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1. Thinking Beyond the Pandemic: Monetary Policy Challenges in the Medium- to Long-Term

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic era. It must also think in advance about how to avoid a policy trap coming from fiscal dominance. This paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 deals with the economic characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the effectiveness of the monetary policy response measures undertaken. In Chapter 3, we analyse the monetary policy decisions of the ECB (and other major CBs for comparison) and their effectiveness in achieving the declared policy goals in the short term. Chapter 4 is devoted to an analysis of the policy challenges which may be faced by the ECB and other major CBs once the pandemic emergency comes to its end. Chapter 5 contains a summary and the conclusions of our analysis.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Trade, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

2. Economic crisis in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Marek Dabrowski and Marta Dominguez-Jimenez
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
In the 2010s, the economic situation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) deteriorated as a result of lower oil and other commodity prices, a new round of domestic political instability, continuous intra-regional conflicts, stalled economic and governance reforms and, finally, the COVID-19 pandemic. The growth of real GDP, which slowed after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, further decelerated in the second half of the 2010s and became negative in 2020 as result of the COVID-19 shock. Fiscal balances have deteriorated, even in the oil-exporting countries, and public debt has grown rapidly. MENA countries continue to face numerous long-term socio-economic and institutional challenges including high unemployment (especially youth unemployment), low female labour-market participation rates, the poor quality of education, costly and ineffective public sectors, high military and security spending, high energy subsidies and trade protectionism. Only comprehensive long-term reform programmes can address these challenges. The European Union is MENA’s second largest trading partner after the region itself, and is one of two main sources of foreign direct investment and a major aid donor. However, given the critical importance of the MENA region to its own security and stability, the EU’s engagement in conflict resolution and in supporting economic and political transformation of the region is insufficient and should be intensified. The EU should also update and upgrade its existing association agreements with the countries of the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean, including their free trade provisions.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Governance, European Union, Trade, COVID-19, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

3. Increasing the International Role of the Euro: A Long Way to Go

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The euro is the second most important global currency after the US dollar. However, its international role has not increased since its inception in 1999. The private sector prefers using the US dollar rather than the euro because the financial market for US dollar-denominated assets is larger and deeper; network externalities and inertia also play a role. Increasing the attractiveness of the euro outside the euro area requires, among others, a proactive role for the European Central Bank and completing the Banking Union and Capital Market Union.
Topic:
European Union, Economic Growth, Central Bank, Currency, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

4. Virtual currencies and their potential impact on financial markets and monetary policy

Author:
Lukasz Janikowski and Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Virtual currencies are a contemporary form of private money. Thanks to their technological properties, their global transaction networks are relatively safe, transparent, and fast. This gives them good prospects for further development. However, they remain unlikely to challenge the dominant position of sovereign currencies and central banks, especially those in major currency areas. As with other innovations, virtual currencies pose a challenge to financial regulators, in particular because of their anonymity and trans-border character.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Currency, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

5. Potential impact of financial innovation on financial services and monetary policy

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The recent wave of financial innovation, particularly innovation related to the application of information and communication technologies, poses a serious challenge to the financial industry’s business model in both its banking and non-banking components. It has already revolutionised financial services and, most likely, will continue to do so in the future. If not responded to adequately and timely by regulators, it may create new risks to financial stability, as occurred before the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. However, financial innovation will not seriously affect the process of monetary policymaking and is unlikely to undermine the ability of central banks to perform their price stability mission.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Economic Growth, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Global Focus, and European Union

6. Interaction between monetary policy and bank regulation: lessons for the ECB

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The European Central Bank (ECB) recently became engaged in macro-prudential policies and the micro-prudential supervision of the largest Euro area banks. These new tasks should help complete financial integration, and make the Euro area more resilient to financial instability risks. However, the multiplicity of mandates and instruments involves a risk of their inconsistency which could compromise the ECB’s core price-stability mandate as well as its independence. The experience of central banks during the recent global financial crisis confirms that such risks are not purely hypothetical.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Banks, Macroeconomics, Innovation, Trade, and European Central Bank
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

7. EU cooperation with non-member neighboring countries: the principle of variable geometry

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In this study the author analyzes the experience of the European Union in cooperation with non-member neighboring countries, to which the EU’s integration process and institutions are both available. On the one hand, several non-member countries are interested in close cooperation or integration with the organization because of their future membership aspirations or simply because they consider the EU an important economic and political partner. On the other hand, the EU itself is also interested in building such close relations, for economic but often also for geopolitical and security reasons.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Eastern Europe

8. Is Free Trade with the EU Good for Ukraine?

Author:
Marek Dabrowski and Svitlana Taran
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The negotiations on the Association Agreement (AA) between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine, including its trade component, i.e., the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), were completed in December 2011. The agreement is practically ready to be signed, if the EU’s concerns related to the deteriorating political freedoms in Ukraine are addressed. The ball is now in Ukraine’s court and the correct and rapid response is crucial for the country’s future. Both the AA and the DCFTA offer Ukraine an opportunity to deepen its political and economic relations with the EU and modernize its own economy and state institutions. However, if fundamental economic, political, and institutional reforms are not accelerated and conducted in a more comprehensive and consistent way, the prospect of implementing the DCFTA (and its potential benefits) will come under question.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Free Trade, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

9. How to improve the economic and social performance of Eastern and Southern Mediterranean countries

Author:
Luc De Wulf and Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The Eastern and Southern Mediterranean region has many advantages. Its proximity to European markets and its strategic location along the Mediterranean Sea help facilitate the trade of goods among Europe, Asia and Africa. The region has great historical and civilizational importance. It also has plentiful supplies of oil and natural gas resources and great demographic potential. Yet despite these many advantages, the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean region remains relatively backward in economic and social terms and is rightly considered a potential source of social and political instability. In this brief the authors analyze the key challenges facing the MED11 countries and propose policy measures that could improve the region’s economic and social performance.
Topic:
Markets, Macroeconomics, Trade, Economic Integration, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, and Mediterranean

10. How to improve the economic and social performance of Eastern and Southern Mediterranean countries

Author:
Luc De Wulf and Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The Eastern and Southern Mediterranean region has many advantages. Its proximity to European markets and its strategic location along the Mediterranean Sea help facilitate the trade of goods among Europe, Asia and Africa. The region has great historical and civilizational importance. It also has plentiful supplies of oil and natural gas resources and great demographic potential. Yet despite these many advantages, the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean region remains relatively backward in economic and social terms and is rightly considered a potential source of social and political instability. In this brief the authors analyze the key challenges facing the MED11 countries and propose policy measures that could improve the region’s economic and social performance.
Topic:
Globalization, Macroeconomics, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Mediterranean