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1. Taking Stock of the Arms Trade Treaty: Scope

Author:
Paul Holtom
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
The scope of the 2013 Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) refers to the conventional arms, ammunition/munitions, and parts and components that are covered by the treaty. ATT stakeholders are providing guidance and assistance for states parties to implement provisions on scope contained in Articles 2–5 of the Treaty. ATT Article 17(4) provides for the Conference of States Parties (CSP) to review the treaty’s scope to take into account relevant technological developments in the field of conventional arms. Now is an opportune moment to explore mechanisms to review the scope of the Treaty to keep it in line with, at least, the coverage of the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms (UNROCA). This is one of a series of five papers that are being produced as part of a wider project aimed at taking stock of specific aspects of the ATT—its scope, the application of the risk-assessment criteria, its processes and forums, universalization efforts, and international assistance to support ATT implementation.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Preventing Diversion: Comparing ATT and African Measures for Importing States

Author:
Paul Holtom and Benjamin Jongleux
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The diversion of conventional arms from licit to illicit entities can occur at any stage of the arms transfer chain. Preventing diversion therefore requires varied measures that effectively tackle the issue along the chain. The Arms Trade Treaty Working Group on Effective Treaty Implementation (WGETI) compiled a paper on such prevention measures, which relied heavily on the experiences of major exporting states. Several African sub-regional instruments contain measures to prevent and detect diversion for states that are not major exporters. This Small Arms Survey Briefing Paper compares diversion prevention measures for importing states as identified in the WGETI paper and African sub-regional measures. It finds that the African instruments lack articles on post-delivery cooperation with the exporting state, compliance with assurances on re-export or retransfer, in addition to measures to address identified cases of diversion. However, it also finds that these instruments contain prevention measures that are not in the WGETI paper, including provisions on modes of transport and official entry points. Incorporating experiences from ATT states parties from Africa can help inform discussions on the role of importing states to prevent diversion.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Regulation, Trafficking, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa

3. Trade Update 2019: Transfers, Transparency, and South-east Asia Spotlight

Author:
Michael Picard, Paul Holtom, and Fiona Mangan
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Authorized small arms imports to South-east Asia were worth at least USD 443 million in 2016, a 48 per cent increase from 2015, as revealed by the Small Arms Survey’s Trade Update 2019: Transfers, Transparency, and South-east Asia Spotlight. This increase, combined with the diversification in their small arms trading partners, highlights the region’s growing significance for international small arms flows. The increased value of imports for South-east Asia mirrors the growth in the value of the global small arms trade, which was worth USD 6.5 billion in 2016—a 13 per cent increase compared to 2015 and the highest ever since the Small Arms Survey began collecting trade data in 2001. Almost 90 per cent of the USD 751 million global increase can be attributed to the world’s top tier of small arms exporters—most notably from Austria, Croatia, and Germany. The Small Arms Survey’s Trade Update features the 2019 edition of the Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer—which scores the transparency of top and major exporters’ reporting on arms trade activities out of a maximum 25 points. The 2019 Barometer identifies Switzerland as the most transparent small arms exporter with 21.25 points for activities carried out in 2016, followed by Germany and the Netherlands with 19.5 points each, and Serbia and the United Kingdom with 18.25 points each. The least transparent major exporters were North Korea and Iran with zero points, Saudi Arabia with 0.5 points, and Israel with 1.25 points.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons, Arms Trade, and Transparency
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Croatia, Switzerland, Netherlands, Austria, and Southeast Asia

4. Implementing the Programme of Action and International Tracing Instrument: An Assessment of National Reports, 2012–17

Author:
Paul Holtom and Moshe Ben Hamo Yeger
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
In preparation for the Third Review Conference (RevCon3) to review progress made in the implementation of the Programme of Action to Prevent, Combat and Eradicate the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects (PoA) and the International Tracing Instrument (ITI), the Small Arms Survey released Implementing the Programme of Action and International Tracing Instrument: An Assessment of National Reports, 2012–17, a study presenting a comprehensive analysis of national reports on PoA and ITI implementation submitted during 2012–17. It identifies the current state of play, progress in implementation, and assistance opportunities.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Regulation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Trade Update 2018: Sub-Saharan Africa in Focus

