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1. Strategic Recalibration: Turkey's Decision to End the Oil Agreement with Iraq

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On July 21, 2025, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced his government's decision not to renew the agreements and protocols signed between Türkiye and Iraq since 1973 regarding the crude oil pipeline extending from Iraq to Türkiye. The agreement, which facilitated oil transport from Kirkuk in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to the Yumurtalık oil port in southeastern Türkiye, has played a strategic role in delivering millions of barrels of Iraqi oil through the Turkish port of Ceyhan to global markets. Originally renewed in 2010 for fifteen years, the agreement is scheduled to expire on July 27, 2026.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Oil, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

2. European Shift: The Path Toward Palestinian State Recognition

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Western and European announcements regarding intentions to recognize a Palestinian state in September 2025 have accelerated, coinciding with the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting. These developments emerge amid intensifying criticism of Israeli positions in both Western media and social platforms, creating mounting domestic pressure on European governments to adopt clearer stances.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Palestinians, UN General Assembly, and Recognition
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

3. An analysis of the impact of Turkish attacks on Syria on future normalization efforts between the two nations

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
In a televised address after a Cabinet meeting on January 16, 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed his country's commitment to eliminating what he referred to as "terrorist hideouts" in Syria. These areas extend from Tel Rifaat to Ain al-Arab, and from Hasakah to Manbij. Erdogan stressed, “Our military presence beyond our borders is critical to the national security of our country and for the peace of our citizens. There’s no turning back from this.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Normalization, Rapprochement, Bashar al-Assad, and PKK
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

4. Motives for the Resurgence of the Sadrist Movement in Iraq

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The Sadrist Movement has recently increased its activities throughout Iraq, hinting at a possible return to the country's political landscape. This development follows the movement's vow to boycott the political process in July 2022.
Topic:
Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Muqtada al-Sadr
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

5. Shifting Equations: Behind the Armed Factions' Attacks on Syrian Government-Controlled Areas

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On November 27, 2024, Syrian armed factions, led by what is known as "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" (HTS), formerly "Al-Nusra Front" and once affiliated with Al-Qaeda, launched extensive attacks against Syrian government-controlled areas in an operation dubbed "Operation Deterrence of Aggression." These armed factions successfully seized Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, and made advancements towards Hama. This comes amid efforts by the Syrian government to launch a counteroffensive against the armed factions. The armed factions declared that the aim of their surprise attack was to deliver a "preemptive strike" against the Syrian government forces, marking the first significant assault since the Turkish-Russian ceasefire signed in March 2020.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Al Qaeda, Syrian War, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

6. De-escalation Efforts: What Tehran wants from a prisoner swap deal with Washington?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
US National Security Council Spokesperson Adrienne Waston, in a statement on August 10, 2023, affirmed that Iran has released from prison five Americans who were detained and has placed them on house arrest. US citizens Siamak Namazi, Morad Tahbaz, Emad Shargi, and two others were released from Tehran’s notorious Evin prison to house arrest. The US official described their release as “an encouraging step” and stressed that Washigton will continue efforts to bring them “all back home in the United States.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

7. A Bid to Contain Pressure: What are the motives behind Iranian President's East Africa tour?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi went on a trip to Africa from July 11 to 13, 2023, during which he visited Kenya, Uganda, and Zimbabwe on invitations from the leaders of the three countries, President William Ruto, Yoweri Museveni and President Emmerson Mnangagwa, respectively. Raisi led a high-level delegation including First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Health Minister Behrouz Aghaei, and Minister of Agriculture Seyyed Javad Sadati Nejad, and several other high-ranking officials and businessmen.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Iran, Middle East, Zimbabwe, and East Africa

8. Partnership Diversification: What are the implications of the sixth round of the Russia-GCC strategic dialogue?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Following a five-year hiatus, Russia and the Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, held the sixth round of their strategic dialogue in Moscow on July 10, 2023, at a critical juncture. The meeting has several implications aligning with the Gulf’s endeavors that began in the wake of the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic and later took shape in the wake of the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Diversification, Dialogue, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Gulf Nations

9. Existing Dispute: Does the new budget set the stage for a fresh phase of conflict in Iraq?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On 12 June, 2023, Iraq's Council of Representatives approved a three-year budget (2023-2025) of 198.9 trillion dinars (USD 153 billion), including the budget for Iraq's Kurdistan region. This came around three months after the government filed the draft budget, making it the largest in Iraqi history.
Topic:
Development, Oil, Budget, Domestic Politics, Public Spending, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

10. The Israeli ThreatL What is driving the renewed escalation between Iran and Azerbaijan?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The Ministry of Interior, Security Agency, and Prosecutor General’s Office of Azerbaijan announced in a joint statement on Tuesday, May 16, 2023, that nine individuals were arrested on charges of planning to overthrow the government by force, assassinate prominent figures and senior Azerbaijani officials. The statement indicated that they had connections to Iranian intelligence agencies, and that the cell was composed of a person named Ruhollah Akhoundzadeh and his son Mursal, along with seven others working under his supervision. On his part, the spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Kanaani, rejected the accusations in a statement on May 18, denying any official or unofficial relationship between these individuals and Iran. He affirmed that imprisoning individuals on the pretext of their connection to Iran is unacceptable.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Escalation
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Azerbaijan