morocco has taken a new turn since 2011, with the emergence of multiple collectives that organize and employ a variety of strategies to claim their rights as a community. The emergence of LGBTQ collectives can be traced to a post-2011 wave of new forms of organizing.2 During the 2011 social uprisings that swept the MENA region, Morocco’s 20 February social movement mobilized large numbers of citizens around socio-economic and political demands. The movement marked a new era in Moroccan politics and political resistance in the public space. As a youth-led movement, it challenged previous modes of organizing and existing alliances and divisions within the political scene and expanded the public sphere by offering alternative spaces to express grievances and to organize around them. The movement symbolized “hope for Moroccan youth”3 and challenged classical ways of taking political action while bringing into the public debate taboo topics such as feminist body politics, reproductive rights, religious freedoms, and the rights of sexual and gender minorities. At the same time, activists who identified as LGBTQ brought forward discussions around sexual orientation and the rights of LGBTQ. These issues were not explicitly part of the political agenda of the 20 February movement, however, many activists within it who identified as LGBTQ brought queer slogans during official protests with signs reading “Oppression is here, I am here” or “Love is not a crime.” New forms of organizing that emphasized occupying the public space in addition to artistic expressions (such as the production of magazines and zines, graffiti, and music) and underground cultural expressions (such as teach-ins and social theater) came to the surface. This essay explores the evolution of LGBTQ organizing in Morocco since 2011, highlighting the impact of the 20 February social movement as a catalyst for activism. It discusses the emergence of LGBTQ collectives, their strategies for claiming rights, and the challenges they face, including surveillance, violence, and cooptation. The essay also examines new generations of LGBTQ activism, the role of social media, and the response to outing campaigns. It delves into the tensions within local LGBTQ politics, including the debate between culturalist and systemic approaches, and the effects of NGOization on the movement's goals and strategies. It underlines how the increasing visibility of the LGBTQ movement, and the queer critiques of the Moroccan women’s rights movement compels feminist groups to reflect on their politics and the very definition of what feminism is and who it is for.
Topic:
LGBT+, Resilience, and Activism
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

15. Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in Lebanon’s Palestinian Camps: Emotion and Reason, Solidarity and Militancy

Author:
Marie Kortam
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
In September and early October of 2023, I was in Lebanon on a working visit to the Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp after the outbreak of bloody battles between the Fatah movement and the “Muslim Youth.”1 The clashes in Ain al-Hilweh began on 30 July 2023, following the assassination of Abu Ashraf al-Armushi, Fatah’s security chief for southern Lebanon. The Palestinian National Security Forces, affiliated with the Palestinian Authority, are responsible for protecting and managing the security of Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, and communicating with the Lebanese army to solve any incidents that occur. The clashes continued intermittently until late September, and stopped completely as Operation Al-Aqsa Flood began, with rogue elements on both sides promising to resume their conflict after the Gaza War. This was not the first time that Ain al-Hilweh camp has witnessed an armed conflict between Fatah and the "Muslim youth." This battle was one round in a series of escalations between Fatah and various Islamist militant groups which began with the establishment of Osbat al-Ansar in 1990, then with more extremist groups that splintered from al-Ansar after it concluded a peace agreement with Fatah in 2002. In reality, this battle was a conflict between Fatah and Hamas over control of the camp, as part of their fundamental struggle over Palestinian legitimacy. One hypothesis suggests that the recent clashes in Ain al-Hilweh resulted from an attempt by a party with no stakes in reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas to scuttle the dialogue conference in Egypt held on 30 July 2023. Fatah members, residents, and activists in the camp claim that Hamas is fighting “with another’s sword” against Fatah, that is, using unrecognized Islamic groups in the camp such as the Maqdisi group led by Fadi Al-Saleh, a close affiliate of Hamas who works with Turkish non-governmental organizations and supports the "Muslim Youth" groupings. Historically, the camps in Lebanon were under the control of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), and still are. However, since Mahmoud Abbas took over the administration of the Palestinian Authority, the Fatah movement, the PLO, and all Palestinian national institutions have marginalized refugees and failed to prioritize their cause. As a consequence, Palestinian refugees became increasingly discontent with Abbas’ positions, even those within the ranks of the Fatah movement, albeit this discord was not always made public. As for Hamas, it lost its base in the Yarmouk camp in Syria after the rift between it and the Syrian regime with the outbreak of the Syrian revolution, which made it search for another base among the refugees. Ain al-Hilweh camp was one of its areas of interest, as the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon where Islamist movements such as the Osbat al-Ansar and the Mujahid Movement were present, making the camp fertile ground for Islamist activity. Hence, it became logical for Hamas to compete with Fatah over governance of the Lebanese camps, the most important of which is Ain al-Hilweh as the capital of the Palestinian diaspora. This article presents a preliminary analysis of the perception of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon towards Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and the forms of solidarity with Gaza, both as socio-political solidarity and as militant engagement at a moment of intense competition between Fatah and Hamas. The article also raises the issue of the mobilization of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon and Hamas's attempts to establish influence in the camps in the aftermath of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood. The article is based on official and informal meetings, observations during field visits to the camps in early October and November 2023, and a review of news coverage.
Topic:
Refugees, Solidarity, Hamas, Armed Conflict, and Al-Aqsa Flood
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Lebanon