Author:
Paul Holtom and Irene Pavesi
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The 2018 edition of the Small Arms Survey’s Trade Update—analyzing the small arms authorized trade in 2015—finds that the global authorized small arms trade was worth at least USD 5.7 billion in 2015, with small arms ammunition exports valued at USD 2.3 billion. The total value represents a seven per cent decrease between 2014 and 2015, mostly due to a USD 198 million decline in exports by top exporting countries the United States, Brazil, and Italy. Sub-Saharan Africa suffers disproportionately from the negative impacts of small arms and ammunition flows on peace, security, stability, and development, yet it only accounts for less than five per cent of the estimated value of the authorized global small arms trade. Due to historically low levels of openness regarding sub-Saharan African small arms production and transfers, identifying major African importers and exporters—as well as suppliers—remains a challenge. Trade Update 2018: Sub-Saharan Africa in Focus uses multiple open sources to tentatively map major sub-Saharan African producers, exporters, and importers of small arms. The Small Arms Survey identified that at least 15 sub-Saharan African states industrially produce small arms and/or ammunition, namely: Angola, Cameroon, Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mali, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Official data indicates that South Africa was the largest sub-Saharan African exporter and importer of small arms during 2013–15. Significant importers during this period include: Angola, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Malawi, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, and Uganda. The largest transparent small arms exporters to sub-Saharan Africa for 2013–15 appear to be Bulgaria, Serbia, France, Spain, and Italy, in descending order of importance. Exporters such as China, the Russian Federation, and Turkey also concluded significant deals to supply small arms to sub-Saharan Africa during this period.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Political stability, Arms Trade, Peace, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

6. Trade Update 2017: Out of the Shadows

Author:
Paul Holtom and Irene Pavesi
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The Small Arms Survey’s Trade Update 2017: Out of the Shadows provides an overview of the international trade in small arms and light weapons in 2014, identifies the world’s top and major exporters of small arms and light weapons, and assesses changes in trade patterns from 2013 to 2014. The Update also presents the 2017 edition of the Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer, which scores key exporters from the most to the least transparent. The main findings include the following: In 2014, the top exporters of small arms (those with annual exports of at least USD 100 million), in descending order, were: the United States, Italy, Brazil, Germany, South Korea, Austria, Turkey, the Russian Federation, the Czech Republic, Belgium, Croatia, Israel, Spain, Switzerland, and Japan. Brazil exported more than USD 500 million worth of small arms for the first time during 2001–14. In 2014, the top importers of small arms (those with annual imports of at least USD 100 million), in descending order, were: the United States, Canada, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Australia, Iraq, France, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. The United States remains the world’s largest importer, but the value of its imports declined for the first time since 2001, from USD 2.5 billion in 2013 to USD 2.2 billion in 2014. The international small arms trade was worth at least USD 6 billion in 2014. Ammunition accounted for 38 per cent of global transfers. The value of ‘military firearm’ shipments increased by 49 per cent between 2013 and 2014, from USD 475 million to USD 708 million. In contrast, the value of the trade in pistols and revolvers declined by 16 per cent, from USD 1 billion to USD 845 million. The 2017 edition of the Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer identifies Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and Serbia as the most transparent top and major small arms exporters. Iran, Israel, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are the least transparent major exporters. The average score in the 2017 Barometer is 11.33 out of 25 points. The areas that have seen the most improvement over the past year are: comprehensiveness (+17 per cent), access and consistency (+12 per cent), licences denied (+11 per cent), and clarity (+4 per cent). In their first ATT annual reports, Austria, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, and Liberia—none of which had reported small arms transfers to the UN Register—provided information on small arms transfers, thus increasing overall transparency on international small arms transfers. Although Iran, North Korea, and the UAE rarely, if ever, recorded small arms exports worth USD 10 million or more in Comtrade, Survey research indicates that they are major small arms exporters. It is more difficult to determine the status of Saudi Arabia, which appears to be a significant re-exporter of small arms.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Arms Trade, Transparency, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Implementing an arms trade treaty: mapping assistance to strengthen arms transfer controls

Author:
Mark Bromley and Paul Holtom
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
It is widely recognized that many states parties to an arms trade treaty (ATT) will need assistance to fulfil their treaty obligations. The issue of international assistance has been consistently raised by United Nations member states throughout the UN process of negotiating an ATT.For example, states will need assistance to establish and strengthen their legislative and administrative frameworks as well as their licensing and enforcement capacities in order to enable them to exert greater control over international transfers of conventional arms. The creation of an ATT will require the expansion of existing assistance programmes as well as the development of new approaches and efforts specifically designed to assist states with treaty implementation. For example, the European Union (EU) already provides funds for technical and material assistance for states to develop or strengthen transfer control systems and is willing to expand these activities to help states implement an ATT. International assistance has been promoted as one of the positive outcomes for states parties to an ATT that are neither major exporters nor importers of conventional arms.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and United Nations

8. China's Energy and Security Relations with Russia: Hopes, Frustrations and Uncertainties

Author:
Linda Jakobson, Paul Holtom, Dean Knox, and Jingchao Peng
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Fifteen years have passed since China and Russia formed a 'strategic cooperative partnership' in 1996, and 2011 marks the 10th anniversary of their 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation. Considering the significant changes that have taken place in China and Russia over this period, it is well worth assessing the meaning of the China–Russia 'strategic partnership' and their declared 'good-neighbourly' relations.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Energy Policy, Oil, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and China

9. Implementing an Arms Trade Treaty: Lessons on Reporting and Monitoring from Existing Mechanisms

Author:
Mark Bromley and Paul Holtom
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
The aims, scope and coverage of an arms trade treaty (ATT) will determine the format and types of information to be provided to an ATT reporting mechanism. It is expected that one of the obligations under the mechanism will be for states parties to provide information on their arms transfers and transfer control systems. A key consideration when designing an ATT reporting mechanism is its future interaction with existing reporting mechanisms. In this context, voluntary reporting of information on arms transfers to the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms (UNROCA) and of information on transfer control systems to the UN Programme of Action to Prevent, Combat and Eradicate the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in A ll Its Aspects (POA) and the UN Exchange of National Legislation on Transfer of Arms, Military Equipment and Dual-use Goods and Technology (UN Legislation Exchange) are particularly relevant. Other UN instruments that provide potential lessons and areas of potential over- lap, include UN Security Council resolutions imposing arms embargoes and UN Security Council Resolution 1540, which obligate states to provide information on aspects of national transfer controls. At the regional level, member states of the European Union (EU), the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) are requested to provide information on transfer controls and international arms transfers, while members of the Organization of American States (OAS) are required to provide information on arms acquisitions. It is inevitable that the reporting requirements under an ATT will overlap with some of these instruments, particularly the voluntary UN reporting mechanisms. If an ATT is to increase transparency, then existing obligations should serve as the baseline for reporting under the new treaty.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Europe

10. Transit and trans-shipment controls in an arms trade treaty

Author:
Mark Bromley and Paul Holtom
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
The drafting of an arms trade treaty (ATT) represents a unique opportunity to define common state responsibilities for exercising control over the different stages of the arms transfer process and, as a result, prevent illicit and destabilizing arms transfers. A large proportion of arms transfers transit through third countries. Therefore transit controls provide opportunities to strengthen state control at a stage when arms shipments are particularly vulnerable to diversion to illicit markets.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Treaties and Agreements