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2. Two-pronged approaches: considerations in the US-Iran showdown
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Although both the United States and Iran say they do not want a direct military confrontation, such escalation by the United States necessarily invites an Iranian response, particularly since Tehran is butting heads with US regional allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iran
3. The assault on Tripoli: Haftar’s military calculations and the political ramifications
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Faced with a failed offensive and weakened political influence, Haftar may decide to focus his efforts on eastern Libya, which would give added impetus to partition and deepen existing divisions.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Tripoli
4. The “Deal of the Century”: The Final Stage of the Oslo Accords
- Author:
- Joseph Massad
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Donald Trump’s “Deal of the century” is the final phase of the 1993 Oslo Accords, which formalized the final liquidation of the Palestinian anti-colonial national struggle for independence and liberation. The “Deal” is nothing more or less than the last step of the so-called “peace process.” In order to understand the aims of the “Deal,” we need to go back to the Oslo Accords, which anticipated this step and assiduously prepared the ground for it. Since the beginning of the so-called “peace process” inaugurated in Madrid in 1991, the PLO, through its unofficial negotiators, conceded Palestinian rights one by one, in a gradual process culminating in the official PLO signing of the Declaration of Principles in Washington D.C. on September 13, 1993.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
5. The Saudi Predicament: The Domestic and Foreign Cost of Khashoggi’s Assassination
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Khashoggi’s assassination has seriously eroded Saudi Arabia’s reputation, interests and international relations. This puts the kingdom’s allies and MBS boosters in a tight spot, wondering if they should disassociate themselves from the kingdom to best preserve their own reputations.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia
6. The US Withdrawal from Syria: Causes, Contexts and Consequences
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Trump’s decision leaves the Kurdish nationalists of the KDP defenceless and, with their patron gone, will likely cause splits among Arab forces allied with Kurdish militiamen. Regionally, it sends a message to US allies in the Gulf about the Trump’s commitment to the Iran-containment strategy.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and Syria
7. The Haftar-Sarraj Rapprochement and Prospects for a Resolution of the Libyan Crisis
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Abstract The commander of Operation Dignity, Khalifa Haftar, shocked supporters even more than his opponents when he agreed to meet the Chairman of the Presidential Council, Fayez al-Sarraj, in Abu Dhabi on 2 May 2017, having previously refused to recognise him. This about-face may be attributable to the acquiescence of Haftar’s regional allies to direct international pressure. Reactions to the rapprochement between al-Sarraj and Haftar varied across the eastern and western fronts. Khalifa Haftar’s status in the east precludes serious opposition to his decisions, while in the western region a substantial segment of the population blessed the meeting in hopes that a détente would stop the deterioration of the security and economic situation. In contrast, western political and military factions were incensed, and some responded violently. Haftar’s acceptance of consensual agreement and reconciliation clearly grows out the waning possibility of assuming control of the country through decisive military action. From his standpoint, it therefore makes sense to attempt to impose his conditions through negotiations, which means the Skhirat agreement could collapse or undergo radical revisions.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Libya
8. The Significance of the ‘YES’ Vote to the Constitutional Amendments in Turkey and Its Repercussions
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey has officially announced that the Yes camp has won the constitutional amendments by just over 51 per cent, in contrast to the camp rejecting the amendments which received just over 48 per cent, although these results are not yet final. Surprisingly, an overwhelming majority of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), though its leadership and the majority of its parliamentary bloc supported the amendments, voted ‘no’. The five major cities – Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Adana and Antalya – all voted ‘no’. The Kurdish vote clearly played a very important role in the Yes supporters’ victory. In other words, those who said ‘yes’ to the changes in cities with a significant Kurdish population exceeded the total votes of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the MHP in the recent parliamentary elections. In the external sphere, the referendum’s outcome is not expected to have a direct impact on heated regional issues, particularly in Syria, as well as most regional issues.
- Topic:
- Democratization and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
9. The Battle of Western Mosul: Stakes and prospects
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper reviews the importance of western Mosul to all parties in the conflict: the Iraqi forces and their allies, on the one hand, and the Islamic State’s forces, on the other, and the obstacles to any of these parties resolving the conflict. It also touches on the extent of their forces and the clear dominance of the offensive forces, and it discusses the military strategies for the battle and potential outcomes in addition to the available options for the Islamic State (IS). It anticipates an end to the fight in favour of the Iraqi forces within a few weeks if the battle and its results progress at a similar pace to that of its first week. This will depend on any unaccounted for variables during the battle that would change the equation on the ground. It concludes by discussing the available options for IS after the battle ends, with the expectation that IS will fight until the end; while its commanders will inevitability lose the battle, this will not eliminate threats to security and stability in Iraq in the foreseeable future.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
10. Between Astana and Geneva: The outlook of conflicting agendas in the Syrian crisis
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of the Astana process, Moscow seems to be in a race against time to establish the foundations of a solution in Syria before arriving in Geneva: first, by reforming the opposition’s delegation to the negotiations, an effort Moscow has been working on ever since the military intervention in Syria began, and second, by redrawing the solution’s main parameters, which Moscow exerted great effort towards during marathon negotiations conducted with the former US Secretary of State, John Kerry. Through these negotiations, Moscow has been able to change the rules at Geneva by prioritising an agreement to change the constitution, followed by the formation of a non-sectarian representative government, and then calling for presidential elections with Assad’s participation, so ‘the Syrian people can decide his fate’.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil War, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Syria