16. Egypt: The Price of Inaction on Tax Reform

Author:
Omar Ghannam
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Like public finances elsewhere, the public finances of the Egyptian state suffer from a semi-permanent deficit. Although a limited deficit in state budgets is acceptable for most prevailing economic theories, the persistent and worsening deficit in public budgets leads to severe phases during which the economy suffers. During periods of economic prosperity, soft loans are easily accessible, which encourages states to rely on borrowing as a secondary source of financing for extended periods until it becomes a permanent source of financing. The financial market eventually puts an end to every period of easy borrowing, forcing the government to face the reality it has tried to avoid. Under such circumstances, governments have three tools at their disposal: borrowing at the highest interest rate, austerity and disabling services and social protection programs, and raising taxes and customs duties. Borrowing at the highest interest rate is every government's first choice because it does not require a reformulation of the social, economic, and political contract between the state and its citizens. But the price of such a policy is a worsened deficit. Borrowing, before or after a crisis, is not a solution but merely a postponement of the crisis, in the hope that the market recovers. When it is no longer possible to borrow amid the worsening economic conditions of a crisis, the government resorts to other tools with varying degrees of risk. Austerity is a recipe for widespread social outcry and has catastrophic effects on the poor and middle classes as well as the overall economy due to decreased purchasing power. To overcome the crisis with the least social tension, the state can also resort to taxation to generate possible revenues whether from the economy as a whole or the sectors and classes with concentrated surpluses of value. The more severe the crisis, the more the government is forced to use additional tools and impose strict measures. Debts are nothing but deferred taxes, and taxes remain key in every economic crisis. When a global economic crisis looms, questions abound. Could the crisis be approached with fewer social and economic burdens and with more room for maneuver? In this context, this paper will discuss the tax policies adopted in the past few years in Egypt and how they could have been more effective. The primary role of taxes is to meet the government's financial needs to implement its role under the social contract, whether formal or informal. Therefore, taxes are a convenient introduction to understanding the political economy of any state. Tax policies are an essential tool for achieving macroeconomic goals, and they directly reflect the political and socioeconomic considerations driving a country’s economy. This paper will address the main role of taxes in financing the requirements of the social contract from the perspective of the adequacy and effectiveness of tax collection.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Reform, Finance, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

17. Why Morocco’s Youth Employment Policies Continue to Fail

Author:
Ismail Ait Bassou
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Although Morocco has launched several programs designed to provide job opportunities for young people, youth unemployment rates remain high. This paper argues these programs have proven ineffective and are compounded by an unsustainable business environment, and presents some recommendations to ensure the planned reforms in the youth employment sector deliver on what they promise.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Youth, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Africa and Morocco

18. Civil Society Organizations and Just Transition in the Middle East and North Africa Challenges and Opportunities

Author:
Shady Khalil, Saker El Nour, Rayan Kassem, Kanj Hamade, and Clémentine Lienard
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The ongoing climate, political, economic, and social crises across the Middle East and North Africa have made engaging in a collective process of transition to a more just and sustainable economic and environmental model an absolute necessity. In order to build such a future, there is a need to address key topics such as water access, food security and sovereignty, and energy transition through a multifaceted perspective combining ecological, social, economic, and political lenses. Hence the notion of “just transition”, which has been taken up by some governments, civil society actors, and even some private entities, although they seldom agree on what constitutes such a transition or how it can be implemented in the Middle East and North Africa. Ongoing international events and processes have also affected perspectives on just transition, though the region and its priorities often seem marginalized in such conversations. Our conference sought to address the questions of what exactly would constitute a just transition in the Middle East and North Africa (notably when it comes to access to food and water justice) given the myriad of challenges and the restrictive spaces for mobilization, notably for marginalized communities. In addition, it will explore who decides and sets the agenda for just transition in the region and how civil society organizations (CSOs) can mobilize and work with local communities towards the achievement of a more inclusive process. The dynamics between local and international actors will be explored, notably the question of how the international community can support environmental CSOs in developing a homegrown agenda that is responsive to local needs. Finally, the issue of reframing the narrative around the needed changes for a sustainable future in the region will be explored through the lens of strengthening collaborations with journalists to push for an increase in public awareness of those matters.
Topic:
Environment, Civil Society Organizations, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

