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2. The US Presidential Election: Unprecedentedly High Stakes
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- A combination of unexpected factors has led to the nomination of Kamala Harris as a replacement for Joe Biden, ushering the US elections into a new phase. This development could enhance the mechanism of political integration, but it might also lead to further exclusion, which could cause extremism and chaos, and weaken institutions.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Institutions, Donald Trump, Polarization, Presidential Elections, Kamala Harris, and Political Integration
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
3. Erdogan wins the presidency: Causes, implications and horizons
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- It is clear that identity politics still carry much weight in Turkey, that the conservative voting bloc remains the largest, and that the majority of this bloc continues to believe in Erdogan and his ability to lead the country.
- Topic:
- Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
4. President Hadi's Resignation: Dangers and Alternatives
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- With President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi’s resignation, Yemen lost a leader who had the ability to facilitate considerable consensus among diverse political forces involved in fierce conflicts over various issues, including the territorial conflict between north and south; the sectarian conflict between Zaidis and Shafiis; the political conflict between the old guard (represented by deposed president Ali Abdullah Saleh) and the new post-revolution regime headed by Hadi; and the armed conflict between al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Yemeni armed forces. As it stands, it appears that none of these warring forces can single-handedly force their will on the nation. Rather, it is clear they need to somehow work together and attain a degree of regional and international recognition. This also requires that these forces reposition themselves accordingly. This paper addresses the dynamics that drove Yemen to this state of affairs, and discusses probable scenarios for Yemen’s future.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Conflict, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
5. Turkish Parliamentary Elections: Risks and Predictions
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s president and prime minister have not hidden the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) intention to write a new constitution which converts the system of governance from parliamentary to presidential. In some ways, the 7 June 2015 Turkish parliamentary elections, the fourth parliamentary elections the AKP will contest, will decide the future of the country’s constitution and its system of governance. The most difficult factor to predict in this election has been the Kurdish vote, because the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) ran candidates as independents in the last parliamentary elections and received six per cent of the vote share. This time, the party has decided to run under its party banner, which will surely increase their vote share. The only question is how much.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Parliamentarism
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
6. Armed Struggle for Power in South Sudan
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Thousands of people were injured or killed in South Sudan after clashes broke out in its capital, Juba, between pro-regime Salva Kiir supporters and forces loyal to fired Vice President Riek Machar. Nearly 200,000 citizens have fled their homes as a result. Mashar and a number of leaders from the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement (SPLM) were fired last July by President Kiir, who announced recently that his forces successfully foiled the coup attempt led by Machar. Machar denies the coup allegations and accuses Kiir of attempting to oust his political opponents. International and regional mediation efforts are probable given the conflict is limited to power and wealth divisions and because the two sides share close tribal origins (Kiir from the Dinka tribe and Machar from the Nuer tribe) – neither is capable of ousting the other and one cannot rule the country without the other. Finally, the costs of conflict would be larger than the benefits of agreement, so this paper argues it is in their respective best interests to come to a consensus on oil exports, a key area of contention.
- Topic:
- Oil, Domestic Politics, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
7. Erdogan and Gülen: Political Battle Waged in Court
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- While Erdogan saw the relationship between his Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Fethullah Gülen’s movement as a natural reflection of mobilized Islamic conservative forces, the relationship has been a subject of debate and many leaders of the party felt that a clash between the two sides was inevitable. Although the movement’s rhetoric has been centred on distancing itself from politics, it has not hidden its desire to play a political role or be represented within the state apparatus. The Gülen movement was helpful to Erdogan in the past in his campaign against the Kemalist current in the administration and the army, but with the demise of this common threat, differences have emerged between the former allies on the administration of the Turkish state.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
8. Renewed Escalation of Erdogan-Gulen Conflict Increases Internal Polarisation
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- A massive wiretapping operation by Gulen affiliates in the government has uncovered alleged corruption by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his family, leading to renewed escalation of the crisis between the two sides. These allegations are meant to undermine Erdogan and his party (Justice and Development or AKP) politically and tarnish his image as a clean leader. Erdogan has responded by denying the allegations and labelling them unethical, escalating an ongoing exchange of attacks on moral credibility between the two sides.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Fethullah Gülen, Polarization, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
9. Turkish Local Elections: Background, Results and Implications
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s local elections were held Sunday, March 30, 2014 under what can be considered turbulent political circumstances. These elections were key for a number of reasons: they were the third ones in which the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) participated in since its ascent to power in 2002, the large margin by which the AKP won and finally, because a great number of regional and international players considered the elections a test of the AKP and its president’s worthiness and benefit. Presidential elections will also be held in August of this year, and current leader of the AKP and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will continue to face challenges given a severely polarised political atmosphere in the country. This is particularly true given that the presidential position he strives for is seen in Turkey’s political culture as a unifying national position distant from partisan squabbles.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Political System
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
10. Faltering Authority: Sisi’s Rule in the Face of Polarisation
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Starting July 2013, Egypt began to experience unprecedented polarisation and civil strife. The country has not experienced this level of violence, arbitrary detention and even killing in recent history, and Field Marshal Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has responded by imposing an increasingly tightening security strategy. In the short term, this strategy will strengthen his opponents and increase his isolation – his policy of indiscriminate repression has widened the coalition of those opposed to his authority. The opposition, then, is no longer limited to the Muslim Brotherhood and now includes revolutionary youth groups as well as labourers, students and others. Furthermore, Sisi’s isolation of those who helped him overthrow Morsi has cost him political capital needed to extend his authority and isolate his opponents.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, Polarization, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt