Weeks into resumed fighting between the Ethiopian government and regional rebel militias, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), rivals have agreed to the African Union’s (AU) invitation to sit at the negotiation table, set to be held in Pretoria, South Africa. The first round of negotiations has been delayed, however, indicating tensions and the possibility of returning to armed conflict again.
Topic:
African Union, Mediation, Armed Conflict, and Regional Politics
Iraqi political forces and government representatives, at a meeting on September 5, agreed on six recommendations, which include the creation of a technical team to shape views and perceptions and reconcile different views to pave the way for early elections. The meeting was held as part of the second round of the national dialogue, held despite the Sadrist Movement’s rejection of the dialogue.
The first round, held on August 17, was attended by leaders of the Shiite Coordination Framework, leaders from other political forces as well as the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Iraq Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Civil Unrest, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Dialogue
Months of political and military stalemate speak volumes of the effects of regional and international intervention in Libya. And with multitude of players seek to break the deadlock, Libya may brace itself for a new political episode that might transpire in the coming period.
Topic:
Politics, Military Intervention, Conflict, and International Community
The future of talks between Israel and Lebanon on delineating a shared maritime border, mediated by US Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs, Amos Hochstein remains uncertain following an exchange of escalatory statements from Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah about the disputed Karish natural gas field. Both sides suggested that the tensions can escalate into an all-out war unless their conditions are met. However, Lebanese officials including President Michel Aoun stated that the negotiations to demarcate the border are in the final stages.
Topic:
Oil, Treaties and Agreements, Maritime, and Energy
Somalia recently witnessed a remarkable escalation of attacks by the al-Shabab, not only inside Somalia but also in the Horn of Africa, especially in Kenya and Ethiopia, as the terror group is seeking to expand across the region.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Al-Shabaab, and Regional Politics
EU’s high representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, said on August 15 that both the EU and US were studying Iran’s written response and hoping to restore the tattered nuclear deal. There was no timeline given on when the world powers would respond, but Iran’s official media said Tehran expected a reply in two days.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Nonproliferation, and Nuclear Energy
Across Kenya, anticipating supporters of outgoing government candidate Raila Odinga had anxiously been listening in on radios or staring at television screens, waiting for the country’s presidential elections results. Their favourite candidate had lost the elections. At Nairobi’s national election centre, Chairman of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), Wafula Chebukati, had announced Ruto’s narrow win but fled the building quickly after. Chaos ensued: police forces stormed the hall as Odinga supporters punched through to the stage. Chairman Chebukati left the centre under police protection, national music blaring through the speakers. The country seems to be on the verge of another wave of violent unrests.
Topic:
Populism, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
Tunisian President Kais Saied, on June 20, received a new draft constitution written by Sadok Belaid, Coordinator of the High National Advisory Committee for New Republic. The draft was not final as some chapters were reviewed and amended before it was published in the official gazette on June 30. The draft new constitution will be put to a referendum on July 25.
Topic:
Reform, Constitution, Domestic Politics, and Kais Saied
Algeria, Niger, and Nigeria held talks on June 20 and 21, 2022 in the Nigerian capital Abuja on the revival of a decades-old project to pipe gas across the Sahara, a potential opportunity for Europe to diversify its gas sources, media reported. Alegria’s Minister of Energy and Mines Mohamed Arkab said the meeting was “important and successful”, setting the “first building block” for a project that’s been just an idea for over 15 years. It was agreed to continue consultations through the technical team that was formed in Abuja and tasking it to prepare the necessary feasibility studies for the project. It was also agreed that the three ministers should meet again no later than the end of July in Algeria.
The 14th BRICS summit concluded on June 24 amid Western sanctions on Russia and rising tension between China and the US over Taiwan. The two-day event took place via video and was hosted by Beijing.
Topic:
Economy, BRICS, Polarization, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, Taiwan, South Africa, Brazil, and United States of America