19. Social Protection under Kais Saied’s Political Project: Crumbs and Clues in Search of a Vision

Author:
Cyrine Ghannouchi
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Advocates of a social contract approach to social protection consider that social protection has been core to the legitimacy and sustainability of any political project, even if the latter does not offer a space for political participation.1 Historically, the post-independence state-building phase in Arab countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, or Algeria, generously validated this stance as the state positioned itself as the provider for, and protector of, societies, which helped freshly formed governing systems to quickly gain legitimacy for imposed regimes. The social policy of the state overall sustained adherence to a basic social contract (of subordination): the state provides, the people obey.2 This does not mean that post-independence social policies in the region did not score positive achievements in their early years, but it is important today to reflect on those “success stories” by unpacking their political motivations, locally and globally. Recent scholarship from the region started deconstructing those long-standing official narratives from the exploration of the perpetuation of colonial legacies by post-independence elites to the role of welfare in sustaining security belts around authoritarian regimes. However, the post-independence context is significantly different from the post-uprisings landscape. Since 2011, grievances across the region continued to have a strong socioeconomic character, resonating with provision and protection but also demanding political participation – to various extents – and translating the common need for a rupture with old social contracts. The erosion of the social role of the state under globalized neoliberalism and the shortcomings of development models are unanimously pinpointed as the main drivers of the uprisings, but there has been more to it since then. Today, it is also anchored in the dilemma between the state's capability to re-answer the 3Ps (provision, protection, political participation) amidst international turmoil and the very nature of domestic political projects in the Arab region. The Tunisian experience became widely adopted as an illustrative case study in this regard. The current situation in Tunisia is often summarized as the abortion - or spoiling - of the premises of a new social contract and the political cooptation of social momentum. Tunisia is also often cited as evidence to back the necessity of methodological shifts in understanding post-uprising dynamics by equally acknowledging the coexistence of political continuity and rupture.3 The persistence of unrest for over a decade is but the translation of tensions between political elites resisting or curbing prospects of change to preserve (or redistribute) privileges and social groups refusing to settle for an unachieved revolutionary process. However, in the meantime, much has happened, from police violence to political instrumentalization and cooptation of civil endeavors, slowly dismantling networks of collective action and deeply affecting the ability of individuals to keep the fervor alive. In the case of Tunisia, unmet needs, exhaustion, disillusionment, and political deadlock, coupled with a chaotic management of the Covid-19 pandemic, paved the way to another milestone in 2021, namely the declaration of the state of exception by President Kais Saied and the suspension and subsequent dissolution of the Parliament. Tackling social protection and vulnerability in Tunisia and understanding the process that led to July 25 are intrinsically linked, and so is exploring the limits of Saied’s political project. This paper is not interested in revisiting the diagnosis of the socioeconomic situation in Tunisia nor does it pretend to provide answers. However, it uses a social contract lens to shed light on blind spots in debates on social protection in Tunisia in its first section, particularly the “unspoken dynamics of unseen vulnerabilities”. In its second section, the paper investigates the articulation and ramifications of the social question in Kais Saied’s new ongoing political project by reviewing his discursive body between the end of August 2022 and the end of May 2023. The choice of this period is framed by considering Articles 100 and 101 of the 2022 Constitution, respectively stipulating that the President of the Republic is the solemn policymaker and that his government is but the executive body of the President’s policies. This period witnessed a myriad of events, including legislative elections and the implementation of the new Parliament whose activity is yet in its early days and is therefore excluded from the current analysis. While both sections seem distinct in their substance and approach, they together serve, particularly in the absence of a clear correlation, the quest for echoes of a grounded discussion of social protection in Kais Saied’s agenda. The first section establishes a set of elements structural for the said discussion while the second section investigates traces of such a set in the President’s discourse. For this paper, social protection is understood in its socio-political sense and not in terms of technical systems of response confined to schemes of income-based categorization and the aid rationale. This definition recognizes social protection as the sum of social policies anchored in a rights-based approach and justice in accessing these rights. These policies range from food sovereignty to institutional and infrastructural efficiency, and from environmental hazards to education and housing. This definition rejects the association of social protection to “crisis” for crisis is but “the system working as intended”,4 a dangerous discursive element that serves the illusion of inequality and suffering as “temporary” phenomena of “exceptional” times.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Kais Saied, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

20. The Egyptian Army’s Counterinsurgency: History, Past Operations, and the Sinai Campaign

Author:
Hossam el-Hamalawy
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Why did the Egyptian military, which had long avoided serious involvement in the police-led 1990s domestic War on Terror and the later fight against armed militants in Sinai, embark on a major counterinsurgency in Sinai following the 2013 coup? Why did it take the Egyptian military almost a decade to pacify the peninsula at a very high cost for Sinai residents and the military itself, despite the small size of the insurgent force and the relatively confined terrain where it operated? This paper will attempt to answer those questions, but first, it examines some catastrophic precedents where the army deployed its personnel in counterinsurgency operations, before delving into the recent Sinai war and what it tells us about the military’s mindset.
Topic:
Security, Counterinsurgency, History, and Military
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, and Sinai Peninsula